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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

JIm's Afternoon Markets Report--May 16

May 17, 2012

Wednesday Evening, May 16-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed up $0.47 at $116.90
today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh
four-week high today and saw more short covering. The key
“outside markets” were again bearish for the cattle market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were lower. The fact that cattle were able to rally
amid bearish outside markets is a bullish clue. A three-
week-old uptrend from the April low is in place. Cattle
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$117.70. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $114.00. First resistance is seen at
$117.50 and then at $117.70. First support is seen at
$116.50 and then at $116.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

August feeder cattle closed up $0.65 at $158.32 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw more short
covering and bargain hunting. Bulls have regained the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$159.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $155.00. First resistance is seen at $158.90 and
then at $159.75. First support is seen at $158.00 and then
at $157.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

June lean hogs closed up $0.10 at $86.50 today. Prices
closed near the session high today. Tepid short covering in
a bear market was featured. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for hogs again today as the U.S. dollar index was
higher, while crude oil prices were lower. My bias is that
a market low is in place for hogs. However, hog bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage at present.
The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls
is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$88.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$84.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$86.87 and then at $87.50. First support is seen at today’s
low of $85.90 and then at $85.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed up 22 cents at $6.19
1/4 today. Prices closed near the session high again today
on short covering and bargain hunting amid some more fresh
demand for U.S. corn. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for corn again today as the U.S. dollar index was
higher, while crude oil prices were lower. Yet, corn posted
solid gains, which is an early clue that a market low is in
place. The bulls did gain some fresh upside technical
momentum today. My bias is that it’s still going to take a
serious weather market scare this summer to jump-start any
serious price uptrend in the corn market. Corn bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $6.34 3/4. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00.
First resistance for July corn is seen at today’s high of
$6.20 3/4 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at $6.15
and then at $6.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July soybeans closed up 8 1/4 cents at $14.21 1/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for soybeans today as the U.S. dollar
index was higher, while crude oil prices were lower. Yet,
soybeans rallied which is an early clue that the market has
put in a near-term low. Bean bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $14.40 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at this week’s low of $13.76. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.23 and then at
$14.40. First support is seen at $14.00 and then at today’s
low of $13.86 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

July soybean meal closed up $7.10 at $424.30 today. Prices
closed near the session high today. Meal bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage and have regained
some upside momentum. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the May high of $437.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of $398.40. First resistance comes in at $425.00
and then at $428.00. First support is seen at $420.00 and
then at $417.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

July bean oil closed down 103 points at 50.44 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh five-
month low today. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
bean oil again today as the U.S. dollar index was higher,
while crude oil prices were lower. Bean oil bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Bean oil prices have
been trending lower for six weeks. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of 52.43 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 51.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 51.52 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
50.05 cents and then at 50.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 30 1/4 cents at $6.38 3/4
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market and some bargain hunting on
some dry and hot weather in the U.S. plains. Wheat bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at
$6.55 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.39 3/4 and
then at $6.50. First support lies at $6.30 and then at
$6.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 28 1/2 cents at $6.56 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw more
short covering and bargain hunting. The bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $6.65 1/2. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the May low
of $6.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.56
and then at $6.65 1/2. First support is seen at $6.50 and
then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July oats closed up 7 1/4 cents at $3.37 1/2 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and saw short covering.
Bulls regained the slight near-term technical advantage
today. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the April low of $3.22. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the May high of $3.50. First
support lies at $3.35 and then at $3.32. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $3.37 1/2 and then at $3.40.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed up 45 points at 20.85 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
more short covering in a bear market. Prices also scored a
mildly bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
Prices Monday hit a 12-month low. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for sugar again today as the U.S. dollar index
was higher, while crude oil prices were lower. Yet, sugar
posted decent gains which does begin to suggest a market
bottom is in place. Sugar bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the May high of 21.17
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
20.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
20.87 cents and then at 21.00 cents. First support is seen
at 20.50 cents and then at 20.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

July coffee closed down 125 points at 177.15 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for coffee again today as the U.S.
dollar index was higher, while crude oil prices were lower.
Coffee prices are in an 8.5-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at the May high of 185.40 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 170.00
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 180.00 cents and
then at today’s high of 182.15 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 175.50 cents and then at this week’s low
of 173.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July cocoa closed up $11 at $2,279 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and scored a bullish “outside
day” up on the daily bar chart. Cocoa bears still have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of
$2,363. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,146. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of $2,303 and then at $2,325. First support is seen at
$2,250 and then at today’s low of $2,227. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5

July cotton closed down 219 points at 79.97 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
1.5-year low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
cotton again today as the U.S. dollar index was higher,
while crude oil prices were sharply lower. The cotton bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage. There are no
early clues of a market low being close at hand. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 82.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 78.00
cents and then at today’s high of 79.34 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 76.85 cents and then at
76.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July orange juice closed down 120 points at $1.1280 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
contract low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
FCOJ today as the U.S. dollar index was higher, while crude
oil prices were lower. FCOJ bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. There are still no early
clues of a market low being close at hand. Prices are in a
3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.3000. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.1000. First resistance is seen at $1.1500 and
then at $1.1900. First support is seen at today’s contract
low of $1.1035 and then at $1.0900. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.

July lumber futures closed down $2.80 at $282.50 today.
Prices closed near the session high. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $275.00. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $288.00. First
resistance is seen at $284.00 and then at this week’s high
of $287.00. First support is seen at $280.00 and then at
today’s low of $278.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $25.20 an ounce at
$1,531.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh 10-month low. The key “outside markets”
were again in a bearish posture for gold today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and the crude oil market was lower.
Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently.
Now, gold prices are nearing major psychological support at
the $1,500.00 level. A move below $1,500 would begin to
produce more important longer-term technical damage to then
call into question the longer-term price uptrend on the
monthly chart that has been in place since 2001. Gold bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage. A 2.5-month-
old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold
bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $1,585.80. Bears' next near-term downside price
objective is closing prices below major support at
$1,500.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1,552.20 and then at Tuesday’s high of $1,564.40. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1,526.70 and then at
$1,520.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

July silver futures closed down $1.19 an ounce at $26.895
today. Prices closed near the session low again today and
hit another fresh 4.5-month low. The key “outside markets”
were in a bearish posture for silver again today, as the
U.S. dollar index was higher and the crude oil market was
lower. Silver prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The silver bears have the solid near-
term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $29.00 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
$26.50. First resistance is seen at $27.50 and then at
$28.00. Next support is seen today’s low of at $26.73 and
then at $26.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

July N.Y. copper closed down 580 points 345.90 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low again today and hit
another fresh four-month low. The key “outside markets”
were in a bearish posture for copper again today, as the
U.S. dollar index was higher and the crude oil market was
lower. Copper bears have the near-term technical advantage
and have gained downside technical momentum this week.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of 367.45 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of 340.60 cents.
First resistance is seen at 350.00 cents and then at
today’s high of 351.50 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 344.90 cents and then at 342.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: June crude oil closed down $1.23 a barrel at
$92.75 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a
fresh 6.5-month low. The bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. A stronger U.S. dollar index
today was again bearish for the crude market. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $98.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $90.00. First
resistance is seen at $93.00 and then at $94.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $91.81 and then at
$91.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

June heating oil closed down 410 points at $2.8917 today.
Prices closed near the session low and hit another fresh
4.5-month low today. Bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage as prices are in a 2.5-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Prices this week have
seen a breakout from a bearish pennant pattern on the daily
bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $2.8000.
First resistance lies at today’s high of $2.9377 and then
at this week’s high of $2.9636. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.8908 and then at $2.8750. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

June (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 293 points at
$2.9136 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh four-month low. Bears have the near-term
technical advantage. A seven-week-old downtrend is in place
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.0500. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.8500. First resistance is seen at $2.9500 and then at
$2.9766. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.9087
and then at $2.9000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

June natural gas closed up 12.5 cents at $2.625 today.
Prices closed near the session high again today and hit a
fresh 10-week high. More short covering and bargain hunting
buying were featured today. The bulls have upside near-term
technical momentum. The bears do still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage, however. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.75. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$2.387. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.631
and then at $2.65. First support is seen at $2.531 and then
at $2.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 9 points at 1.2728 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today and hit another fresh four-month low. Bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3000.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at the January low
of 1.2645. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s
high of 1.2761 and then at 1.2800. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.2683 and then at 1.2645. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 3 points at 1.2462 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
gentle two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.2700. Bears' next downside
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at 1.2233. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of 1.2553 and then at last week’s high of 1.2595.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2416 and then at
1.2375. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 10 points at 1.0597 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
four-month low. The bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage in the Swissy. Prices are in a 2.5-
month-old downtrend. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.0800. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of 1.0489. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0626 and then at
1.0700. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0563 and
then at 1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 36 points at .9789
today. Prices closed near mid-range low today hit another
fresh 4.5-month low. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage and have gained more downside momentum this week.
Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0200. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at .9800.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9935 and then
at this week’s high of 1.0001 and then at 1.0046. Next
support is seen at today’s low of .9838 and then at .9800.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 72 points at .9875
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh four-month low. Bulls are fading and bears have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at this week’s high of 1.0002. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at .9800. First resistance is
seen at .9900 and then at today’s high of .9938. First
support is seen at today’s low of .9864 and then at .9850.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The June British pound closed down 86 points at 1.5914
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
four-week low today. Bulls have faded and are on a level
near-term technical playing field with the bears. A four-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of 1.6121. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
the April low of 1.5797. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.5997 and then at 1.6047. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.5884 and then at 1.5800. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 14 points at 81.52
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh four-month high. More safe-haven buying of the
greenback was seen today. Bulls have gained solid upside
near-term technical momentum and have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the January high of 82.28. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 80.00. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 81.74 and then at 82.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 81.34 and then at
81.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 18/32 at 146 31/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit another
fresh contract high on more safe-haven investment demand.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. There are no early technical clues to suggest a
market top is close at hand. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 143
18/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 148
even. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of
147 2/32 and then at 147 16/32. First support is seen at
146 16/32 and then at 146 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 2.5 (32nds) at 133.14.5 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 134.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 132.17.5. First resistance is seen at the
contract high of 133.19.5 and then at 134.00.0. First
support is seen at 133.06.5 and then at 133.00.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker again today. The European Union debt crisis has
intensified. The EU debt crisis has created keen
trader/investor uncertainty in the market place, which is
bearish for the U.S. stock indexes. Trading action Thursday
and Friday will be extra important for the stock indexes.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 17.25 at
2,561.00. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit
another fresh three-month low today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 2,700.00. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at 2,500.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 2,596.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 2,616.24.
First support is seen at today’s low of 2,556.250 and then
at 2,550.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 5.00 at 1,323.40.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh 3.5-month low. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
March high of 1,419.60. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at 1,300.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1,339.50 and then at this week’s high of 1,350.80.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1,321.00 and then
at 1,300.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 30 points at 12,575 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit another
fresh 3.5-month low. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 13,000. The next downside price objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at 12,500. First resistance in the Dow lies at 12,650 and
then at 12,700. First support is seen at 12,550 and then at
12,500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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