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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--May 17

May 18, 2012

Thursday Evening, May 17-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed up $1.05 at $117.92
today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh
seven-week high today and saw more short covering and some
fresh bargain hunting. A three-week-old uptrend from the
April low is in place. Cattle bulls and bears are now back
on a level near-term technical playing field. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $120.00. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$114.85. First resistance is seen at $118.00 and then at
$118.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $117.45
and then at $117.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

August feeder cattle closed up $1.60 at $159.92 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
two-month high. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage and gained more upside momentum today. The next
upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$161.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at this week’s low of $156.20. First resistance is
seen at $160.00 and then at $160.50. First support is seen
at today’s low of $159.40 and then at $159.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

June lean hogs closed up $0.92 at $87.42 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today, hit a fresh three-week high
and saw more short covering in a bear market. My bias is
that a market low is in place for hogs. However, hog bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage at
present. The next upside price breakout objective for the
hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $88.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $85.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $87.80 and then at $88.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of $86.85 and then at $86.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed up 4 cents at $6.24
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today on
more short covering and bargain hunting. The bulls have
gained fresh upside technical momentum just recently to
suggest a market bottom is now in place. However, my bias
is that it’s still going to take a serious weather market
scare this summer to jump-start any serious price uptrend
in the corn market. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $6.34 3/4. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance for July
corn is seen at today’s high of $6.26 1/2 and then at
$6.30. First support is seen at $6.20 and then at today’s
low of $6.16 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

July soybeans closed up 15 cents at $14.37 a bushel today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more short
covering and bargain hunting. More strong demand for U.S.
soybeans on the world market surfaced today, which also
supported beans. Bean bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $14.80 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $14.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $14.49 3/4 and then at $14.61 3/4. First support is seen
at $14.25 and then at today’s low of $14.20 1/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

July soybean meal closed up $4.30 at $429.30 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Meal bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and have regained
upside momentum. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the May high of $437.60. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $410.00.
First resistance comes in at today’s high of $434.60 and
then at $437.60. First support is seen at $425.00 and then
at today’s low of $423.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

July bean oil closed up 22 points at 50.65 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. Bean oil bears still have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Bean oil prices have
been trending lower for six weeks. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of 52.43 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 51.00 cents and then at 51.52 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 50.41 cents and
then at this week’s low of 50.05 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 18 1/2 cents at $6.57 1/4
today. Prices closed near the session high again today, hit
a fresh six-week high, and saw more short covering and
bargain hunting. Solid weekly USDA export sales today and
some dry and hot weather in the U.S. plains were bullish
for wheat. Wheat bulls and bears are now back on a level
near-term technical playing field as the bulls have quickly
gained upside technical momentum. Bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at $6.80 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $6.15. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $6.58 1/2 and then at $6.70. First support
lies at $6.50 and then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 16 cents at $6.72 today.
Prices closed near the session high again today and saw
more short covering and bargain hunting. Wheat bulls and
bears are now back on a level near-term technical playing
field as the bulls have quickly gained upside technical
momentum. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $6.90. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$6.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.73
and then at $6.80. First support is seen at today’s low of
$6.58 and then at $6.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

July oats closed up 1 cent at $3.38 1/2 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw short covering. Bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the April low of
$3.22. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the May high of $3.50. First support lies at $3.35 and
then at $3.32. First resistance is seen at $3.40 and then
at today’s high of $3.44. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed up 11 points at 20.84 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a
12-month low. A bullish weekly high close on Friday would
begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. Sugar bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at the May high of 21.17 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 20.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 20.93 cents and then at 21.00 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 20.61 cents and
then at 20.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

July coffee closed up 90 points at 178.90 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. Coffee
prices are in an 8.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the May high of 185.40 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 170.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 180.80
cents and then at this week’s high of 182.15 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 176.40 cents and then at
175.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

July cocoa closed down $62 at $2,230 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. Cocoa bears have the near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the May high of $2,363.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,146. First resistance is seen at $2,250 and then at
$2,275. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,220 and
then at $2,200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July cotton closed up 17 points at 77.14 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
1.5-year low. Tepid short covering in a bear market was
seen today. The cotton bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. There are no early clues of a market
low being close at hand. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 82.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 75.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 78.23
cents and then at 79.34 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 76.26 cents and then at 75.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July orange juice closed down 830 points at $1.0450 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit another
fresh contract low. FCOJ bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. There are still no early clues of
a market low being close at hand. Prices are in a 3.5-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.2500. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.0000. First resistance is seen at $1.0750 and then at
$1.1000. First support is seen at today’s contract low of
$1.0390 and then at $1.0250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July lumber futures closed up $0.60 at $283.10 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $275.00. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $288.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $284.80 and then at
this week’s high of $287.00. First support is seen at
$281.00 and then at today’s low of $279.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: June gold futures closed up $37.60 an ounce at
$1,574.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and saw short covering, bargain hunting and fresh
safe-haven buying interest. While serious near-term chart
damage has been inflicted recently decent follow-through
buying and a bullish weekly high close on Friday would
begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place.
Gold bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. A 2.5-month-old downtrend is still in place on
the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,585.80.
Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$1,526.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1,579.80 and then at this week’s high of $1,585.80. First
support is seen at $1,564.40 and then at $1,550.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

July silver futures closed up $0.794 an ounce at $27.99
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering and bargain hunting after prices Wednesday
hit a 4.5-month low. Silver prices are still in a 2.5-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The silver
bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $29.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the December low of $26.50. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $28.295 and then at
$28.50. Next support is seen $27.50 and then at today’s low
of $27.175. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July N.Y. copper closed down 40 points 347.40 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Copper
bears have the near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of 367.45 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the January low of 340.60 cents. First
resistance is seen at 350.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 352.15 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low
of 344.90 cents and then at 342.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: June crude oil closed down $0.35 a barrel at
$92.47 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and closed at a fresh 6.5-month low close. The bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $98.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $90.00. First
resistance is seen at $93.00 and then at today’s high of
$93.88. First support is seen at today’s low of $92.09 and
then at this week’s low of $91.81. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

June heating oil closed down 521 points at $2.8455 today.
Prices closed near the session low and hit another fresh
4.5-month low today. Bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage as prices are in a 2.5-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.8000. First resistance lies at
$2.8750 and then at $2.9000. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.8455 and then at $2.8250. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5.

June (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 436 points at
$2.8773 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit another fresh four-month low. Bears have the near-
term technical advantage. A seven-week-old downtrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.0250. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at $2.8000. First resistance is seen at $2.9000 and
then at today’s high of $2.9300. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.8668 and then at $2.8500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

June natural gas closed up 0.5 cent at $2.623 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high again today and hit another
fresh 10-week high. The bulls still have some upside near-
term technical momentum. The bears do still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage, however. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.75. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$2.387. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.676
and then at $2.70. First support is seen at $2.531 and then
at $2.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 16 points at 1.2710 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today and hit another fresh four-month low. Bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3000.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at the January low
of 1.2645. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2761 and
then at 1.2800. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.2668 and then at 1.2645. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 156 points at 1.2615 today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh three-
month high today. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today.
Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.2700. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.2400. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.2641 and then at 1.2700. First support
is seen at 1.2550 and then at 1.2500. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

The June Swiss franc closed down 12 points at 1.0584 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
four-month low. The bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage in the Swissy. Prices are in a 2.5-
month-old downtrend. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.0800. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of 1.0489. First
resistance is seen at 1.0626 and then at 1.0700. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0550 and then at
1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The June Australian dollar closed up 8 points at .9895
today. Prices closed near mid-range low today and saw tepid
short covering in a bar market. Prices Wednesday hit a 4.5-
month low. Bears have the near-term technical advantage and
have gained more downside momentum this week. Prices are in
a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at 1.0200. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at .9800. First resistance is
seen at .9935 and then at this week’s high of 1.0001 and
then at 1.0046. Next support is seen at this week’s low of
.9838 and then at .9800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 62 points at .9819
today. Prices closed near the session low again today and
hit another fresh four-month low. Bulls are fading fast and
bears have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at .9950. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at .9750. First resistance is seen at
.9850 and then at today’s high of .9890. First support is
seen at today’s low of .9812 and then at .9800. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

The June British pound closed down 104 points at 1.5807
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
two-month low today. Bulls have faded badly recently and
bears have gained the near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6000.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the March low of
1.5591. First resistance is seen at 1.5850 and then at
1.5900. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5752 and
then at 1.5700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 7 points at 81.59
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh four-month high. More safe-haven buying of the
greenback was seen today. Bulls have gained solid upside
near-term technical momentum and have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the January high of 82.28. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 80.00. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 81.83 and then at 82.00.
First support is seen at 81.34 and then at 81.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 20/32 at 148 14/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and soared to yet
another fresh contract high on more safe-haven investment
demand. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. There are no early technical clues to
suggest a market top is close at hand. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 145 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at 150 even. First
resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 148 18/32
and then at 149 even. First support is seen at 148 even and
then at 147 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 10.5 (32nds) at 133.24.0 today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh
contract high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 134.00.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 132.17.5. First
resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 133.25.5 and
then at 134.00.0. First support is seen at 133.16.0 and
then at today’s low of 133.05.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
9.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
solidly lower today as they also hit multi-month lows. The
European Union debt crisis has intensified and the JP
Morgan trading loss debacle has the market spooked. Weak
U.S. economic data today also aided the stock market bears.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 52.00 at
2,505.50. Prices closed near the session low and hit a
fresh 3.5-month low today. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,650.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 2,400.00. First resistance is seen at 2,525.00 and then
at 2,550.00. First support is seen at 2,500.00 and then at
2,475.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 21.40 at 1,301.00.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit another
fresh 3.5-month low. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1,380.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at
1,250.00. First resistance is seen at 1,315.00 and then at
today’s high of 1,330.30. First support is seen at 1,300.00
and then at 1,285.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The Dow futures closed down 161 points at 12,413 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
four-month low. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
13,000. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 12,000.
First resistance in the Dow lies at 12,450 and then at
12,500. First support is seen at 12,400 and then at 12,350.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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