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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--May 7

May 08, 2012

Monday Evening, May 7-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed up $0.92 at $116.30
today. Prices hit a fresh three-week high today and saw
short covering. Prices were able to score decent gains
today despite bearish outside markets and a “risk off”
trading day today. That’s a bullish clue for cattle. Cattle
bears presently still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $117.70. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $112.80. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $116.45 and then at $117.00. First
support is seen at $116.00 and then at $115.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

August feeder cattle closed up $1.35 at $159.45 today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh seven-
week high today. The bulls have gained good upside momentum
recently, including producing a bullish weekly high close
last Friday. The next upside price objective for the feeder
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $161.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at $157.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $159.70 and then at $160.00. First
support is seen at $159.00 and then at $158.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

June lean hogs closed up $0.67 at $84.40 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering
in a bear market after hitting a fresh contract low early
on today. Hog bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep nine-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $87.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $82.50. First
resistance is seen at $85.00 and then at $85.50. First
support is seen at $84.00 and then at $83.50 and then at
today’s contract low of $82.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.5

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed down 1/4 cent at $6.20
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
buying interest limited by another “risk off” trading day
today as the key “outside markets” were also in a bearish
posture for corn as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and
crude oil prices were lower. Beneficial rains in the U.S.
Corn Belt were also a bit bearish for corn today. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $6.34 3/4. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance for July
corn is seen at today’s high of $6.21 1/4 and then at
$6.25. First support is seen at $6.15 and then at today’s
low of $6.12 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

July soybeans closed down 12 1/2 cents at $14.65 3/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw more profit taking after scoring a contract high
and four-year high last week. It was also a “risk off”
trading day today and the key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for beans as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were lower. Bulls have faded a
bit but do still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bean prices are still in a four-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the contract high of $15.12 1/2 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $14.40.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.78 3/4 and
then at $14.88 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s
low of $14.58 and then at $14.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

July soybean meal closed down $6.10 at $426.50 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Meal bulls do
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but
have faded just a bit. Prices are still in a four-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at last week’s contract
high of $437.60. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $415.00. First resistance comes in at
$430.00 and then at today’s high of $433.50. First support
is seen at last week’s low of $424.20 and then at $420.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

July bean oil closed down 7 points at 53.58 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 11-week
low. It was another “risk off” trading day today and the
key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for bean
oil as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were lower. Bean oil bears have gained the slight
near-term technical advantage. Bean oil prices have been
trending lower for four weeks. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 55.00
cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at 52.50 cents. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 53.77 cents and then at 54.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 53.26 cents
and then at 53.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 2 1/2 cents at $6.12
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market after hitting a fresh
contract low on Friday. It was another “risk off” trading
day today and the key “outside markets” were in a bearish
posture for wheat as the U.S. dollar index was higher and
crude oil prices were lower. Wheat bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at $6.40 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $6.14 and then at $6.20. First support lies
at the contract low of $5.99 1/2 and then at $5.90.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 4 1/4 cents at $6.31 1/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices hit a fresh
nearly two-year low on Friday. The bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $6.65 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.35 and then at
$6.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.20
and then at $6.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July oats closed down 2 1/2 cents at $3.37 1/2 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw some profit
taking after prices Friday scored a fresh six-month high.
Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the April low of
$3.22. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at last Friday’s high of $3.50. First support lies at
today’s low of of $3.35 1/2 and then at $3.30. First
resistance is seen at $3.40 and then at $3.45. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed up 30 points at 21.11 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering in a bear market. Prices last week hit
a 12-month low. Sugar bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. There are no early technical
clues to suggest a market low is in place. Prices are in a
six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
21.45 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 20.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
21.17 cents and then at 21.45 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 20.70 cents and then at last week’s low
of 20.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

July coffee closed up 20 points at 174.80 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today and poked to a fresh 1.5-year
low. It was another “risk off” trading day today and the
key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for coffee
as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices
were lower. Coffee prices are still in an eight-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls'
next upside breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 185.70
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
170.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 177.50
cents and then at 180.00 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 173.60 cents and then at 172.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July cocoa closed up $51 at $2,340 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today, hit a fresh six-week high
and also scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart. It was another “risk off” trading day today and the
key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for cocoa
as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices
were lower. Yet, cocoa posted solid gains today, which is a
bullish clue for the cocoa market. Trading has been very
choppy and cocoa bulls have gained the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the March high of
$2,443. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $2,146. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $2,363 and then at $2,400. First
support is seen at $2,300 and then at $2,272. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

July cotton closed down 174 points at 86.25 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh 4.5-
month low. It was another “risk off” trading day today and
the key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for
cotton as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were lower. The recent “collapse in volatility” in
the cotton market made me suspect a bigger price move was
on the horizon, and we got it Friday and today. Cotton
bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 90.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 85.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at 87.00 cents and then at 88.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 86.10 cents and then at 85.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July orange juice closed down 550 points at $1.1855 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit another
fresh contract low. It was another “risk off” trading day
today and the key “outside markets” were in a bearish
posture for FCOJ as the U.S. dollar index was higher and
crude oil prices were lower. FCOJ bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. There are still no
early clues of a market low being close at hand. Prices are
in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.3500. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.1000. First resistance is seen at $1.2000 and
then at $1.2250. First support is seen at today’s contract
low of $1.1650 and then at $1.1500. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.

July lumber futures closed down $5.50 at $281.20 today.
Prices closed near the session low on profit taking after
hitting a fresh seven-week high on Friday. Bulls still have
the slight near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$275.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $294.00. First
resistance is seen at $284.00 and then at today’s high of
$286.80. First support is seen at $280.00 and then at
$278.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $6.00 an ounce at
$1,639.20 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. It was
another “risk off” trading day today and the key “outside
markets” were in a bearish posture for gold as the U.S.
dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower.
Gold bears have the slight near-term technical advantage.
The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $1,672.30. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below technical support
at the April low of $1,613.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1,644.00 and then at $1,650.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1,632.20 and then at
last week’s low of $1,626.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

July silver futures closed down $0.357 an ounce at $30.075
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
four-month low. It was another “risk off” trading day today
and the key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for
silver as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil
prices were lower. Silver prices are in a nine-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The silver bears have the
near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $31.445 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $29.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $30.39 and then
at $30.675. Next support is seen at today’s low of $29.675
and then at $29.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

July N.Y. copper closed up 455 points 376.65 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. It was a
“risk off” trading day today and the key “outside markets”
were in a bearish posture for copper as the U.S. dollar
index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower. Yet,
copper posted solid gains which does show there is some
strength in the copper market. Copper bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 386.15 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at today’s low of 366.65 cents. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 377.85 cents and then at 380.00
cents. First support is seen at 375.00 cents and then at
372.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: June crude oil closed down $0.43 a barrel at
$98.06 today. Prices closed near the session high today
after hitting a fresh 4.5-month low of $95.34 early on
today. While the bears have gained the overall near-term
technical advantage with the recent price downdraft,
today’s high-range close does hint the bears may now be
exhausted at these lower price levels. It was another “risk
off” trading day today and as the U.S. dollar index was
higher—both bearish for crude. The next near-term upside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above major psychological resistance at
$100.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at today’s low of
$95.34. First resistance is seen at $99.00 and then at
$100.00. First support is seen at $97.50 and then at
$97.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

June heating oil closed down 250 points at $2.9838 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 3.5-
month low. Bears have gained the near-term technical
advantage as prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.1000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $2.9000. First resistance lies at $3.0000 and
then at $3.0250. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2.9540 and then at $2.9400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

June (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 55 points at
$2.9811 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit
a fresh 3.5-month low early on today. Bears have gained the
near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old downtrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.1000. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at $2.8500. First resistance is seen at $3.0000 and
then at $3.0250. First support is seen at $2.9500 and then
at today’s low of $2.9102. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

June natural gas closed up 5.2 cents at $2.331 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today in quieter
trading. The bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the bulls have some momentum
to still suggest a market low is close at hand or in place.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.50.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of $1.982. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of $2.385 and then at $2.45. First support is
seen at $2.236 and then at $2.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 32 points at 1.3057 today. Prices gapped lower
on the daily bar chart and closed nearer the session high
today, and did hit a fresh 3.5-month low early on. Bears
have gained the near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of
1.3287. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
today’s low of 1.2957. First resistance for the Euro lies
at 1.3100 and then at 1.3150. Next support is seen at
1.3000 and then at 1.2957. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

The June Japanese yen closed down 7 points at 1.2518 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today but did hit a
fresh 2.5-month high early on. Bulls have the slight near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1.2700. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.2233.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2564 and then
at 1.2600. First support is seen at 1.2450 and then at
1.2400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The June Swiss franc closed down 31 points at 1.0870 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and did hit a
fresh seven-week low early on. The bears have regained the
near-term technical advantage in the Swissy. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at the May high of 1.1065.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at today’s low
of 1.0778. First resistance is seen at 1.0900 and then at
1.0950. First support is seen at 1.0817 and then at today’s
low of 1.0778. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The June Australian dollar closed up 15 points at 1.0155
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after
hitting a fresh four-month low early on. Bears have gained
the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at the April high of 1.0422. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at today’s low of 1.0065.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0177 and then
at 1.0225. Next support is seen at 1.0125 and then at
1.0100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

The June Canadian dollar closed up 21 points at 1.0059
today. Prices closed near the session high today after
hitting a fresh three-week low early on. Bulls are fading.
The bulls do still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at the April high
of 1.0192. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at the April low of .9933. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0065 and then at 1.0100. First support is
seen at last week’s low of 1.0027 and then at 1.0000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The June British pound closed up 44 points at 1.6185 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6400. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at 1.6000. First resistance is
seen at 1.6212 and then at 1.6244. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.6110 and then at 1.6056. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 11 points at 79.70
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week high early on. Bulls have gained some
fresh upside near-term technical momentum recently and are
now on a level near-term technical playing field with the
bears. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at the April
high of 80.38. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the February low of 78.42. Next resistance lies
at 80.00 and then at today’s high of 80.13. First support
is seen at 79.50 and then at 79.14. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1/32 at 143 23/32 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and did hit a fresh
4.5-month high early on, and saw safe-haven demand amid a
“risk off” trading day today. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 141 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the December high of
144 23/32. First resistance is seen at 144 even and then at
today’s high of 144 19/32. First support is seen at today’s
low of 143 19/32 and then at 143 even. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed steady at 132.20.5 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low and did set another fresh
contract high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 134.00.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 131.06.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s contract high of 133.02.0 and then at 133.16.0.
First support is seen at 132.17.0 and then at 132.00.0.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mostly firmer today and shrugged off what could have been a
big “risk off” trading day following some fresh turmoil in
the European Union. While the stock index bulls maintain
the slight overall near-term technical advantage, have
faded and need to show more power soon. The “sell in May
and go away” trading adage has come back into vogue.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 11.00 at 2,636.50.
Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a
fresh two-month low early on. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,800.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the March low of 2,575.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 2,648.25 and then at 2,675.00. First
support is seen at 2,600.00 and then at today’s low of
2,586.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 3.30 at 1,365.80.
Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a
fresh two-month low early on. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the March high of 1,419.60. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the March low of 1,338.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,370.00 and then at
1,388.90. First support is seen at 1,350.00 and then at
today’s low of 1,342.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed up 2 points at 12,959 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the May high of 13,280. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the April low of 12,650.
First resistance in the Dow lies at 13,000 and then at
13,090. First support is seen at today’s low of 12,910 and
then at 12,850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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