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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--November 17

Nov 18, 2011

Thursday Evening, November 17-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed down $0.70 at
$123.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar
chart. The key “outside markets” were fully bearish for
cattle today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower.
There is still the specter of a bearish double-top reversal
pattern forming on the daily chart for February live
cattle. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at $125.00. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $122.15. First
resistance is seen at $124.00 and then at $124.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $123.10 and then at
$122.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March feeder cattle closed up $0.55 at $150.50 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price objective for
the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
technical resistance at $152.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at $147.50. First
resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $150.87 and
then at $151.50. First support is seen at $150.00 and then
at $149.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

February lean hogs closed up $1.50 at $90.42 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today on short covering and
fresh bargain-hunting buying. Bulls today gained fresh
upside technical momentum to suggest a near-term market low
is in place. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $91.70. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $87.85. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $90.70 and then at
$91.00. First support is seen at $90.00 and then at $89.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed down 28 3/4 cents at
$6.23 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh five-week low. The key “outside markets”
were fully bearish for corn today, as the U.S. dollar index
was higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were
sharply lower. Near-term chart damage was inflicted today
as prices saw a bearish downside “breakout” from the
sideways and choppy trading range that had been in place
for several weeks. Corn market bears have the near-term
technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $6.57. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below psychological support at $6.00. First
resistance for March corn is seen at $6.30 and then at
$6.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.19 and
then at $6.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

January soybeans closed down 19 1/2 cents at $11.68 1/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh 12-month low. The key “outside markets”
were fully bearish for soybeans today, as the U.S. dollar
index was higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes were sharply lower. Soybean bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $12.06 1/4 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$11.50. First resistance is seen at $11.80 and then at
today’s high of $11.92. First support is seen at today’s
low of $11.62 and then at $11.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5.

March soybean meal closed down $1.40 at $300.10 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
23-month low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above
technical resistance at $315.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First
resistance comes in at today’s high of $302.80 and then at
$305.00. First support is seen at $297.50 and then at
today’s low of $295.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March bean oil closed down 108 points at 52.05 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were fully bearish for bean oil today, as
the U.S. dollar index was higher, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of 53.25 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
51.51 cents. First resistance is seen at 52.50 cents and
then at 53.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 51.78 cents and then at 51.51 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 25 3/4 cents at $6.12
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
careened to a fresh 16-month low. The key “outside markets”
were fully bearish for the wheat market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher while crude oil and U.S. stock
index prices were sharply lower. Wheat bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
downside momentum today. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $6.52 3/4
a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for
the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at
$6.25 and then at $6.34 1/4. First support lies at today’s
low of $6.09 and then at $6.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed down 22 1/2 cents at $6.77 1/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
16-month low today. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more power today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $7.17 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $6.50. First resistance is seen at $6.85 and then at
$6.95. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.75 and
then at $6.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

March oats closed down 18 1/2 cents at $3.05 today. Prices
closed near the session low and careened to a fresh
contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below major
psychological support at $3.00. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $3.28.
First support lies at today’s contract low of $3.03 1/2 and
then at $3.00. First resistance is seen at $3.10 and then
at $3.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 44 points at 24.08 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low again today and
hit a fresh five-month low today. The key “outside markets”
were fully bearish for sugar today, as the U.S. dollar
index was higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes were sharply lower. Sugar bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage as a five-week-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Sugar bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of 25.45 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at 23.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 24.51 cents and then at 24.81 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 24.00 cents and then at 23.75
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March coffee closed down 370 points at 235.35 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were fully bearish for coffee today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes were sharply lower. Coffee bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 250.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 230.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at 240.00 cents and then at 241.95
cents and then at this week’s high of 243.30 cents. First
support is seen at 235.00 cents and then at this week’s low
of 231.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March cocoa closed down $38 at $2,498 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today and hit another fresh contract
low early on. The key “outside markets” were fully bearish
for cocoa today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower.
The cocoa bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$2,585. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,400. First resistance is seen at $2,525 and
then at today’s high of $2,540. First support is seen at
today’s contract low of $2,490 and then at $2,475.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March cotton closed down the 400-point limit at 96.48 cents
today. The key “outside markets” were fully bearish for
cotton today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower.
The cotton bulls quickly faded and are back on a level
near-term technical playing field with the bears. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
100.88 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at this week’s low of 96.10 cents.
First support is seen at 96.10 cents and then at the
October low of 95.00 cents. First resistance is seen at
98.00 cents and then at 99.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

January orange juice closed up 390 points at $1.7275 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering and bargain hunting. FCOJ bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage and gained some fresh upside
momentum today. The next upside price breakout objective
for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $1.7515.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.6625. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1.7400 and then at last week’s high of $1.7515. First
support is seen at $1.7100 and then at 1.7000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

January lumber futures closed up the $10.00 limit at
$241.70 today. More short covering was featured today.
While the bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage, the bulls did gain fresh upside momentum today
to suggest that a market low is in place. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$225.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $250.00. First resistance is seen at the
October high of $246.00 and then at $250.00. First support
is seen at $240.00 and then at $237.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $56.50 an
ounce at $1,717.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today as the market was hammered to a fresh two-week
low. The key “outside markets” were fully bearish for gold
today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were sharply lower. Some near-term technical damage
was inflicted today, as a seven-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart was at least temporarily negated as prices
dropped below what was solid technical support at the last
“reaction low” on the daily chart, which is last week’s low
of $1,736.60, to negate the near-term price uptrend. Bulls
still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage
but are fading fast and need to show fresh power soon.
Bulls' next upside technical objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the October high
of $1,754.00. Bears' next near-term downside price
objective is closing prices below psychological support at
$1,700.00. First resistance is seen at $1,736.60 and then
at 1,754.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,711.00 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

December silver futures closed down $2.362 an ounce at
$31.46 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh three-week low. The key “outside markets”
were fully bearish for silver today, as the U.S. dollar
index was higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower.
Some near-term technical damage was inflicted in silver
today, as a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart
was negated. Bulls have faded badly and are now on a level
near-term technical playing field with the bears. Silver
bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$34.92 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below major psychological
support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at $32.00 and
then at $32.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$31.04 and then at $30.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 1,145 points 337.00 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were fully bearish for copper today, as
the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil and stock
index prices were sharply lower. Copper bears have regained
the near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
358.55 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 331.80 cents. First
resistance is seen at 340.00 cents and then at 345.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 336.20 cents
and then at 331.80 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed down $3.57 a barrel
at $99.02 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh 5.5-month high of $103.37 early on. Then
prices reversed course to score a big and bearish “outside
day” down on the daily bar chart. A stronger U.S. dollar
index and a big sell off in the U.S. stock market pressured
energies today. Today’s price action in crude does hint
that a near-term market top is in place. Crude bulls do
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid
technical resistance at today’s high of $103.37 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $97.00. First resistance is seen at
$100.00 and then at $101.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $98.28 and then at $97.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

December heating oil closed down 463 points at $3.0883
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
more profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but have faded. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $3.2004. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below major psychological support at $3.0000. First
resistance lies at $3.1000 and then at $3.1250. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.0621 and then at
$3.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 1,109 points
at $2.5150 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and
closed at a fresh five-week low close today. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage as this particular market has
been straying from heating oil and crude. This does not
bode well for crude oil. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $2.6950. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at the August low of $2.4110. First
resistance is seen at $2.5500 and then at $2.5750. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $2.4940 and then at
$2.4750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

December natural gas closed up 10.3 cents at $3.447 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting
another fresh contract low early on. Today’s price action
scored a bullish “outside day”  up on the daily bar chart
and if there is good follow-through buying on Friday and a
bullish weekly high close, then that would confirm a
bullish “key reversal” up on the daily bar chart, which
could be one early technical clue that a market low is
finally in place. But right now the bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.25. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.479 and then at
this week’s high of $3.553. First support is seen at $3.40
and then at today’s contract low of $3.325 and then at
$3.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 48 points at 1.3463 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh
six-week low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
1.3794. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the
October low of 1.3142. First resistance for the Euro lies
at 1.3500 and then at today’s high of 1.3570. Next support
is seen at today’s low of 1.3420 and then at 1.3400.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The December Japanese yen closed down 7 points at 1.2998
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today in
quieter trading. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1.3100. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.2850. First
resistance is seen at this week’ high of 1.3027 and then at
1.3100. First support is seen at 1.2950 and then at 1.2900.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The December Swiss franc closed down 57 points at 1.0854
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh six-week low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.1300. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the October low of 1.0749. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0931 and then at
1.1000. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0830 and
then at 1.0800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The December Australian dollar closed down 151 points at
.9959 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
hit a fresh five-week low. Bulls have faded. Prices are in
a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid chart resistance at 1.0400. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at .9800. First resistance is
seen at 1.0000 and then at 1.0100. Next support is seen at
today’s low of .9937 and then at .9900. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

The December Canadian dollar closed down 84 points at .9716
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh six-week low. Bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
.9935. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
.9600. First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9789
and then at .9850. First support is seen at today’s low of
.9706 and then at .9650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The December British pound closed down 18 points at 1.5751
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh four-week low. Bulls have faded. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.6000. Bears' next
downside technical breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at 1.5500. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.5810 and then at 1.5900. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.5686 and then at 1.5621. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 28 points at 78.49
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh six-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 79.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 76.67. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 78.69 and then at 79.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 78.13 and then at
77.62. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 2/32 at 143 6/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
six-week high. Bond market bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and gained some more upside
momentum today. The next downside price breakout objective
for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 140 even. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the September contract high of 147
even. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 143 21/32
and then at 144 even. First support is seen at 143 even and
then at 142 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 9.0 (32nds) at 130.25.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s high
of 131.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at 129.19.5. First resistance is seen at 131.00.0
and then at the October high of 131.12.5. First support is
seen at today’s low of 130.08.5 and then at 130.00.0.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
sharply lower today. The EU debt crisis once again
pressured stock indexes today. The EU crisis is far from
resolved and it could continue to negatively impact the
U.S. stock indexes in the near term. The stock index bulls
have faded this week.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 43.00 at
2,270.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh five-week low. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the October high of 2,408.75. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 2,200.00. First resistance is seen at
2,300.00 and then at today’s high of 2,332.75. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,256.00 and then at
2,225.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 16.50 at 1,214.50.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and closed at a
fresh five-week low close. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the October high of 1,288.70. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,150.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1,241.60 and then at 1,258.60. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1,206.50 and then at
1,200.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 106 points at 11,739 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
two-week low. The next upside price objective for the bulls
is closing prices above technical resistance at the October
high of 12,230. The next downside price objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
11,500. First resistance in the Dow lies at 11,800 and then
at today’s high of 11,890. First support is seen at today’s
low of 11,652 and then at 11,600. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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