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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Oct. 17

Oct 18, 2012

Wednesday Evening, Oct. 17-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.92 at
$127.60 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and hit a fresh three-week high. More short covering and
bargain hunting were featured today. A weaker U.S. dollar
index supported cattle again today. Cash cattle market
fundamentals are also on the upswing. Cattle bulls and
bears are now on a level near-term technical playing field.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$129.50. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $125.45. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $127.65 and then at
$128.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $127.00
and then at $126.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

November feeder cattle closed up $1.55 at $149.27 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh four-
week high today. The market saw more heavy short covering
and bargain hunting today. Recent lower grain prices are
also supportive for feeders. Bulls have gained good upside
technical momentum this week and now have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $152.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $146.00.
First resistance is seen at the September high of $149.52
and then at $150.00. First support is seen at today’s low
of $148.57 and then at $148.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

December lean hogs closed up $0.57 at $79.17 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high again today and hit a fresh
2.5-month high. Hog market bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend is in place on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at $80.75. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices
below solid technical support at $76.55. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $79.25 and then at $80.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $78.60 and then at this
week’s low of $78.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were up 7 1/4 cents at
7.45 1/2 in late trading today. Prices were near the
session high. A weaker U.S. dollar index supported the corn
market today, as did some bargain hunting. Corn prices are
holding just above key chart support at last week’s low of
$7.32 1/4. A close below that level would open up downside
potential to the $7.00 area. If corn prices can hold above
that key level of $7.32 1/4 then the bulls would begin to
regain upside momentum to still suggest that a harvest low
is in place. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of $7.76. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $7.32 1/4.
First resistance for December corn is seen at $7.50 and
then at $7.55. First support is seen at $7.40 and then at
today’s low of $7.36 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November soybeans were up 15 1/2 cents at $15.09 1/4 a
bushel in late trading today. Prices were near the session
high and saw some short covering and bargain hunting. A
weaker U.S. dollar index was also supportive for beans
today. Bulls are still in some technical trouble. Soybean
bears have the slight near-term technical advantage as a
six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart is in place.
The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for
the soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$15.74 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $14.50. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $15.20 and then at $15.30. First
support is seen at $15.00 and then at this week’s low of
$14.85 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

December soybean meal was up $1.90 at $454.70 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and did
hit another fresh three-month low early on today. Meal
bears have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $479.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $450.00. First resistance comes
in at today’s high of $455.90 and then at $460.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $450.20 and then at
$448.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

December bean oil was up 56 points at 51.03 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on short
covering. A weaker U.S. dollar index was also supportive to
bean oil today. Bean oil bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. A six-week-old downtrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 52.29 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
49.41 cents. First resistance is seen at 51.50 cents and
then at 51.64 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 50.29 cents and then at 50.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 8 1/2 cents at $8.56 1/4
in late trading today. Prices were near the session high on
short covering and some perceived bargain hunting. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at $9.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $8.15.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $8.60 1/4
and then at $8.70. First support lies at this week’s low of
$8.40 1/4 and then at $8.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 11 1/4 cents at $8.94 in
late trading today. Prices were near the session high on
short covering and bargain hunting. Trading remains in a
choppy and sideways trading range at higher price levels.
However, prices are near the bottom of the aforementioned
trading range. The HRW bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $9.25 1/2. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of $8.72 1/2. First resistance is seen at
$9.00 and then at $9.10. First support is seen at today’s
low of $8.81 1/2 and then at $8.72 1/2. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

December oats were up 3 1/4 cents at $3.95 3/4 today in
late trading. Prices were nearer the session low after
hitting a fresh five-week high early on today. Oats bulls
have the near-term technical advantage and are gaining
upside momentum. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.75. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of $4.14.
First support lies at today’s low of $3.92 and then at
$3.90. First resistance is seen at $4.00 and then at
today’s high of $4.04. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 11 points at 20.06 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
weaker U.S. dollar today was not supportive for sugar,
which is another bearish clue for sugar. A bearish pennant
or bear flag pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart.
Sugar bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of 21.77 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 19.48 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 20.29 cents and
then at 20.59 cents. First support is seen at 20.00 cents
and then at this week’s low of 19.81 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5.

December coffee closed down 160 points at 161.20 cents.
Prices closed near mid-range today. A weaker U.S. dollar
index today could not support coffee, which is a near-term
bearish clue. Coffee bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. However, it’s around present price
levels that recent downtrends have been halted. The next
upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 172.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of 156.55 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 163.45 cents and then at 165.00 cents. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 159.50 cents and then
at 156.55 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

December cocoa closed down $33 at $2,385 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The weaker U.S. dollar
index today could not support cocoa, which is a bearish
clue for cocoa. Cocoa prices are in a five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $2,453. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $2,300. First resistance is seen at
$2,400 and then at this week’s high of $2,434. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2,374 and then at
$2,350. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December cotton closed up the 300-point limit at 77.86
cents today. Prices hit a fresh five-month high today and
were boosted by a possible “short squeeze” in the market
following news of very tight U.S. certificated stocks of
cotton. A weaker U.S. dollar index helped to boost cotton
today. This week’s price action in cotton has produced a
big and bullish upside “breakout” from the recent sideways
trading range at lower price levels. Bulls have quickly
gained solid upside technical momentum and have the near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 72.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 79.00 cents and then at
80.00 cents. First support is seen at 77.00 cents and then
at 76.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

November orange juice closed up 395 points at $1.1700
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at
a fresh three-week high close today. Short covering and
bargain hunting were seen today. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at the October
high of $1.1995. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at the October low of $1.0870.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.1785 and
then at $1.1900. First support is seen at $1.1600 and then
at $1.1500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

November lumber futures closed up $7.20 at $303.80 today.
The market was boosted on more heavy short covering and
fresh spec buying following a surprisingly strong U.S.
housing report today. Prices today hit another fresh two-
month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage and gained more power today. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$288.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the August high of $308.00. First resistance
is seen at $305.00 and then at $308.00. First support is
seen at $300.00 and then at $297.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $5.40 an ounce
at $1,751.70 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
saw more short covering and bargain hunting following
recent selling pressure. A weaker U.S. dollar index
supported gold again today. The gold bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage but need to show more power
soon to gain fresh upside momentum. The gold bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at $1,775.00. Bears' next near-
term downside price objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at $1,720.00. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $1,755.50 and then at $1,765.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1,744.00 and then at
Tuesday’s low of $1,736.10. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5

December silver futures closed up $0.271 an ounce at $33.23
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering and bargain hunting following recent
selling pressure. The weaker U.S. dollar index today again
supported silver. Bulls still need to show more power to
see fresh upside momentum. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $34.38 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $32.00. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of $33.47 and then at $33.75. Next
support is seen at today’s low of $32.88 and then at this
week’s low of $32.57. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 455 points at 374.55 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today. More
short covering and bargain hunting were seen today. The
weaker U.S. dollar index also boosted copper today. Copper
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of 383.95 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 360.00 cents. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 375.50 cents and then at last
week’s high of 377.85 cents. First support is seen at
372.50 cents and then at 370.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed down $0.10 a barrel
at $91.99 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Gains
were limited by a bearish weekly DOE U.S. stocks report
that showed crude oil stocks in the U.S. at the highest
levels in 30 years. Trading remains choppy. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $94.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the October low of
$87.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $92.85
and then at the October high of $93.66. First support is
seen at today’s low of $91.55 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

November heating oil closed down 69 points at $3.1916
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw more
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the March high of $3.3389. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.1000. First resistance
lies at $3.2158 and then at this week’s high of $3.2303.
First support is seen at today’s low of $3.1694 and then at
$3.1500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 648 points at
$2.7805 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
on more profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage, but are now fading a bit. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.0000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at the September low of $2.7029.
First resistance is seen at $2.8000 and then at $2.8500.
First support is seen at today’s low of $2.7740 and then at
$2.7500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

November natural gas closed up 2.3 cents at $3.46 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a five-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.75. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$3.327. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.50
and then at this week’s high of $3.60. First support is
seen at today’s low of $3.398 and then at $3.35. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 80 points at 1.3130 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high again today and hit a fresh four-
week high. The Euro bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today.
Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the September high of 1.3183. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at this week’s low of 1.2898. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3147 and
then at 1.3193. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.3090 and then at 1.3000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The December Japanese yen closed down 5 points at 1.2675
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another
fresh four-week low today. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading, but
the bulls are fading. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last
week’s high of 1.2836. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the September low of 1.2631. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2727 and then at 1.2750. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.2656 and then at 1.2631. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

The December Swiss franc closed up 50 points at 1.0851
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a
fresh 5.5-month high today. The Swissy bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
upside momentum today. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.1000. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the October low of 1.0609. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0861 and then at
1.0900. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0823 and
then at 1.0750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The December Australian dollar closed up 112 points at
1.0329 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
hit a fresh three-week high. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0400. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at this week’s low of
1.0150. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0339
and then at 1.0375. Next support is seen at 1.0300 and then
at today’s low of 1.0240. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The December Canadian dollar closed up 93 points at 1.0210
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained
some upside momentum today. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the October high of 1.0256. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the October low of 1.0099.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0219 and then
at 1.0256. First support is seen at 1.0150 and then at
1.0099. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The December British pound closed up 37 points at 1.6145
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the October high of
1.6213. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at 1.5900. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6175 and then at
1.6213. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.6108 and
then at Tuesday’s low of 1.6057. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

The December U.S. dollar index closed down 37 points at
79.08 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a
fresh three-week low today. The bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of 80.31. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the
September low of 78.72. Next resistance lies at today’s
high of 79.27 and then at 79.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of 78.97 and then at 78.72. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 25/32 at 146 13/32
today. Prices closed near the session low again today and
hit a fresh four-week low. Bulls are fading badly and the
bears now have the near-term technical advantage as it
appears the market place is taking a more “risk on”
mentality. The next downside price breakout objective for
the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the August low of 145 23/32. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 149 even. First
resistance is seen at 147 even and then at 147 10/32. First
support is seen at today’s low of 146 12/32 and then at 146
even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 27.5 (32nds) at 132.00.5
today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh
four-week low today. Bulls faded badly today and bears have
the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 133.00.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at the September low of 131.23.0.
First resistance is seen at 132.08.0 and then at 132.16.0.
First support is seen at today’s low of 132.00.0 and then
at 131.23.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher again today. The stock index bulls maintain the
overall near-term technical advantage and are regaining
upside near-term technical momentum. Stock market bulls
were boosted somewhat by a very strong U.S. housing starts
report. The housing report follows recent U.S. economic
data that has shown improvement in the U.S. economy. In
overnight news, Asian and European stock markets rose
Wednesday, partly due to Moody’s latest announcement that
it has left Spain’s credit rating unchanged. Many had
feared the ratings agency would lower Spain’s credit rating
to junk status. Meantime, reports said Spain is moving
closer to formally asking the European Union for further
financial assistance. Spanish bond yields fell to six-month
lows overnight. The Euro currency on Wednesday was boosted
following those developments. Also overnight the German
government cut its economic growth forecast for 2013, while
slightly raising its projection for growth this year.
Germany’s economy minister said the European Union debt
crisis is dampening economic growth in Europe. He forecast
German economic growth at 1% in 2013, a downward revision
from the 1.6% growth forecast the government had issued
earlier. Germany’s 2012 economic growth rate was pegged at
0.8%, from a 0.7% rate predicted earlier. The market place
is awaiting key events on Thursday. China is expected to
issue its third-quarter gross domestic product data, while
the EU leaders summit begins Thursday.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 5.25 at 2,770.50.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the September high of 2,871.75. The bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the August low of
2,600.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,778.75 and then at 2,800.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 2,753.50 and then at 2,729.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 8.30 at 1,457.10.
Prices closed near the session high again today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the September high of 1,467.50.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid support at the September low of
1,394.80. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1,456.30 and then at 1,467.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,446.30 and then at 1,435.20. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

The Dow futures closed up 36 points at 13,489. Prices
closed near the session high today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of 13,597. The
next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of 12,965. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high
of 13,500 and then at 13,550. First support is seen at
today’s low of 13,440 and then at 13,400. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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