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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 10

Oct 11, 2012

Wednesday Evening, October 10-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.15 at
$126.57 today. Prices closed near the session low again
today on some mild profit taking from recent gains. Gains
this week have been limited by a stronger U.S. dollar
index. While cattle bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, the cash market fundamentals are
improving. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $128.00. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of $123.95.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $127.17 and
then at $127.50. First support is seen at $126.00 and then
at $125.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

November feeder cattle closed steady at $146.70 today.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $148.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $143.80.
First resistance is seen at $147.00 and then at last week’s
high of $147.25. First support is seen at $146.05 and then
at $145.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December lean hogs closed up $1.30 at $78.10 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh nine-week
high today. Hog market bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more power today. A four-
week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is
to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$80.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$75.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $78.25
and then at $79.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$77.45 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

xxx*. GRAINS: December corn futures were down 5 3/4 cents
at 7.36 1/4 in late trading today. Prices were near mid-
range. The corn bulls still have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage, but have faded and need to show
fresh power soon. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s
latest USDA supply and demand report. Corn bulls' next
upside price objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of $7.68
1/2. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the September low of $7.05. First resistance for
December corn is seen at today’s high of $7.43 1/2 and then
at $7.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.32 1/4
and then at $7.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November soybeans were down 26 1/2 cents at $15.23 1/2 a
bushel in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session low today and were poised to close at a fresh
three-month low close. Traders are awaiting Thursday
morning’s latest USDA supply and demand report. There are
notions that report will be bearish for soybeans. Soybean
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. However, bulls are fading and a five-week-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next
near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $15.74 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below major support at
$15.00. First resistance is seen at $15.35 and then at
today’s high of $15.50. First support is seen at today’s
low of $15.18 and then at last week’s low of $15.04.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December soybean meal was down $7.70 at $463.30 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
poised to close at a fresh three-month low close. Meal
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. However, bulls are fading and prices are in a five-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at $491.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$450.00. First resistance comes in at $465.00 and then at
today’s high of $470.70. First support is seen at today’s
low of $459.80 and then at last week’s low of $455.10.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

December bean oil was down 66 points at 50.59 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near the session low. Bean oil
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. A bear flag pattern has also formed on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 52.65 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at 51.00 cents and then at today’s high of 51.55 cents.
First support is seen at last week’s low of 50.06 cents and
then at 50.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 6 3/4 cents at $8.71 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. Traders are
awaiting Thursday morning’s latest USDA supply and demand
report. Prices remain in a choppy and sideways trading
range at higher price levels, but now at the bottom of that
range. My bias is still that this market has put in a major
top. Wheat bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $9.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the September low of $8.49 1/4. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $8.76 3/4 and then at $8.85.
First support lies at today’s low of $8.63 1/2 and then at
this week’s low of $8.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 5 1/2 cents at $8.94 1/4 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. Trading
remains in a choppy and sideways trading range at higher
price levels. Prices are near the bottom of that range. The
HRW bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $9.33 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at the September low of $8.72 1/2. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $9.00 3/4 and then at $9.10. First
support is seen at today’s low of $8.87 3/4 and then at
this week’s low of $8.78. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December oats were up 5 3/4 cents at $3.83 3/4 today in
late trading. Prices were nearer the session high and hit a
fresh three-week high. Oats bulls have the near-term
technical advantage and have regained upside momentum this
week. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $3.58. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.95. First support lies at $3.80
and then at today’s low of $3.75 1/2. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $3.86 1/2 and then at $3.90.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 39 points at 21.08 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
stronger U.S. dollar index this week has limited buying
interest in the sugar market. Sugar bulls and bears are now
back on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at 22.00 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 20.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 21.25 cents and then at
21.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 20.86
cents and then at 20.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

December coffee closed down 200 points at 163.30 cents.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit another
fresh four-week low. The stronger U.S. dollar index this
week is bearish for coffee. Coffee bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for
the bulls is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 175.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of 156.55
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 165.00 cents and
then at today’s high of 166.95 cents. First support is seen
at 162.50 cents and then at 160.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

December cocoa closed down $44 at $2,373 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and closed at a fresh
nine-week low close today. Cocoa prices are in a four-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have gained the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,500.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,300. First resistance is seen at $2,400 and then at
today’s high of $2,427. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $2,363 and then at $2,350. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

December cotton closed up 26 points at 72.10 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today in more quiet
trading. Short covering in a bear market was featured. The
stronger U.S. dollar index has limited buying interest in
cotton this week. Cotton bears still have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 75.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the July
low of 69.40 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of 72.65 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support
is seen at 71.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 70.22
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

November orange juice closed down 90 points at $1.1110
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another
fresh six-week low today. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at last week’s high of $1.1695.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the August low of $1.0350. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1.1295 and then at $1.1370. First support
is seen at $1.1000 and then at $1.0900. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

November lumber futures closed up $4.80 at $277.60 today.
Short covering was featured. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the September low of $268.80. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of $288.00. First resistance is seen at $280.00 and then at
$282.00. First support is seen at $275.00 and then at this
week’s low of $272.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $0.40 an ounce
at $1,764.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
saw some more profit taking and chart consolidation. A
stronger U.S. dollar index this week has limited buying
interest in gold. Gold bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are still in a three-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the 2012 high of
$1,800.90. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at
$1,738.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1,770.00 and then at $1,775.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,758.50 and then at $1,753.20. Wyckoff’s
Market Rating: 7.5

December silver futures closed up $0.12 an ounce at $34.11
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. A
stronger U.S. dollar has limited the upside in silver this
week. Silver bulls are still in overall near-term technical
command, but have faded a bit and need to show some fresh
power soon. Prices are still in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart, but just barely. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $35.445 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
$33.36. First resistance is seen at $34.26 and then at this
week’s high of $34.605. Next support is seen at today’s low
of $33.74 and then at this week’s low of $33.57. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 20 points at 372.00 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. A
stronger U.S. dollar index has limited gains in copper this
week. Copper bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a nine-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart, but just barely. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the September high of
383.95 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 364.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 375.00
cents and then at this week’s high of 377.00 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 369.35 cents and then at
368.05 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed down $1.03 a barrel
at $91.38 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. Trading remains choppy. Some fresh tensions in the
Middle East have helped to support the market lately.
However, tepid world economic conditions are prompting
demand concerns. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at $95.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $87.70. First
resistance is seen at $92.00 and then at $93.00. First
support is seen at $91.00 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

November heating oil closed up 17 points at $3.2049 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and did hit a
fresh three-week high. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the September high of $3.2633. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at the September low of
$3.0227. First resistance lies at today’s high of $3.2424
and then at $3.2633. First support is seen at $3.1750 and
then at $3.1500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 39 points at
$2.9626 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit
another fresh six-month high amid problems at U.S.
refineries that have helped drive gasoline futures sharply
higher. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the September low of
$2.7029. First resistance is seen at $3.0000 and then at
$3.0250. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.9445
and then at $2.9250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

November natural gas closed up 0.4 cents at $3.471 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. A bullish pennant pattern has
formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.70. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $3.25. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of $3.515 and then at last week’s
high of $3.546. First support is seen at $3.40 and then at
today’s low of $3.346. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 11 points at 1.2903 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today. The Euro bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in
a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but the
bulls need to show more power soon to keep it in place.
Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of 1.3183. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at 1.2768. First resistance for the Euro lies at
1.2950 and then at 1.3000. Next support is seen at today’s
low of 1.2844 and then at last week’s low of 1.2813.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The December Japanese yen closed up 9 points at 1.2802
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage
but need to show more power soon. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the September high of 1.2977. Bears' next downside
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the September low of 1.2631. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 1.2815 and then at 1.2850.
First support is seen at 1.2757 and then at this week’s low
of 1.2704. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The December Swiss franc closed up 21 points at 1.0667
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
Swissy bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
September high of 1.0838. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0678 and then at 1.0700. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0614 and then at last week’s low
of 1.0609. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The December Australian dollar closed up 23 points at
1.0177 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
However, prices have been trending lower for the past four
weeks and bulls have faded. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at 1.0300. The next downside breakout objective
for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the September low of 1.0077. First resistance is
seen at 1.0213 and then at 1.0250. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0126 and then at this week’s low of
1.0089. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The December Canadian dollar closed down 39 points at
1.0176 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at the September high of
1.0359. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of 1.0099. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0221 and then at last week’s high of
1.0256 and then at 1.0300. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0171 and then at 1.0150. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

The December British pound closed up 4 points at 1.6006
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have
faded badly recently. Prices have been trending lower for
the past three weeks. Bulls do still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage but need to show
fresh power soon to keep it. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.6213. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at 1.5900. First resistance is
seen at 1.6041 and then at 1.6100. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.5972 and then at 1.5900. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

The December U.S. dollar index closed down 6 points at
80.00 today. Prices closed near the session low today after
hitting a fresh four-week high early on. The bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. However,
the bulls have recently gained some fresh upside momentum.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 80.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the
September low of 78.72. Next resistance lies at today’s
high of 80.31 and then at 80.60. First support is seen at
79.57 and then at this week’s low of 79.43. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 27/32 at 148 26/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Some fresh
safe-haven demand was seen in bonds today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field as a 2.5-
month-old downtrend line is still in place on the daily bar
chart. The next downside price breakout objective for the
T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the September low of 144 15/32. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the late-September high
of 150 9/32. First resistance is seen at 149 even and then
at 149 16/32. First support is seen at 148 even and then at
today’s low of 147 15/32 and then at this week’s low of 147
10/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 6.0 (32nds) at 133.07.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after
hitting a fresh three-week low early on. Bulls have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at the September high of
133.27.0. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at 132.08.0. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 133.11.0 and then at 133.15.5. First support is
seen at 133.00.0 and then at today’s low of 132.26.0.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower again today. Bulls are fading. It was a modest “risk-
off” trading day in the market place Wednesday. The
European Union sovereign debt crisis and specifically the
countries of Greece and Spain remain a major worry for
traders and investors. The Fitch credit rating agency
Wednesday warned about a deteriorating EU debt crisis.
Meantime, the International Monetary Fund said European
banks may be forced to sell over $4 trillion in assets if
the EU debt crisis cannot be brought under control. A
German government bond auction was very well subscribed
Wednesday, which underscored the higher levels of investor
anxiety among European investors. Spain government
officials have yet to formally ask for further EU financial
assistance, which is perplexing many European market
watchers. A formal bailout request from Spain would see the
European Central Bank kick in its government bond-buying
program that was announced several weeks ago.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 10.25 at
2,723.75. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit
another fresh seven-week low today. Bulls are fading.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the September high of
2,871.75. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
August low of 2,600.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 2,743.75 and then at 2,762.25. First support is
seen at today’s low of 2,717.25 and then at 2,700.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 9.40 at 1,426.50.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh two-
week low today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at the September
high of 1,467.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the September low of 1,394.80. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 1,437.50 and then at 1,450.00.
First support is seen at 1,424.50 and then at 1,415.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The Dow futures closed down 137 points at 13,275. Prices
closed near the session low and hit a fresh four-week low
today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 13,597. The next downside price objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the September low of 12,965. First resistance in
the Dow lies at 13,300 and then at 13,350. First support is
seen at today’s low of 13,261 and then at 13,200. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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