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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 11

Oct 12, 2012

Thursday Evening, October 11-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.65 at
$125.92 today. Prices closed near the session low again
today and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily
bar chart. Cattle bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage and gained some fresh downside momentum
today. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at today’s high of $127.32. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of $123.95. First resistance is seen at $126.50 and then at
$127.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $125.75
and then at $125.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

November feeder cattle closed down $2.90 at $143.80 today.
Prices closed at a fresh six-week low close as corn futures
prices posted sharp gains today. Feeder bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
this week’s high of $146.95. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at $142.00. First
resistance is seen at $144.50 and then at $145.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $143.80 and then at
$143.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

December lean hogs closed down $0.60 at $77.50 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw some
profit taking from recent gains. The losses in the cattle
futures markets also spilled over into selling pressure in
hogs today. Hog market bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. A four-week-old uptrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $80.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $75.75. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $78.25 and then
at $79.00. First support is seen at $77.00 and then at
today’s low of $76.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were up 37 cents at 7.73
3/4 in late trading today. Prices were near the session
high and hit a fresh four-week high today following the
release of a bullish USDA report Thursday morning. The key
“outside markets” were also bullish for the corn market
today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil
prices were firmer. Today’s price action was critical on a
near-term basis. A two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart was soundly negated today and now a fledgling uptrend
line is in place on the daily bar chart. The corn bulls
today regained solid upside technical momentum to suggest
prices can continue to trend higher in the near term. Corn
bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close
prices above psychological resistance at $8.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of $7.32 1/4. First resistance for December corn
is seen at today’s high of $7.76 and then at $7.80. First
support is seen at $7.68 1/2 and then at $7.60. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

November soybeans were up 24 1/4 cents at $15.47 1/2 a
bushel in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range
and saw buying support from a bullish USDA stocks report
this morning. The key “outside markets” were also bullish
for the bean market today as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Soybean bulls
today regained the slight near-term technical advantage.
However, a six-week-old downtrend is still in place on the
daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing November prices above solid technical resistance at
this week’s high of $15.74 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below major support at $15.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $15.68 and then at
$15.74. First support is seen at $15.40 and then at $15.30.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December soybean meal was up $10.00 at $472.60 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high. Meal
bulls regained the slight near-term technical advantage
today. However, prices are still a five-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $491.60. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $450.00. First
resistance comes in at $475.00 and then at today’s high of
$479.50. First support is seen at $470.00 and then at
$465.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December bean oil was up 69 points at 51.32 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the bean oil market today as the
U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were
firmer. Bean oil bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 52.65 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 51.55 cents and then at 52.00 cents.
First support is seen at 51.00 cents and then at this
week’s low of 50.56 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 17 1/2 cents at $8.87 1/4
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high
and scoring a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the wheat
market today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude
oil prices were firmer. Wheat was also supported by the big
gains in corn today. Prices remain in a choppy and sideways
trading range at higher price levels, but bulls gained some
fresh upside technical momentum today. Wheat bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next
upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at $9.00 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of $8.49 1/4. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.94 and then at
$9.00. First support lies at $8.75 and then at $8.70.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 19 3/4 cents at $9.17 1/4 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and
scoring a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
Trading remains in a choppy and sideways trading range at
higher price levels. However, bulls gained fresh upside
momentum today. The HRW bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $9.33 1/2. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of $8.72 1/2.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.25 1/2 and
then at $9.33 1/2. First support is seen at $9.10 and then
at $9.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

December oats were up 5 1/2 cents at $3.89 today in late
trading. Prices were near mid-range and hit a fresh four-
week high. Oats bulls have the near-term technical
advantage and have regained good upside momentum this week.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.70.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above major psychological resistance at
$4.00. First support lies at $3.86 1/2 and then at today’s
low of $3.81 1/2. First resistance is seen at $3.90 and
then at today’s high of $3.96. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 79 points at 20.47 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh two-week low. The key “outside markets” were bullish
for the sugar market today as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Yet, sugar prices
sold off sharply, which is a bearish clue. Sugar bears now
have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of 21.77
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
20.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 20.86 cents and
then at 21.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 20.21 cents and then at 20.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

December coffee closed down 260 points at 160.85 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh four-week low. The key “outside markets” were bullish
for the coffee market today as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Yet, coffee sold
off and that’s another bearish clue. Coffee bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside
breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 175.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of 156.55 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 163.70 cents and then at 166.95 cents.
First support is seen at 160.00 cents and then at 156.55
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

December cocoa closed down $26 at $2,346 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 10-week
low. Cocoa prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage and gained more downside momentum today. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
this week’s high of $2,453. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $2,300. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,394 and then at
$2,427. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,341
and then at $2,325. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

December cotton closed down 150 points at 70.60 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and were
pressured by a bearish USDA report. Bulls gained fresh
downside momentum today. Cotton bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the October high of 72.65 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the July low of 69.40 cents. First resistance is
seen at 71.50 cents and then at today’s high of 72.00
cents. First support is seen at the October low of 70.22
cents and then at 69.40 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

November orange juice closed up 145 points at $1.1275
today. Prices closed nearer the session low in a big
trading range day that saw prices score a bullish “outside
day” up on the daily bar chart and hit a fresh three-week
high. Bears do still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical
resistance at last week’s high of $1.1695. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at the
August low of $1.0350. First resistance is seen at $1.1500
and then at $1.1695. First support is seen at $1.1000 and
then at today’s low of $1.0870. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0.

November lumber futures closed up $5.70 at $283.30 today.
More short covering and fresh spec buying were featured.
Bulls today regained the near-term technical advantage.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of $268.80. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $288.00. First resistance is seen at
$285.00 and then at $288.00. First support is seen at
$280.00 and then at $277.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $4.60 an ounce
at $1,769.70 today. Prices closed near mid-range again
today and saw some bargain hunting and more chart
consolidation. The key “outside markets” were bullish for
the gold market today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker
and crude oil prices were firmer. Gold bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The gold
bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the 2012 high of
$1,800.90. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at
$1,738.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1,776.60 and then at this week’s high of $1,782.50. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $1,758.50 and then at
$1,753.20. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.5

December silver futures closed down $0.039 an ounce at
$34.07 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for the silver market today
as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices
were firmer. That did limit selling pressure in silver.
Silver bulls are still in overall near-term technical
command, but have faded a bit and need to show some fresh
power soon. Prices are still in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart, but just barely. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $35.445 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
$33.36. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $34.38
and then at this week’s high of $34.605. Next support is
seen at today’s low of $33.815 and then at this week’s low
of $33.57. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 310 points at 374.90 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range and did score a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the copper market today as the
U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were
firmer. Copper bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the September high of 383.95 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 364.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 377.85
cents and then at 380.00 cents. First support is seen at
372.50 cents and then at 370.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed up $0.98 a barrel at
$92.22 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Trading
remains choppy. Prices today were supported on some fresh
tensions in the Middle East. However, a bearish weekly DOE
storage report today limited the upside in crude. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical
resistance at $95.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $87.70. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $92.94 and then at this week’s high of $93.66.
First support is seen at today’s low of $91.09 and then at
$90.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

November heating oil closed up 458 points at $3.2590 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and did hit a
fresh 6.5-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the March high of $3.3389. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.1000. First resistance
lies at today’s high of $3.2668 and then at $3.3000. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.2130 and then at
$3.1920. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 83 points at
$2.9506 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Problems
at U.S. refineries have helped drive gasoline futures
sharply higher recently. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at the September low of $2.7029. First resistance
is seen at $3.0000 and then at $3.0250. First support is
seen at today’s low of $2.9258 and then at $2.9000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

November natural gas closed up 13.0 cents at $3.605 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
9.5-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Prices today saw an upside breakout from a
bullish pennant pattern on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$3.327. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.628
and then at $3.70. First support is seen at $3.546 and then
at $3.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 35 points at 1.2940 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and scored a bullish “outside
day” up on the daily bar chart. The Euro bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in
a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but the
bulls need to show more power soon to keep it in place.
Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of 1.3183. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at 1.2768. First resistance for the Euro lies at
1.3000 and then at this week’s high of 1.3034. Next support
is seen at today’s low of 1.2833 and then at last week’s
low of 1.2813. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The December Japanese yen closed down 23 points at 1.2774
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need
to show more power soon. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
September high of 1.2977. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the September low of 1.2631. First resistance is seen at
1.2800 and then at today’s high of 1.2836. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.2730 and then at this week’s low
of 1.2704. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The December Swiss franc closed up 45 points at 1.0711
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
Swissy bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
September high of 1.0838. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0723 and then at this week’s high of
1.0774. First support is seen at 1.0650 and then at this
week’s low of 1.0614. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The December Australian dollar closed up 31 points at
1.0210 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have regained the slight near-term technical
advantage. However, prices have been trending lower for the
past four weeks. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
1.0300. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at the
September low of 1.0077. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0239 and then at 1.0260. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0156 and then at 1.0118. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

The December Canadian dollar closed up 22 points at 1.0199
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the September high of 1.0359. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
1.0099. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0226
and then at last week’s high of 1.0256 and then at 1.0300.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0153 and then at
last week’s low of 1.0099. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The December British pound closed up 37 points at 1.6038
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on some
short covering and bargain hunting. The bulls have faded
badly recently. Prices have been trending lower for the
past three weeks. Bulls have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage but need to show more power soon to
keep it. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of 1.6213. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
1.5900. First resistance is seen at 1.6100 and then at this
week’s high of 1.6139. First support is seen at this week’s
low of 1.5972 and then at 1.5900. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

The December U.S. dollar index closed down 15 points at
79.86 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 80.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the
September low of 78.72. Next resistance lies at 80.00 and
then at this week’s high of 80.31. First support is seen at
79.57 and then at this week’s low of 79.43. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 16/32 at 149 7/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high again today. Some fresh
safe-haven demand was seen in bonds again today. Bulls
today regained the slight near-term technical advantage.
The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the September low of 144 15/32. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the late-September high of 150
9/32. First resistance is seen at 150 even and then at 150
9/32. First support is seen at 149 even and then at 148
16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 1.5 (32nds) at 133.08.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today.
Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
September high of 133.27.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at 132.08.0. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 133.12.5 and then at 133.15.5.
First support is seen at 133.00.0 and then at this week’s
low of 132.26.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today. U.S. economic data released Thursday morning
had a modest bullish impact on the indexes, as a sharp
decline in weekly U.S. jobless claims was reported today.
The stock indexes saw no lasting reaction to news late
Wednesday that the Standard & Poors ratings agency
downgraded Spain’s credit rating to near junk status. The
Euro currency sold off and the U.S. dollar index rallied in
the immediate aftermath of that news. However, by Thursday
morning the Euro had recovered its losses and the dollar
index had pulled back. The S&P move was a bit surprising to
the market place, but not really a significant shocker to
change the overall perception of Spain’s financial
condition or the overall EU debt crisis. That notion was
reinforced by a fairly well-subscribed Italian government
bond auction on Thursday. However, the S&P downgrade did
bolster ideas Spain will seek further bailout funds from
the EU sooner rather than later.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 9.50 at
2,713.25. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit
another fresh seven-week low today. Bulls are fading.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the September high of
2,871.75. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
August low of 2,600.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 2,745.50 and then at 2,762.25. First support is
seen at today’s low of 2,712.00 and then at 2,700.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 2.10 at 1,428.40.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh four-
week low today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at the September
high of 1,467.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the September low of 1,394.80. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 1,439.00 and then at 1,450.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1,421.50 and then
at 1,410.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The Dow futures closed down 3 points at 13,265. Prices
closed near the session low again today and hit another
fresh four-week low. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 13,597. The next downside
price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 12,965. First
resistance in the Dow lies at 13,300 and then at today’s
high of 13,370. First support is seen at today’s low of
13,255 and then at 13,200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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