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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 16

Oct 17, 2012

Tuesday Evening, October 16-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.72 at
$126.70 today. Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart
and closed near mid-range today. Short covering and bargain
hunting were featured today. A weaker U.S. dollar index
also supported cattle today. Cattle bears do still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$127.32. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of $123.95. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $127.00 and then at
$127.32. First support is seen at today’s low of $126.40
and then at $126.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

November feeder cattle closed up $2.17 at $147.72 today.
The market saw heavy short covering and bargain hunting
today. Recent lower grain prices are also supportive for
feeders. Bulls have gained fresh upside technical momentum
this week and are back on a level near-term playing field
with the bears. The next upside price breakout objective
for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of
$149.52. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the September and October low of $143.80. First
resistance is seen at $148.00 and then at $148.50. First
support is seen at $147.00 and then at today’s low of
$146.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

December lean hogs closed up $0.10 at $78.65 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and closed at a fresh
2.5-month high close. Hog market bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old uptrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $80.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $75.75. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $78.80 and then at
$79.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $78.10
and then at $77.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were down 1 1/4 cents at
7.35 3/4 in late trading today. Prices were near the
session low. There were fresh worries in the corn market
today about high U.S. corn prices causing demand
destruction. Corn bulls have faded as prices now are
holding just above key chart support at last week’s low of
$7.32 1/4. A close below that level would open up downside
potential to the $7.00 area. If corn prices can hold above
that key level of $7.32 1/4 then the bulls would begin to
regain upside momentum to still suggest that a harvest low
is in place. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of $7.76. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $7.32 1/4.
First resistance for December corn is seen at $7.40 and
then at today’s high of $7.45 1/4. First support is seen at
$7.32 1/4 and then at $7.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November soybeans were up 4 3/4 cents at $14.97 1/4 a
bushel in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session low. Bulls are fading and are in trouble. Reports
that South American soybean plantings will be record-large
this year are also bearish for soybeans. Soybean bears have
the slight near-term technical advantage as a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart is in place. The next
near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $15.74 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $14.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $15.14 3/4 and then at $15.25. First support is seen at
this week’s low of $14.85 3/4 and then at $14.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5.

December soybean meal was down $1.70 at $454.40 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low today and
hit another fresh three-month low. Meal bears have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $479.50. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $450.00. First resistance comes in at
$460.00 and then at today’s high of $462.40. First support
is seen at today’s low of $453.70 and then at $450.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

December bean oil was up 49 points at 50.50 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on short
covering. A weaker U.S. dollar index was also supportive to
bean oil today. Bean oil bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old downtrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 52.29 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
48.64 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
50.74 cents and then at 51.00 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 50.01 cents and then at this week’s low
of 49.41 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

December Chicago SRW wheat was down 1 1/4 cents at $8.47 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
poised to close at a fresh three-month low close. Wheat has
been pressured by the big sell off in corn recently. Wheat
bears have some fresh downside technical momentum as prices
may finally be breaking out on the downside of a sideways
trading range at higher price levels. Bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. Wheat bulls’
next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago
SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $9.00 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $8.15. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of $8.60 1/4 and then at $8.70. First
support lies at this week’s low of $8.40 1/4 and then at
$8.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat was down 1 1/4 cents at $8.80 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low.
Trading remains in a choppy and sideways trading range at
higher price levels. However, bears have gained some fresh
downside momentum as prices are at the bottom of the
aforementioned trading range. The HRW bulls still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $9.25 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at the September low of $8.72 1/2. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of $8.94 3/4 and then at $9.00. First
support is seen at $8.72 1/2 and then at $8.65. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

December oats were up 2 1/4 cents at $3.90 1/4 today in
late trading. Prices were nearer the session low. Oats
bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $3.70.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above major psychological resistance at
$4.00. First support lies at today’s low of $3.88 and then
at this week’s low of $3.84 1/2. First resistance is seen
at $3.92 1/2 and then at today’s high of $3.95. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 31 points at 20.16 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. The weaker U.S. dollar
today was somewhat supportive for sugar. Sugar bears still
have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the October high of
21.77 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at the September low of 19.48 cents. First resistance is
seen at 20.25 cents and then at 20.50 cents. First support
is seen at 20.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 19.81
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December coffee closed up 135 points at 162.20 cents.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering
in a bear market. A weaker U.S. dollar index today also
supported coffee. Coffee bears still have the solid near-
term technical advantage. However, it’s around present
price levels that recent downtrends have been halted. The
next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 172.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of 156.55 cents a pound. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 163.45 cents and then at 165.00
cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 159.50
cents and then at 156.55 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5

December cocoa closed up $43 at $2,397 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today and saw short covering in a bear
market. The weaker U.S. dollar index today also supported
cocoa. Cocoa prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$2,453. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,300. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $2,434 and then at $2,453. First support is seen at
$2,375 and then at last week’s low of $2,338. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

December cotton closed up 252 points at 74.86 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high on heavy short covering and bargain
hunting. A weaker U.S. dollar index helped to boost cotton
today. Today’s price action in cotton produced a big and
bullish upside “breakout” from the recent sideways trading
range at lower price levels. Bulls have quickly gained
upside technical momentum and have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the August high of 77.49 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the September low of 70.22 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 75.17 cents and then at 76.00 cents.
First support is seen at 74.00 cents and then at 73.50
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November orange juice closed up 10 points at $1.1240 today.
Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.1695. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the August low of $1.0350. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1.1350 and then at $1.1445. First support
is seen at this week’s low of $1.1055 and then at last
week’s low of $1.0870. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

November lumber futures closed up $9.70 at $296.60 today.
Heavy short covering and fresh spec buying were featured
today as prices hit a fresh two-month high. Bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage and gained fresh upside
momentum today. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $283.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$300.00. First resistance is seen at $297.50 and then at
$300.00. First support is seen at $292.50 and then at
$290.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $8.50 an ounce
at $1,746.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and saw short covering and bargain hunting following
recent selling pressure. A weaker U.S. dollar index also
supported gold today. The gold bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage but need to show more power soon.
The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$1,775.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at
$1,720.00. First resistance is seen at $1,750.00 and then
at this week’s high of $1,755.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,736.10 and then at this week’s low of
$1,729.70. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5

December silver futures closed up $0.182 an ounce at
$32.925 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and saw short covering and bargain hunting following recent
selling pressure. The weaker U.S. dollar index today also
supported silver. Bulls still need to show fresh power soon
to avoid serious near-term technical damage being
inflicted. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $34.38
an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at $32.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$33.08 and then at this week’s high of $33.47. Next support
is seen at this week’s low of $32.57 and then at $32.25.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 40 points at 370.55 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Tepid short
covering and bargain hunting were seen. The weaker U.S.
dollar index also limited selling interest in copper today.
Copper bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage, but are fading a bit. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of 383.95
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
360.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
372.35 cents and then at 375.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 368.60 cents and then at this week’s
low of 364.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed up $0.18 a barrel at
$92.03 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
in quieter trading. Trading remains choppy. Prices have
been supported on tensions in the Middle East. However,
bearish demand prospects worldwide are limiting buying
interest. Thus, the choppy trading. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. The next near-
term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $95.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the October low of
$87.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $92.32
and then at $93.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$91.30 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

November heating oil closed down 173 points at $3.1919
today. Prices closed near the session low on profit taking.
Prices last week hit a 6.5-month high. Bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the March high of
$3.3389. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $3.1000.
First resistance lies at today’s high of $3.2158 and then
at this week’s high of $3.2303. First support is seen at
this week’s low of $3.1793 and then at $3.1500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 124 points at
$2.8389 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
on more profit taking. Problems at U.S. refineries have
helped drive gasoline futures sharply higher recently.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.0000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at the September low of $2.7029.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2.8988 and
then at $2.9500. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2.8294 and then at $2.8000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

November natural gas closed down 5.2 cents at $3.434 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today on more profit
taking after prices last Friday hit a 9.5-month high. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $3.327. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.519 and then at this week’s high of
$3.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.408 and
then at $3.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 107 points at 1.3056 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. The Euro bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage and regained some
upside momentum today. Prices are in a three-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the September high of
1.3183. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the
October low of 1.2813. First resistance for the Euro lies
at the October high of 1.3080 and then at 1.3100. Next
support is seen at 1.3000 and then at today’s low of
1.2950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The December Japanese yen closed down 33 points at 1.2682
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
four-week low today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field amid choppy trading, but the
bulls are fading. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last
week’s high of 1.2836. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the September low of 1.2631. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2715 and then at 1.2750. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.2668 and then at 1.2631. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

The December Swiss franc closed up 84 points at 1.0802
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a
fresh four-week high today. The Swissy bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
upside momentum today. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the September high of 1.0838. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the October low of
1.0609. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0812
and then at 1.0838. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.0723 and then at this week’s low of 1.0681. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

The December Australian dollar closed up 23 points at
1.0214 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at 1.0300. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the September low of
1.0077. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
1.0239 and then at 1.0260. Next support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0192 and then at this week’s low of 1.0150.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The December Canadian dollar closed down 86 points at
1.0117 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage
but faded today and need to show fresh power soon. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is producing a close
above chart resistance at the October high of 1.0256. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the October
low of 1.0099. First resistance is seen at 1.0150 and then
at today’s high of 1.0187. First support is seen at 1.0099
and then at 1.0050. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The December British pound closed up 38 points at 1.6108
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of 1.6213. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
1.5900. First resistance is seen at 1.6150 and then at
1.6213. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.6057 and
then at this week’s low of 1.6017. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed down 34 points at
79.46 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
The bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of 80.31. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the September low of 78.72. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 79.81 and then at this
week’s high of 80.04. First support is seen at today’s low
of 79.36 and then at the October low of 79.18. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 7/32 at 148 7/32 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls are fading
and are now on a level near-term technical playing field
with the bears. The next downside price breakout objective
for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the October low of 147 10/32. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the late-
September high of 150 9/32. First resistance is seen at 149
even and then at today’s high of 149 15/32. First support
is seen at 148 even and then at 147 16/32. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 14.0 (32nds) at 132.28.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
faded today and are now back on a level technical playing
field with the bears. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the September high of 133.27.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
132.08.0. First resistance is seen at 133.00.0 and then at
today’s high of 133.11.0. First support is seen at today’s
low of 132.25.5 and then at 132.16.0. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher again today. The stock index bulls maintain the
overall near-term technical advantage. Tuesday’s fresh
batch of U.S. economic data provided little direction for
the stock indexes. However, that data was not deemed
bearish. The consumer price index and industrial production
and capacity utilization data all came in very close to
pre-report expectations by the market place. So focus is on
corporate earnings reports that are expected to be decent.
In the overnight markets, European Union economic data
released Tuesday showed Euro zone inflation was unchanged
in September, at a 2.6% annual rate. The German ZEW
economic expectations index rose in September, suggesting
less risk for the German economy. The market place is
awaiting the latest GDP report from China, due out
Thursday. EU officials will also meet in Brussels Thursday
to once again discuss the EU debt crisis. The Euro currency
did get support Tuesday on reports Spanish officials are
considering making a formal request to the EU for financial
assistance.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 38.00 at 2,769.00.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the September high of 2,871.75.
The bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at the August
low of 2,600.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 2,777.25 and then at 2,800.00. First support is seen at
2,750.00 and then at today’s low of 2,729.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 14.00 at 1,449.50.
Prices closed near the session high. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the September high of 1,467.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the September low of
1,394.80. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1,451.20 and then at 1,467.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,435.20 and then at 1,425.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

The Dow futures closed up 91 points at 13,450. Prices
closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of 13,597. The
next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of 12,965. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high
of 13,485 and then at 13,500. First support is seen at
today’s low of 13,415 and then at 13,365. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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