Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 17
Oct 18, 2011
Monday Evening, October 17-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update
Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim
Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp
Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.
*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.45 at
$123.65 today. Prices closed near mid-range today after
hitting a fresh three-month high early on. The bulls still
have upside technical momentum. The overall supply and
demand fundamentals in the cash cattle market remain
bullish. Cattle bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of $125.50. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $120.30. First resistance is seen at $124.00 and
then at today’s high of $124.45. First support is seen at
today’s low of $123.20 and then at $122.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5
November feeder cattle closed steady at $144.42 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh three-
month high early on. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for
the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
technical resistance at the contract high of $145.90. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $142.00. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of $144.82 and then at today’s high of $145.25.
First support is seen at $144.00 and then at $143.40.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0
December lean hogs closed up $0.67 at $90.75 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today, hit a fresh contract
high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart. Hog bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage and gained more power today. However, market tops
have been put in place in recent months, near present price
levels. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $92.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $88.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s contract high of $91.15 and then at $91.50. First
support is seen at $90.00 and then at today’s low of
$89.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0
*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 1 1/4 cents at
$6.38 3/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The
market saw some mild selling pressure due to a firmer U.S.
dollar index and harvest pressure. While the corn bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage, they need to
show fresh power soon to keep it. Corn bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $6.80. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below psychological support at $6.00. First
resistance for December corn is seen at today’s high of
$6.47 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at today’s
low of $6.35 1/4 and then at $6.30. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5
November soybeans closed down 19 3/4 cents at $12.50 1/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed near the session low today and
saw a corrective pullback from recent gains. The market
also saw selling pressure due to a firmer U.S. dollar index
and harvest pressure. Bulls and bears are now back on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing November prices above psychological
resistance at $13.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below psychological support at $12.00. First
resistance is seen at $12.60 and then at today’s high of
$12.72. First support is seen at $12.40 and then at $12.30
1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
December soybean meal closed down $4.50 at $323.10 today.
Prices closed near the session low and saw a corrective
pullback from recent gains. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above
technical resistance at $340.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the October low of
$300.90. First resistance comes in at $325.00 and then at
$327.50. First support is seen at $322.50 and then at
$320.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
December bean oil closed down 76 points at 52.78 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw a
corrective pullback from recent solid gains. Bulls still
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 53.92 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
51.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 53.00 cents and
then at 53.50 cents. First support is seen at 52.50 cents
and 52.21. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5
December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 3 cents at $6.25 3/4
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. Wheat bears still have the
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$6.65 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below major psychological support at $6.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.35 1/4 and
then at $6.40. First support lies at today’s low of $6.19
and then at $6.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 7 1/2 cents at $7.15
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $7.50. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the October low of $6.79.
First resistance is seen at $7.25 and then at last week’s
high of $7.31 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of
$7.05 and then at $7.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
December oats closed down 1/2 cent at $3.39 1/2 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting a fresh
four-week high early on today. Bulls still have some upside
near-term technical momentum to suggest a market low is in
place. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at
$3.25. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $3.50. First support lies at today’s low of $3.37 1/2
and then at $3.35. First resistance is seen at $3.43 and
then at today’s high of $3.47. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 23 points at 27.70 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today after
hitting a fresh four-week high early on. The market saw a
corrective, profit-taking pullback today. Bulls have gained
upside momentum recently and still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Recent heavy rains in Thailand
have reportedly destroyed much of that country’s sugar
crop. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
29.00 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 26.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 28.00 cents and
then at today’s high of 28.35 cents. First support is seen
at 27.50 cents and then at 27.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5
December coffee closed down 555 points at 234.00 cents.
Prices closed near mid-range today after hitting a fresh
three-week high early on. The coffee market was pressured
by a stronger U.S. dollar index today. Coffee prices also
scored a big and bearish “outside day” down on the daily
bar chart today. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 246.55 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the October low of 219.80 cents
a pound. First resistance is seen at 236.00 cents and then
at 237.50 cents. First support is seen at 232.50 cents and
then at 230.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0
December cocoa closed down $70 at $2,601 a ton. Prices
closed near the session low today. A firmer U.S. dollar
index helped to pressure cocoa today. The cocoa bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$2,750. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the contract low of $2,540. First resistance is
seen at $2,650 and then at today’s high of $2,688. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2,596 and then at last
week’s low of $2,580. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
December cotton closed down 158 points at 100.36 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today and were
pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index. Cotton bulls and
bears are still on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 105.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
cotton bears is to push prices below solid technical
support at the September low of 98.21 cents. First support
is seen at last week’s low of 99.67 and then at 98.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 101.50 cents and then at
today’s high of 102.48 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
January orange juice closed down 120 points at $1.6630
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh nine-week high early on. Bulls still have the near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $1.7250. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at
$1.6000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1.6815 and then at $1.7000. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1.6575 and then at 1.6320. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.
November lumber futures closed up $3.30 at $224.30 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw short
covering in a bear market. The bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of $211.10. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $227.40. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $226.40 and then at $227.40. First
support is seen at today's low of $223.50 and then at
$221.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0
*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $7.00 an ounce
at $1,676.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range today
after hitting a fresh three-week high early on. Trading
remains choppy on a daily basis. A stronger U.S. dollar
index helped to pressure gold today. Gold bulls still have
the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside technical objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at $1,705.40. Bears' next near-
term downside price objective is closing prices below
psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1,696.80 and then at $1,700.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1,667.00 and then
at $1,650.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
December silver futures closed down $0.408 an ounce at
$31.765 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
A stronger U.S. dollar index pressured the silver market
today. Silver bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. Silver bulls' next upside price
objective is producing a close above strong technical
resistance at $33.585 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $30.00. First resistance is seen
at $32.00 and then at today’s high of $32.675. Next support
is seen at today’s low of $31.55 and then at $31.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
December N.Y. copper closed down 330 points 337.55 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today after
hitting a fresh three-week high early on. A stronger U.S.
dollar index and lower U.S. stock indexes pressured copper
today. Copper bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage as a 2.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the
daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 350.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 340.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 346.35 cents. First support is seen at 335.00 cents and
then at 330.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed down $0.32 a barrel
at $86.48 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
after hitting a fresh four-week high early on. Mild profit
taking from recent gains was seen. The firmer U.S. dollar
index today also put some downside price pressure on crude.
Crude bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at the September
high of $90.69 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $80.00. First
resistance is seen at $87.50 and then at today’s high of
$88.18. First support is seen at today’s low of $85.88 and
then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
November heating oil closed down 397 points at $3.0144
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after
hitting a fresh six-week high early on. Profit taking from
recent strong gains was seen today. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at today’s high of $3.0953.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $2.9000. First
resistance lies at $3.0500 and then at last week’s high of
$3.0667. First support is seen at $3.0000 and then at
$2.9700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 775 points at
$2.7472. Prices closed nearer the session low today after
hitting a fresh five-week high early on. Prices today also
scored a big and bearish “outside day” down on the daily
bar chart. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage but did fade today. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of
$2.8669. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of
$2.6497. First resistance is seen at $2.7713 and then at
$2.8000. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.7342
and then at $2.7000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
November natural gas closed down 3.4 cents at $3.669 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today after prices
Friday hit a fresh two-week high on short covering in a
bear market. The bears still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.926. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the contract low of $3.446.
First resistance is seen at $3.70 and then at today’s high
of $3.777. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.641
and then at $3.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 133 points at 1.3737 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today after hitting a fresh
four-week high early on. The bulls still have some upside
near-term technical momentum to suggest that a near-term
market low is in place. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.3925. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid chart support at 1.3500. First resistance for
the Euro lies at 1.3800 and then at 1.3825. Next support is
seen at 1.3700 and then at 1.3650. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0
The December Japanese yen closed up 66 points at 1.3027
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Trading
remains choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of
1.3120. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of 1.2860. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.3068 and then at 1.3100. First support is seen at 1.3000
and then at 1.2950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
The December Swiss franc closed down 71 points at 1.1138
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after
hitting a fresh four-week high early on. Bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.1400. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the October low of 1.0749. First
resistance is seen at 1.1200 and then at today’s high of
1.1272. First support is seen at 1.1100 and then at 1.1000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
The December Australian dollar closed down 138 points at
1.0120 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh five-week high early on. Bulls still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid chart resistance at 1.0400. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at .9800. First resistance is
seen at 1.0200 and then at today’s high of 1.0292. Next
support is seen at 1.0000 and then at .9900. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5
The December Canadian dollar closed down 86 points at .9785
today. Prices closed near the session low today after
hitting a fresh four-week high early on. Bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at 1.0000. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of .9611. First
resistance is seen at .9853 and then at .9900. First
support is seen at .9750 and then at .9719. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.
The December British pound closed down 64 points at 1.5740
today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Recent price
action suggests a near-term market low is in place. The
bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum.
Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage, however. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.6000. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at last week’s low of 1.5517. First resistance is
seen at last week’s high of 1.5842 and then at 1.5900.
First support is seen at 1.5700 and then at 1.5655.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
The December U.S. dollar index closed up 53 points at 77.44
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh four-week low early on. Short covering was featured
today. Significant near-term chart damage has occurred
recently to suggest a near-term market top is in place.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of 80.43. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at 76.00. Next resistance lies at 77.50 and then at
77.74. First support is seen at 77.00 and then at today’s
low of 76.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 9/32 at 139 22/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart after
hitting a fresh six-week low early on. Bulls have faded
recently but still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for
the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 136 even. The next upside technical objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 142 even. First resistance is seen at 140
even and then at 140 10/32. First support is seen at 139
even and then at 138 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
December U.S. T Notes closed up 16.5 (32nds) at 128.20.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, they have faded and need to show more power soon.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
127.00.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
128.24.0 and then at 129.00.0. First support is seen at
128.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 127.16.5. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower today on profit-taking pressure from recent gains and
due to some fresh worries about the European Union debt and
financial crisis. Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum to suggest that market lows are in place
and that prices can trend sideways to higher into the end
of the year.
The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 44.75 at
2,322.75 today. Prices closed near the session low today
after hitting a fresh 2.5-month high early on. Prices also
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50.
The bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 2,100.00.
First resistance is seen at 2,350.00 and then at today’s
high of 2,388.50. First support is seen at 2,300.00 and
then at 2,289.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
The S&P 500 futures index closed down 2.40 at 1,216.80.
Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a
fresh 2.5-month high early on. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1,300.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at
1,100.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1,230.70 and then at 1,250.00. First support is seen at
1,200.00 and then at 1,180.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.
The Dow futures closed down 265 points at 11,301 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the September high of 11,700. The
next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 11,000. First
resistance in the Dow lies at 11,350 and then at 11,400.
First support is seen at today’s low of 11,300 and then at
11,250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
