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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 20

Oct 21, 2011
Thursday Evening, October 20-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website. http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets. *. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $1.20 at $121.75 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more profit-taking pressure. No chart damage occurred the bulls have faded and need to show fresh power soon. Traders are awaiting Friday afternoon’s USDA cattle-on-feed report. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $124.45. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $120.30. First resistance is seen at $122.00 and then at $122.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $121.05 and then at $120.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0 November feeder cattle closed down $0.62 at $142.02 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more profit taking from recent gains. Prices hit a fresh two- week low today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $145.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $140.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $142.50 and then at $143.00. First support is seen at $141.50 and then at today’s low of $141.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5 December lean hogs closed down $0.02 at $90.05 today. Prices closed near the session high. There was some very bullish cash hog market fundamental news today, in the form of strong cash market prices. However, futures could not rally on that news, which is a signal all the bullish fundamental news has been factored into the hog market. Hog bulls do still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, market tops have been put in place in recent months, near present price levels. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $92.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $88.00. First resistance is seen at today’s $90.05 and then at $90.85. First support is seen at $89.50 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5 *. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 11 1/2 cents at $6.50 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The corn bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.80. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $6.00. First resistance for December corn is seen at the October high of $6.55 and then at $6.60. First support is seen at $6.45 and then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 November soybeans closed down 3 3/4 cents at $12.21 1/4 a bushel today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above technical resistance at last week’s high of $12.75 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.26 1/4 and then at $12.40. First support is seen at $12.11 1/2 and then at $12.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. December soybean meal closed up $0.60 at $319.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above technical resistance at $340.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $300.90. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $321.20 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at $317.40 and then at today’s low of $314.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. December bean oil closed down 26 points at 51.22 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 53.92 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.57 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at 51.00 cents and then at today’s low of 50.54 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5 December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 12 cents at $6.31 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw short covering in a bear market. Wheat bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $6.65 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.37 3/4 and then at $6.50. First support lies at $6.20 and then at this week’s low of $6.13. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5. December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 17 1/2 cents at $7.25 today. Prices closed near the session high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.50. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $6.79. First resistance is seen at the October high of $7.31 3/4 and then at $7.40. First support is seen at $7.15 and then at $7.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5. December oats closed down 1/4 cent at $3.36 3/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at $3.25. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.50. First support lies at today’s low of $3.34 and then at $3.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.39 3/4 and then at $3.43 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 *. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 8 points at 26.89 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have faded this week. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 28.35 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 26.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 27.10 cents and then at 27.50 cents. First support is seen at 26.50 cents and then at today’s low of 26.13 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 December coffee closed down 315 points at 233.00 cents. Prices closed near mid-range again today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 246.55 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 219.80 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 236.85 cents and then at 239.25 cents. First support is seen at 230.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 228.35 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0 December cocoa closed down $26 at $2,577 a ton. Prices closed near mid-range today. The cocoa bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,611 and then at $2,648. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,545 and then at the contract low of $2,523. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0. December cotton closed down 286 points at 96.86 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh nine-week low. Cotton bears today gained the near- term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 102.48 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push prices below solid technical support at the August low of 93.72 cents. First support is seen at 96.00 cents and then at 95.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 98.00 cents and then at 99.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0. January orange juice closed up 165 points at $1.6990 today. Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a fresh nine-week high close. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh upside momentum this week. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.7250. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.6000. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1.7090 and then at $1.7250. First support is seen at $1.6770 and then at today’s low of $1.6535. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5. November lumber futures closed down $5.80 at $216.20 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $211.10. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $230.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $217.00 and then at $220.00. First support is seen at today's low of $214.50 and then at $211.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5 *. METALS: December gold futures closed down $34.00 an ounce at $1,613.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh two-week low. The market was pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar index and another “risk off” day in the market place, which has been bearish for safe-haven gold when it has occurred in recent trading sessions. Gold bulls have faded this week. Bears now have the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,705.40. Bears' next near- term downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at $1,625.00 and then at today’s high of $1,646.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,604.70 and then at $1,600.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. December silver futures closed down $0.922 an ounce at $30.37 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and were pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar index. Silver bears now have the slight near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above strong technical resistance at $33.585 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $28.435. First resistance is seen at $31.00 and then at today’s high of $31.375. Next support is seen at today’s low of $29.935 and then at $29.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. December N.Y. copper closed down 1,880 points 306.90 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh two-week low. Copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today as a 2.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 350.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 299.40 cents. First resistance is seen at 310.00 cents and then at 315.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 303.10 cents and then at 299.40 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5. *. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed down $0.10 a barrel at $86.21 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Crude bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field, but the bulls are fading. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above strong technical resistance at the September high of $90.96 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $83.00. First resistance is seen at $87.00 and then at $87.50. First support is seen at $85.75 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December heating oil closed up 450 points at $3.0250 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $3.1040. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $2.9000. First resistance lies at today’s high of $3.0307 and then at $3.0500. First support is seen at $3.0000 and then at today’s low of $2.9637. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 115 points at $2.6564. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $2.8431. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of $2.5861. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.6744 and then at $2.7000. First support is seen at $2.6250 and then at $2.6000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December natural gas closed up 1.9 cents at $3.832 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today and saw more tepid short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are back down near the contract low. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $4.039. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $3.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.906 and then at $4.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.79 and then at the contract low of $3.747. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0. *.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro currency closed up 36 points at 1.3774 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3925. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at 1.3500. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3837 and then at 1.3862. Next support is seen at 1.3700 and then at this week’s low of 1.3645. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 The December Japanese yen closed down 14 points at 1.3020 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Trading remains choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of 1.3120. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 1.2860. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.3068 and then at 1.3100. First support is seen at 1.3000 and then at today’s low of 1.2980. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. The December Swiss franc closed up 116 points at 1.1198 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1400. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 1.0749. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.1272 and then at 1.1300. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.1020 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0. The December Australian dollar closed up 36 points at 1.0181 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0400. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .9800. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.0292 and then at 1.0400. Next support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0041 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 The December Canadian dollar closed up 50 points at .9844 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of .9611. First resistance is seen at .9900 and then at this week’s high of .9941. First support is seen at .9800 and then at this week’s low of .9727. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0. The December British pound closed up 32 points at 1.5785 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Recent price action suggests a near-term market low is in place. The bulls have some upside near-term technical momentum. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6000. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of 1.5517. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.5847 and then at 1.5900. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5672 and then at this week’s low of 1.5621. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. The December U.S. dollar index closed down 20 points at 77.21 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Some near-term chart damage has occurred recently. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 78.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at this week’s low of 76.70. Next resistance lies at 77.50 and then at this week’s high of 77.85. First support is seen at 77.00 and then at this week’s low of 76.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 14/32 at 139 1/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 137 13/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 142 even. First resistance is seen at 140 even and then at this week’s high of 141 even. First support is seen at today’s low of 138 20/32 and then at 138 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. December U.S. T Notes closed down 3.5 (32nds) at 128.23.5 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the October low of 127.16.5. First resistance is seen at 129.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 129.09.5. First support is seen at today’s low of 128.13.0 and then at 128.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0 GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed mostly firmer today. Trading has turned choppy recently. Stock index bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum to suggest that market lows are in place and that prices can trend sideways to higher into the end of the year. The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 20.00 at 2,298.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 2,100.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,332.75 and then at 2,350.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 2,268.50 and then at 2,250.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. The S&P 500 futures index closed up 2.40 at 1,209.00. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,300.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at 1,100.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,230.70 and then at 1,250.00. First support is seen at 1,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,185.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. The Dow futures closed up 29 points at 11,473 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 11,700. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 11,000. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 11,520 and then at this week’s high of 11,570. First support is seen at 11,400 and then at today’s low of 11,340. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an explanation of my Market Rating System. http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/ IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. Jim Wyckoff
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