Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 20
Oct 21, 2011
Thursday Evening, October 20-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update
Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim
Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp
Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.
*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $1.20 at
$121.75 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
more profit-taking pressure. No chart damage occurred the
bulls have faded and need to show fresh power soon. Traders
are awaiting Friday afternoon’s USDA cattle-on-feed report.
The bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $124.45. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $120.30. First resistance is seen at
$122.00 and then at $122.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of $121.05 and then at $120.30. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0
November feeder cattle closed down $0.62 at $142.02 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more
profit taking from recent gains. Prices hit a fresh two-
week low today. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price objective for
the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
technical resistance at the contract high of $145.90. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
$140.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$142.50 and then at $143.00. First support is seen at
$141.50 and then at today’s low of $141.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5
December lean hogs closed down $0.02 at $90.05 today.
Prices closed near the session high. There was some very
bullish cash hog market fundamental news today, in the form
of strong cash market prices. However, futures could not
rally on that news, which is a signal all the bullish
fundamental news has been factored into the hog market. Hog
bulls do still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. However, market tops have been put in place in
recent months, near present price levels. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $92.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $88.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s $90.05 and then at $90.85.
First support is seen at $89.50 and then at $89.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5
*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 11 1/2 cents at
$6.50 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The
corn bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at $6.80. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $6.00. First resistance for December corn is
seen at the October high of $6.55 and then at $6.60. First
support is seen at $6.45 and then at $6.40. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5
November soybeans closed down 3 3/4 cents at $12.21 1/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed near the session high today.
Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The next
near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above
technical resistance at last week’s high of $12.75 3/4 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $12.26 1/4 and then at $12.40. First support is seen at
$12.11 1/2 and then at $12.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.5.
December soybean meal closed up $0.60 at $319.90 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above technical resistance at $340.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
October low of $300.90. First resistance comes in at
today’s high of $321.20 and then at $325.00. First support
is seen at $317.40 and then at today’s low of $314.20.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
December bean oil closed down 26 points at 51.22 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears
have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 53.92 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.57 cents and then
at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at 51.00 cents and
then at today’s low of 50.54 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5
December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 12 cents at $6.31 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Wheat bears still have the
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$6.65 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below major psychological support at $6.00.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.37 3/4
and then at $6.50. First support lies at $6.20 and then at
this week’s low of $6.13. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 17 1/2 cents at $7.25
today. Prices closed near the session high and scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.50.
The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the October
low of $6.79. First resistance is seen at the October high
of $7.31 3/4 and then at $7.40. First support is seen at
$7.15 and then at $7.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
December oats closed down 1/4 cent at $3.36 3/4 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid chart support at $3.25. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.50. First
support lies at today’s low of $3.34 and then at $3.30.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.39 3/4 and
then at $3.43 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 8 points at 26.89 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have faded this week. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of 28.35 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 26.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 27.10 cents and then
at 27.50 cents. First support is seen at 26.50 cents and
then at today’s low of 26.13 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0
December coffee closed down 315 points at 233.00 cents.
Prices closed near mid-range again today. The bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee
bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 246.55 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the October low of
219.80 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 236.85 cents and then at 239.25 cents. First
support is seen at 230.00 cents and then at this week’s low
of 228.35 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0
December cocoa closed down $26 at $2,577 a ton. Prices
closed near mid-range today. The cocoa bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,611
and then at $2,648. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2,545 and then at the contract low of $2,523. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0.
December cotton closed down 286 points at 96.86 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh nine-week low. Cotton bears today gained the near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 102.48 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push prices below solid technical support at
the August low of 93.72 cents. First support is seen at
96.00 cents and then at 95.00 cents. First resistance is
seen at 98.00 cents and then at 99.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.
January orange juice closed up 165 points at $1.6990 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
fresh nine-week high close. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage and have gained fresh upside momentum
this week. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $1.7250. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at $1.6000.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1.7090 and
then at $1.7250. First support is seen at $1.6770 and then
at today’s low of $1.6535. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
November lumber futures closed down $5.80 at $216.20 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at the contract low of $211.10. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $230.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$217.00 and then at $220.00. First support is seen at
today's low of $214.50 and then at $211.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5
*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $34.00 an
ounce at $1,613.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today and hit a fresh two-week low. The market was
pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar index and another “risk
off” day in the market place, which has been bearish for
safe-haven gold when it has occurred in recent trading
sessions. Gold bulls have faded this week. Bears now have
the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside technical objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at $1,705.40. Bears' next near-
term downside price objective is closing prices below
psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is
seen at $1,625.00 and then at today’s high of $1,646.50.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1,604.70 and then
at $1,600.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
December silver futures closed down $0.922 an ounce at
$30.37 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and were pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar index. Silver
bears now have the slight near-term technical advantage.
Silver bulls' next upside price objective is producing a
close above strong technical resistance at $33.585 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the October low of $28.435. First resistance is seen at
$31.00 and then at today’s high of $31.375. Next support is
seen at today’s low of $29.935 and then at $29.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
December N.Y. copper closed down 1,880 points 306.90 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh two-week low. Copper bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power
today as a 2.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily
bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 350.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the October low of 299.40 cents. First
resistance is seen at 310.00 cents and then at 315.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 303.10 cents
and then at 299.40 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.
*. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed down $0.10 a barrel
at $86.21 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. Crude bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field, but the bulls are fading. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above strong technical
resistance at the September high of $90.96 a barrel. The
next near-term downside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $83.00. First resistance is seen at $87.00 and
then at $87.50. First support is seen at $85.75 and then at
$85.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
December heating oil closed up 450 points at $3.0250 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the September high of
$3.1040. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $2.9000.
First resistance lies at today’s high of $3.0307 and then
at $3.0500. First support is seen at $3.0000 and then at
today’s low of $2.9637. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 115 points at
$2.6564. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of $2.8431. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
last week’s low of $2.5861. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2.6744 and then at $2.7000. First support
is seen at $2.6250 and then at $2.6000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.
December natural gas closed up 1.9 cents at $3.832 today.
Prices closed near mid-range again today and saw more tepid
short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are
back down near the contract low. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $4.039.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $3.70.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.906 and then
at $4.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.79 and
then at the contract low of $3.747. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.
*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 36 points at 1.3774 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3925. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.3500. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3837 and
then at 1.3862. Next support is seen at 1.3700 and then at
this week’s low of 1.3645. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
The December Japanese yen closed down 14 points at 1.3020
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Trading
remains choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of
1.3120. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of 1.2860. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1.3068 and then at 1.3100. First support is seen at 1.3000
and then at today’s low of 1.2980. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.
The December Swiss franc closed up 116 points at 1.1198
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1400. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the October low of
1.0749. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1.1272 and then at 1.1300. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.1020 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0.
The December Australian dollar closed up 36 points at
1.0181 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0400. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at .9800.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.0292 and
then at 1.0400. Next support is seen at this week’s low of
1.0041 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5
The December Canadian dollar closed up 50 points at .9844
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at 1.0000. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of .9611.
First resistance is seen at .9900 and then at this week’s
high of .9941. First support is seen at .9800 and then at
this week’s low of .9727. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
The December British pound closed up 32 points at 1.5785
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Recent
price action suggests a near-term market low is in place.
The bulls have some upside near-term technical momentum.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6000.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of
1.5517. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1.5847 and then at 1.5900. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.5672 and then at this week’s low of 1.5621.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
The December U.S. dollar index closed down 20 points at
77.21 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Some near-term chart damage has occurred recently. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 78.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at this
week’s low of 76.70. Next resistance lies at 77.50 and then
at this week’s high of 77.85. First support is seen at
77.00 and then at this week’s low of 76.70. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.
December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 14/32 at 139 1/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of 137 13/32. The next upside technical objective for
the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 142 even. First resistance is seen at 140
even and then at this week’s high of 141 even. First
support is seen at today’s low of 138 20/32 and then at 138
even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
December U.S. T Notes closed down 3.5 (32nds) at 128.23.5
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at the October low of 127.16.5.
First resistance is seen at 129.00.0 and then at this
week’s high of 129.09.5. First support is seen at today’s
low of 128.13.0 and then at 128.00.0. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mostly firmer today. Trading has turned choppy recently.
Stock index bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum to suggest that market lows are in place
and that prices can trend sideways to higher into the end
of the year.
The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 20.00 at
2,298.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 2,100.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,332.75 and then at
2,350.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 2,268.50
and then at 2,250.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
The S&P 500 futures index closed up 2.40 at 1,209.00.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1,300.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at 1,100.00. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1,230.70 and then at 1,250.00. First support
is seen at 1,200.00 and then at this week’s low of
1,185.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
The Dow futures closed up 29 points at 11,473 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the September high of 11,700. The
next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 11,000. First
resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 11,520 and
then at this week’s high of 11,570. First support is seen
at 11,400 and then at today’s low of 11,340. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.
Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
