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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 3

Oct 04, 2012

Wednesday Evening, October 3-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.35 at
$126.02 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and scored a mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily
bar chart. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish
posture for cattle today as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower. Cattle
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, this week’s price action suggests a market low is
in place. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $127.50. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $123.95.
First resistance is seen at $126.50 and then at $127.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $125.85 and then at
$125.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

November feeder cattle closed up $0.30 at $146.80 today.
Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading. More short
covering in a bear market was featured today. Bears still
have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$148.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at this week’s low of $143.80. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of $147.25 and then at $148.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $146.32 and then at
$146.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

December lean hogs closed down $0.97 at $75.87 today.
Prices hit a fresh two-month high early on today and then
backed off sharply to close near the session low. Prices
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart
today. Some profit taking from recent good gains was seen
today. The key “outside markets” were also in a bearish
posture for hogs today as the U.S. dollar index was higher
and crude oil prices were sharply lower. Hog market bulls
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $79.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $73.50. First
resistance is seen at $76.50 and then at $77.00. First
support is seen at $75.32 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were up 1 cent at 7.59 1/4
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for
corn today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude
oil prices were sharply lower. Prices remain in a seven-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The corn bulls
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Corn
bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $7.89 1/2. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$7.36 1/2. First resistance for December corn is seen at
this week’s high of $7.68 1/2 and then at $7.75. First
support is seen at $7.50 and then at this week’s low of
$7.46. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November soybeans were up 2 1/2 cents at $15.33 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and
did hit a fresh three-month low early on today. The key
“outside markets” were in a bearish posture for soybeans
today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were sharply lower. Bears have the slight near-term
technical advantage as a four-week-old downtrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing November prices above psychological
resistance at $16.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below major support at $15.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $15.43 3/4 and then at $15.50.
First support is seen at $15.15 and then at today’s low of
$15.04. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

December soybean meal was up $1.10 at $464.00 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and did
hit another fresh nine-week low early on today. Meal bears
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $491.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$450.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$468.30 and then at $470.00. First support is seen at
$460.00 and then at today’s low of $455.10. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5

December bean oil was up 11 points at 50.80 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on tepid
short covering after hitting another fresh 3.5-month low
early on today. Bean oil bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep four-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of 52.65 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.05 cents and then
at 51.35 cents. First support is seen at 50.50 cents and
then at today’s low of 50.06 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 1/2 cent at $8.72 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for
wheat today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude
oil prices were sharply lower. Prices remain in a choppy
and sideways trading range at higher price levels. My bias
is still that this market has put in a major top. Wheat
bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is
to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $9.07 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $8.49 1/4. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $8.78 1/2 and then at $8.85.
First support lies at today’s low of $8.58 and then at last
week’s low of $8.49 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat was down 1 cent at $8.91 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high today.
Trading remains in a choppy and sideways trading range at
higher price levels. The bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $9.33 1/2. The bears'
next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$8.72 1/2. First resistance is seen at $9.00 and then at
$9.08. First support is seen at today’s low of $8.77 3/4
and then at last week’s low of $8.72 1/2. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

December oats were up 3 cents at $3.63 1/4 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session high and hit
another fresh nine-week low early on today. Oats bears have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices
have been trending lower for the past month. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.57 3/4. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $3.80 3/4. First support lies at $3.57 3/4 and then at
$3.55. First resistance is seen at $3.67 1/4 and then at
$3.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 3 points at 21.56 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key
“outside markets” were in a bearish posture for sugar today
as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices
were sharply lower. Sugar bulls still have some upside
near-term technical momentum and have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at 22.00 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of 20.36 cents. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 21.72 cents and
then at 22.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 21.21 cents and then at 21.08 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

December coffee closed down 285 points at 180.80 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and did hit a
fresh nine-week high early on. The key “outside markets”
were in a bearish posture for coffee today as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Coffee bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the
July high of 194.85 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of 172.15 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at the September high of
183.70 cents and then at today’s high of 185.45 cents.
First support is seen at 180.00 cents and then at 177.95
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December cocoa closed down $48 at $2,427 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh six-
week low. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish
posture for cocoa today as the U.S. dollar index was higher
and crude oil prices were sharply lower. Cocoa bulls are
fading. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $2,595. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the August low of $2,364. First resistance is seen at
$2,450 and then at today’s high of $2,479. First support is
seen at today’s low of $2,400 and then at $2,364. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

December cotton closed up 31 points at 72.16 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw more
short covering after hitting a fresh two-month low on
Monday. Cotton bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 75.00 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at the July low of 69.40
cents. First resistance is seen at 72.67 cents and then at
73.00 cents. First support is seen at 71.00 cents and then
at this week’s low of 70.22 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0

November orange juice closed down 5 points at $1.1600
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today in
quieter trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical
resistance at $1.2250. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at $1.1000. First resistance is
seen at $1.1830 and then at $1.2000. First support is seen
at $1.1415 and then at last week’s low of $1.1200.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

November lumber futures closed down $4.40 at $277.50 today.
Prices closed near mid-range. Bulls and bears are now back
on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at last week’s low of $268.80. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $300.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $279.00 and then at
$282.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $276.00
and then at $275.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $3.00 an ounce
at $1,778.60 today. Prices closed near mid-range today on
more chart consolidation. Gold fared well today despite
bearish “outside markets” that included a firmer U.S.
dollar index and sharply lower crude oil prices. Gold bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
the 2012 high of $1,800.90. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $1,738.30. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $1,784.00 and then at the
September high of $1,790.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,773.00 and then at this week’s low of
$1,765.70. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0

December silver futures closed down $0.059 an ounce at
$34.61 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw more mild profit taking and some chart
consolidation. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish
posture for silver today as the U.S. dollar index was
firmer and crude oil prices were sharply lower. Silver
bulls are still in firm near-term technical command. Prices
are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $36.00 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $33.36. First resistance is seen at $35.00 and then
at this week’s high of $35.445. Next support is seen at
today’s low of $34.515 and then at this week’s low of
$34.21. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 210 points at 378.00 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were in a bearish posture for copper today as the
U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
sharply lower. Copper bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of 383.95
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
364.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 380.00 cents and
then at this week’s high of 382.25 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 376.10 cents and then at 375.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed down $3.86 a barrel
at $88.03 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit
a fresh two-month low today. There was no single event that
drove prices sharply lower. It was a combination of some
fresh, weak economic data coming out of China and a firmer
U.S. dollar index and technical selling. Bears have
regained the near-term technical advantage and re-
established a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $93.33 a
barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $85.00. First resistance
is seen at $88.95 and then at $90.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $87.70 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

November heating oil closed down 620 points at $3.0640
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
two-week low today. Bulls still have slight the near-term
technical advantage but did fade today. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of
$3.2633. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $3.0000.
First resistance lies at $3.1000 and then at today’s high
of $3.1297. First support is seen at $3.0500 and then at
the September low of $3.0227. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 735 points at
$2.7957 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage
but did fade today. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of $3.9884. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at the September low of $2.7029. First
resistance is seen at $2.8250 and then at $2.8500. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.7538 and then at
$2.7250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

November natural gas closed down 11.1 cents at $3.42 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw profit taking
after prices on Tuesday hit an 8.5-month high. Bulls still
have upside near-term technical momentum and have the near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.70. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.25. First resistance is seen
at $3.50 and then at this week’s high of $3.546. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.348 and then at $3.30.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 16 points at 1.2909 today. Prices
closed near mid-range in quieter trading today. The Euro
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of 1.3183. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at 1.2768. First resistance for the Euro lies at
this week’s high of 1.2979 and then at 1.3000. Next support
is seen at today’s low of 1.2888 and then at this week’s
low of 1.2813. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The December Japanese yen closed down 66 points at 1.2743
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh two-week low. Bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage but did fade again today.
There is some stiff overhead resistance that has stalled
recent rallies and such appears to be the case again.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the September high of
1.2977. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of 1.2631. First resistance is seen at 1.2800 and then at
1.2834. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2726 and
then at 1.2700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The December Swiss franc closed down 29 points at 1.0663
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
Swissy bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
September high of 1.0838. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0701 and then at this week’s high of
1.0728. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0652 and
then at this week’s low of 1.0609. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

The December Australian dollar closed down 50 points at
1.0138 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit
another fresh four-week low today. Bulls have faded badly
recently. Bulls and bears are now on a level near-term
technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
1.0400. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at the
September low of 1.0077. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0202 and then at 1.0260. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0132 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

The December Canadian dollar closed down 39 points at
1.0103 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a
fresh four-week low today. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage but are fading. Prices have
been trending lower for three weeks. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at 1.0250. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0025. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0147 and then at 1.0173. First support is
seen at the September low of 1.0059 and then at 1.0025.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The December British pound closed down 71 points at 1.6066
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week low on more profit taking. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but are
fading. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the September high of 1.6304. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.6000. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.6139 and then at this week’s high of 1.6185. First
support is seen at 1.6050 and then at 1.6000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 23 points at 80.06
today. Prices closed near the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. The bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 80.60. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the September low of 78.72. Next
resistance lies at this week’s high of 80.25 and then at
80.60. First support is seen at today’s low of 79.79 and
then at this week’s low of 79.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1/32 at 149 28/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and saw some profit
taking and chart consolidation. The bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the September low of 144
15/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
September high of 151 29/32. First resistance is seen at
last week’s high of 150 9/32 and then at 150 16/32. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 149 3/32 and then at
148 15/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 3.5 (32nds) at 133.24.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
closed at a fresh four-week high close. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 134.00.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at 132.24.0. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 133.25.5 and then at last week’s
high of 133.27.0. First support is seen at today’s low of
133.16.5 and then at this week’s low of 133.11.5. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today. Stock index bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The market place was subdued
Wednesday. U.S. economic data was issued with no major
surprises, and the stock indexes showed little reaction.
There was some more weak economic data coming out of China
overnight, as the Chinese non-manufacturing purchasing
managers index fell in September, while consumer sentiment
also weakened last month. Meantime, retail sales data in
the 17 countries of the Euro zone rose slightly in August,
for the fourth straight monthly gain. China is on holiday
this week, celebrating Golden Week. There will be important
U.S. economic data released Thursday and Friday, including
the FOMC minutes on Thursday and the employment report on
Friday. The market place will also monitor the U.S.
presidential debate Wednesday night. In Europe, the
European Central Bank and Bank of England hold meetings
Thursday. The Bank of Japan holds its monthly meeting
Thursday and Friday.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 12.75 at 2,808.00.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 2,900.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of 2,742.75.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 2,822.50
and then at 2,836.25. First support is seen at today’s low
of 2,788.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,772.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 3.80 at 1,444.70.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the September high of 1,467.50.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid support at 1,395.40. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,451.20 and then
at 1,467.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of
1,428.10 and then at 1,421.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

The Dow futures closed up 15 points at 13,426. Prices
closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,750. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 12,965. First
resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,460 and
then at 13,500. First support is seen at today’s low of
13,370 and then at last week’s low of 13,290. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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