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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--September 12

Sep 13, 2012

Wednesday Evening, September 12-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed up $0.60 at
$127.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit another fresh five-month high. Cattle bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained
more upside momentum this week as prices have seen an
upside “breakout” from a strong layer of resistance. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $129.00.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $125.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $127.75 and then at $128.00. First support is seen
at $127.00 and then at $126.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

October feeder cattle closed up $1.02 at $147.37 today.
Prices closed near the session high. Feeder cattle bulls
have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
150.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $144.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of $147.80 and then at $148.50. First support is seen
at today’s low of $146.55 and then at $146.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

October lean hogs closed up $0.70 at $73.42 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and
close prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s
high of $75.20. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical
support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $73.60 and then at $74.00. First support is seen at
$73.00 and then at today’s low of $72.40. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were down 9 3/4 cents at
$7.68 in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session
low and hit a fresh seven-week low today. The market was
pressured by a mildly bearish USDA report and on some more
profit taking. The corn bulls do still have the overall
near-term technical advantage, but are fading amid seasonal
harvest pressure and the fact this is a very mature and
tired-looking bull market. Prices have been trending lower
four the past four weeks. Corn bulls' next upside price
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $8.06 1/2. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $7.50.
First resistance for December corn is seen at $7.75 and
then at $7.80. First support is seen at today’s low of
$7.59 1/4 and then at $7.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

November soybeans were up 43 3/4 cents at $17.45 1/4 a
bushel in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session high and were scoring a big and bullish “outside
day” up on the daily bar chart. Beans got a boost from a
mildly bullish USDA report today. Soybean bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage and regained
upside technical momentum today, to suggest a new all-time
high is in the cards soon. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing November prices above solid resistance
at the contract high of $17.89 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the July
high of $16.91 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $17.50 and then at $17.60 1/2. First support is
seen at $17.25 and then at $17.16. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.5.

December soybean meal was up $14.40 at $530.40 in late
trading today. Prices were near the session high and
scoring a big and bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart. Meal bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and regained upside momentum today.
Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the contract high of $541.80. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at today’s
low of $511.20. First resistance comes in at today’s high
of $533.60 and then at $538.90. First support is seen at
$525.00 and then at $520.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

December bean oil was up 48 points at 56.36 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range and saw some
short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a fresh
three-week low early on. Bean oil bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 58.60 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 54.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 56.84 cents and then
at 57.00 cents. First support is seen at 56.00 cents and
then at today’s low of 55.68 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 7 1/4 cents at $8.91 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
Today’s USDA report was deemed neutral for wheat. Trading
remains choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Wheat
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at $9.26 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the August
low of $8.57 1/4. First resistance is seen at $9.00 and
then at this week’s high of $9.17 1/2. First support lies
at $8.80 and then at $8.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 6 1/2 cents at $9.10 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
The bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $9.36 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at the August low of $8.74 1/4. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $9.14 and then at $9.20. First support is
seen at $9.00 and then at last week’s low of $8.85 1/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

December oats were down 1/4 cent at $3.87 1/4 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session low. Oats bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.75.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
contract high of $4.14. First support lies at this week’s
low of $3.83 and then at $3.80. First resistance is seen at
$3.90 and then at today’s high of $3.91 3/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 23 points at 19.67 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on short covering
in a bear market. Sugar bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. There are still no early
clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at 20.39 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 18.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 19.92
cents and then at 20.39 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 19.44 cents and then at this week’s low of
19.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December coffee closed down 55 points at 177.00 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw some
mild profit taking and a corrective pullback from recent
strong gains. Bulls have still have some upside technical
momentum. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at
185.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 169.10 cents a pound. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 178.90 cents and then at this week’s
high of 180.00 cents. First support is seen at 175.00 cents
and then at 173.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

December cocoa closed up $10 at $2,642 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today. Cocoa bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,750.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $2,531. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of $2,679 and then at last week’s high of
$2,707. First support is seen at $2,600 and then at this
week’s low of $2,582. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

December cotton closed down 160 points at 73.33 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh four-week low in the wake of a bearish USDA report.
The bulls faded today as a three-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart was negated. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the August high of 77.49 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 71.59 cents. First resistance is seen at 74.00 cents and
then at 75.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 72.75 cents and then at 72.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

November orange juice closed up 205 points at $1.2615
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. FCOJ
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Traders will continue to watch for any fresh storms brewing
in the Atlantic. The next upside price breakout objective
for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above
technical resistance at this week’s high of $1.3030. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.1500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1.2775 and then at this week’s high of $1.3030. First
support is seen at $1.2500 and then at $1.2400. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

November lumber futures closed down $1.00 at $274.50 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high. Prices Monday hit a
two-month low and bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a steep four-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $260.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$287.50. First resistance is seen at $277.50 and then at
$280.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $272.00
and then at this week’s low of $270.60. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $1.50 an ounce
at $1,733.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today after hitting another fresh six-month high early on.
Profit taking and position evening were featured today.
Gold prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The gold market bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $1,775.00. Bears' next near-term
downside price objective is closing prices below
psychological support at $1,700.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1,749.50 and then at $1,760.00.
First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,727.00 and
then at $1,720.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.5

December silver futures closed down $0.281 an ounce at
$33.29 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a
fresh six-month high. Prices also scored a mildly bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart today, whereby
the high was higher and low was lower than the previous
session’s trading range, with a lower close. If there is
good follow-through selling pressure on Thursday, then a
bearish “key reversal” down would be confirmed, and that
would be an early technical clue that a near-term market
top is in place. But right now silver bulls are still in
firm near-term technical command. Prices are still in a
six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $35.00 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $32.00. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of $33.775 and then
at today’s high of $34.145. Next support is seen at $33.00
and then at today’s low of $32.51. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 65 points at 369.05 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh four-month high. Some mild profit taking was seen
today following recent strong gains. Copper bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 380.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 373.15 cents and then
at 375.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
366.20 cents and then at this week’s low of 363.30 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

*. ENERGIES: October crude oil closed down $0.34 a barrel
at $96.83 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. A two-month-old price uptrend is still
in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance at the
August high of $98.29 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at $92.00.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $97.71 and
then at $98.29. First support is seen at today’s low of
$96.31 and then at this week’s low of $95.34. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

October heating oil closed up 238 points at $3.2095 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh 5.5-
month high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.3000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $3.0800. First resistance lies at today’s high
of $3.2180 and then at $3.2500. First support is seen at
today’s low of $3.1782 and then at $3.1500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

October (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 470 points at
$2.9965 today. Prices closed near the session low and did
hit a fresh contract high early on today. Prices also
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
If there is follow-through selling pressure on Thursday,
then a bearish “key reversal” down would be confirmed,
which would be an early technical clue that a market top is
in place. But right now the bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.1000. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at $2.8500. First resistance is seen at $3.0541 and
then at today’s contract high of $3.0796. First support is
seen at this week’s low of $2.9920 and then at $2.9750.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

October natural gas closed up 6.9 cents at $3.061 today.
Prices closed near the session high again today and hit
another fresh four-week high. Bulls have gained fresh
upside near-term technical momentum this week and have the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.135. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $2.80. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $3.068 and then at $3.135. First
support is seen at $3.00 and then at today’s low of $2.95.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 37 points at 1.2908 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high and hit another fresh four-month
high today. The Euro bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.3000. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid chart support at 1.2500. First resistance for
the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2948 and then at 1.3000.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.2827 and then at
this week’s low of 1.2768. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The December Japanese yen closed down 13 points at 1.2856
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on mild profit
taking after prices Tuesday hit a 13-week high. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the June high of 1.2920. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 1.2664. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.2880 and then
at 1.2900. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2836
and then at 1.2800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The December Swiss franc closed up 14 points at 1.0683
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh three-month high. The Swissy bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at the June high of 1.0730.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0400.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0720 and then
at 1.0730. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0647
and then at 1.0614. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The December Australian dollar closed up 20 points at
1.0366 today. Prices closed nearer the session low but did
hit a fresh three-week high early on. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
the August high of 1.0493. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 1.0077. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0417 and then at
1.0430. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0338 and
then at 1.0300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The December Canadian dollar closed down 33 points at
1.0218 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
saw profit taking after prices hit a 13-month high on
Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at 1.0400. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0100. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 1.0273 and then at 1.0300. First
support is seen at 1.0196 and then at 1.0147. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

The December British pound closed up 36 points at 1.6100
today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh four-
month high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend
on the daily chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.6200. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.5900. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.6126 and then at 1.6200. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.6059 and then at 1.6000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5.

The December U.S. dollar index closed down 9 points at
79.89 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another
fresh four-month low today. The bears have the solid near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 81.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 79.00. Next resistance lies at today’s
high of 80.15 and then at this week’s high of 80.59. First
support is seen at today’s low of 79.64 and then at 79.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 3/32 at 147 21/32
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
three-week low. Bulls still have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage but are fading and need to show
fresh power soon. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the August low of 145 23/32. The
next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 150 even. First
resistance is seen at 148 even and then at today’s high of
148 26/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 147
10/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 13.0 (32nds) at 132.12.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh three-week low close. Bulls still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but have
faded and need to show fresh power soon. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 133.08.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at 132.00.0. First resistance is
seen at 132.16.0 and then at 132.24.0. First support is
seen at last week’s low of 132.08.0 and then at 132.00.0.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today. Stock index bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Markets got a lift Wednesday
as the German Constitutional Court rejected arguments to
delay the implementation of the European Stability
Mechanism. That news, although not surprising, did boost
bullish sentiment in many markets, as the European stock
markets rallied along with the Euro currency. The closely
watched Italian and Spanish bond yields declined following
the court ruling, which is another step on the path to
stabilizing the European Union sovereign debt crisis. Now,
focus of the market place is squarely on the two-day
meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S.
Federal Reserve, which started Wednesday. The FOMC meeting
ends on Thursday afternoon with Fed Chairman Bernanke
holding a press conference. Last week’s downbeat U.S. jobs
report likely opened the door wider for a fresh U.S.
monetary stimulus announcement by the FOMC. The market
place has a slight bias that the Fed will announce QE3, or
some sort of fresh stimulus package, on Thursday. But even
if the Fed does not make a stimulus move on Thursday, the
majority of the market place believes the U.S. central bank
will act to ease monetary policy in the coming weeks.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 17.00 at 2,796.25.
Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 2,900.00. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at 2,700.00. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 2,823.75 and then at last week’s high of
2,836.25. First support is seen at today’s low of 2,775.25
and then at 2,766.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 8.90 at 1,439.50.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
four-year high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,500.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid support at 1,395.40. First
resistance is seen at 1,450.00 and then at 1,465.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1,428.80 and then at this
week’s low of 1,421.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 75 points at 13,368. Prices
closed near the session high and did hit another fresh
four-year high. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
13,500. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of 12,965. First resistance in the Dow lies
at 13,400 and then at 13,450. First support is seen at
today’s low of 13,320 and then at 13,265. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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