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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--September 20

Sep 21, 2012

Thursday Evening, September 20-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.97 at
$128.12 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a
fresh three-week low today. The solidly higher U.S. dollar
index did help to pressure the cattle market today. Cattle
bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage, but need to show fresh power soon. Prices are
still in a choppy, nearly three-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $131.15. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the August low of $126.72. First resistance is seen at
$128.50 and then at $129.00. First support is seen at
$128.00 and then at $127.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November feeder cattle closed down $0.77 at $147.77 today.
Prices closed near the session low. Feeder cattle bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a gentle two-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $150.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at $146.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $148.37 and then at
$149.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$147.30 and then at the September low of $146.90. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

December lean hogs closed down $0.47 at $74.25 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit another
fresh four-week high early on. The stronger U.S. dollar did
prompt some selling pressure in hogs today. Hog market
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, recent upside price action does hint that a market
bottom is in place. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at $75.15. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices
below solid technical support at $72.50. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $74.80 and then at $75.15. First
support is seen at today’s low of $73.85 and then at
$73.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were down 12 1/4 cents at
7.44 1/4 in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session low. The market was pressured in part from a
stronger U.S. dollar index today and harvest pressure.
Prices Tuesday hit a two-month low. The corn bulls have
faded badly recently. The corn bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been
trending lower for the past five weeks. Corn bulls' next
upside price objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $7.89 1/2. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $7.25.
First resistance for December corn is seen at $7.50 and
then at this week’s high of $7.59 1/4. First support is
seen at this week’s low of $7.39 and then at $7.30.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November soybeans were down 45 3/4 cents at $16.23 1/4 a
bushel in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session low, hit a fresh six-week low and were scoring a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The
stronger U.S. dollar index and harvest pressure helped to
sink the soybean market today. Soybean bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly
recently. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
November prices above psychological resistance at $17.00 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at $16.40 and
then at $16.50. First support is seen at today’s low of
$16.18 1/2 and then at $16.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

December soybean meal was down $15.50 at $484.80 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low, hit a
fresh six-week low and were scoring a bearish “outside day”
down on the daily bar chart today. The meal bulls have
faded badly recently. Meal bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $510.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$475.00. First resistance comes in at $490.00 and then at
$495.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $483.10
and then at $480.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December bean oil was down 119 points at 55.06 cents in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
scoring a big and bearish “outside day” down on the daily
bar chart. Bean oil bulls have faded badly recently. Bulls
and bears are now on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 57.80 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at 54.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at 55.50 cents and then at 56.00 cents. First support is
seen at this week’s low of 54.72 cents and then at 54.50
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

December Chicago SRW wheat was down 2 cents at $8.79 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. Given the
selling pressure in corn and soybeans today, wheat fared
pretty well. Trading remains choppy and sideways at higher
price levels. Wheat bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
psychological resistance at $9.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the August low of $8.57 1/4. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $8.93 3/4 and then at $9.00. First
support lies at today’s low of $8.69 and then at this
week’s low of $8.62 and then at $8.57 1/4. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat was down 1 1/4 cents at $9.08 3/4
in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid
choppy trading. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $9.25. The bears' next downside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the August low of $8.74 1/4. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.22 and then at
$9.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $8.98 1/2
and then at $8.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

December oats were down 3 1/4 cents at $3.72 1/2 today in
late trading. Prices were nearer the session low, hit a
fresh six-week low and were scoring a bearish “outside day”
down on the daily bar chart. Oats bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded badly
this week. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$3.57 3/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at this week’s high of $3.95 3/4. First support lies at
today’s low of $3.69 1/2 and then at $3.65. First
resistance is seen at $3.75 and then at $3.77 1/2.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 23 points at 19.92 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Sugar was able to make
gains today despite a bearish sugar production report out
of Brazil and a stronger U.S. dollar index. This does hint
that sugar has put in a market low. But at present sugar
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of 21.00 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 19.48 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 20.02 cents and
then at 20.25 cents. First support is seen at this week’s
low of 19.65 cents and then at 19.48 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5.

December coffee closed down 580 points at 168.60 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
two-week low. The stronger U.S. dollar index helped to
pressure coffee today. Coffee bears now have the slight
near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout
objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 183.70 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 160.00
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 170.00 cents and
then at 172.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 168.40 cents and then at 166.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5

December cocoa closed down $23 at $2,515 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh four-
week low. The stronger U.S. dollar index helped to pressure
cocoa today. Cocoa bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but are now fading a bit. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the September high of $2,707. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $2,500. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,555 and then at
$2,572. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,506 and
then at $2,500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

December cotton closed down 114 points at 75.27 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
stronger U.S. dollar index helped to pressure cotton today.
Cotton bulls still have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a gentle 3.5-month old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the August high of 77.49 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 71.59 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of 76.77 cents and then at 77.49 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 75.05 cents and then at 74.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November orange juice closed down 90 points at $1.2570
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking. Gains in FCOJ were limited by the solid gains in
the U.S. dollar index today. FCOJ bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Traders will
continue to watch for any fresh storms brewing in the
Atlantic. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical
resistance at $1.3500. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at $1.2000. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1.2790 and then at $1.2890. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1.2475 and then at
$1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

November lumber futures closed up $1.50 at $274.10 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and saw tepid short covering
in a bear market. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $260.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$287.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$275.60 and then at $277.50. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $272.60 and then at last week’s low of
$270.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $0.40 an ounce
at $1,771.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and saw mild profit taking and chart consolidation.
Prices Wednesday hit a 6.5-month high. Gains in gold were
limited by solid gains in the U.S. dollar index today. The
gold market bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. This week’s pause at higher price
levels is not bearish. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the 2012 high of $1,800.90. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$1,720.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$1,781.80 and then at $1,790.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,757.70 and then at this week’s low of
$1,753.20. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0

December silver futures closed up $0.132 an ounce at $34.72
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Silver
bulls are in firm near-term technical command. Prices are
in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $36.00 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $32.51. First resistance is seen at this week’s high
of $35.10 and then at $35.50. Next support is seen at
$34.32 and then at $34.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 500 points at 376.40 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw profit
taking from recent gains. A stronger U.S. dollar index
today also lent to selling pressure in copper. Prices
Wednesday hit a 4.5-month high. Copper bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 386.45
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
364.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 380.00 cents and
then at this week’s high of 383.95 cents. First support is
seen at 375.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 372.70
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed up $0.31 a barrel at
$92.61 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
hit another fresh six-week low early on. Short covering was
seen today. The bulls have faded badly this week as a 2.5-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart was negated
Wednesday. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above major psychological resistance at $100.00 a
barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $90.00. First resistance
is seen at $93.00 and then at $94.00. First support is seen
at $92.00 and then at today’s low of $90.96. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

November heating oil closed up 526 points at $3.0950 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit another
fresh six-week low early on. Bulls have faded this week. A
10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated
this week. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $3.2633. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $2.9500. First resistance lies at $3.1250 and
then at $3.1500. First support is seen at $3.0500 and then
at today’s low of $3.0227. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 554 points at
$2.7835 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and saw short covering. A 2.5-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart has been negated this week. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$3.9527. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at $2.6100. First
resistance is seen at $2.8000 and then at $2.8250. First
support is seen at $2.7500 and then at $2.7250. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

November natural gas closed up 3.4 cents at $2.979 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have
faded recently and are on a level near-term technical
playing field with the bears. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of $3.199.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the August
low of $2.79. First resistance is seen at $3.00 and then at
$3.05. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.923 and
then at $2.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 94 points at 1.2980 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Profit taking was featured.
The Euro bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a two-month-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.3183. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at last week’s low
of 1.2768. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3000 and
then at today’s high of 1.3070. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.2930 and then at 1.2900. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0

The December Japanese yen closed up 17 points at 1.2783
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at last week’s high of 1.2977. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of 1.2631. First
resistance is seen at 1.2800 and then at today’s high of
1.2826. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2754 and
then at 1.2700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The December Swiss franc closed down 63 points at 1.0733
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking. The Swissy bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.0900. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen
at 1.0800 and then at week’s high of 1.0838 and then at
1.0850. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0702 and
then at 1.0650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The December Australian dollar closed down 50 points at
1.0364 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Mild profit taking was featured. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at 1.0600. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 1.0234. First
resistance is seen at 1.0415 and then at this week’s high
of 1.0474. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0290
and then at 1.0234. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The December Canadian dollar closed down 22 points at
1.0221 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0400. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0140.
First resistance is seen at 1.0262 and then at this week’s
high of 1.0294. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.0167 and then at 1.0140. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The December British pound closed down 18 points at 1.6206
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw mild
profit taking today. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-
old uptrend on the daily chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.6400. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.6000. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of 1.6268 and then at 1.6300. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.6159 and then at 1.6100. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 36 points at 79.49
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Short covering
in a bear market was featured. The bears still have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 80.60. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 78.00. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 79.75 and then at 80.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 79.13 and then at
last week’s low of 78.72. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 7/32 at 146 21/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw more
short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a fresh
four-month low on Monday. Prices are still in a choppy two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 144 even.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 148
even. First resistance is seen at 147 even and then at
today’s high of 147 18/32. First support is seen at today’s
low of 146 14/32 and then at 146 even. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 1.0 (32nds) at 132.13.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. More
short covering and bargain hunting were featured. Bulls
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 133.26.5. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
August low of 131.02.5. First resistance is seen at
132.18.0 and then at today’s high of 132.28.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 132.11.0 and then at
132.02.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
narrowly mixed again today in more quiet trading. Stock
index bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The much-anticipated HSBC China
manufacturing PMI was released Thursday and came in at a
reading of 47.8 in the latest month, which was the eleventh
straight month of contraction in China’s manufacturing
sector. Asian stock markets fell on the China news, while
raw commodity markets, including gold and silver, also saw
some selling pressure due to the weak China data. The
market place is also uneasy regarding a serious territorial
dispute between China and Japan regarding ownership of a
small chain of islands. A closely watched Spanish
government debt auction went off well Thursday amid good
investor demand. The recent pledge by the European Central
Bank to backstop the troubled EU nations’ debt auctions has
injected some stability into the EU financial system.
However, offsetting that positive EU news was more
generally dour economic data coming out of Europe Thursday.
The Chinese premiere on Thursday visited EU leaders and
told them his country will continue to buy European Union
government bonds.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 2.00 at 2,855.50.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,900.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 2,742.75. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 2,866.25 and then
at 2,875.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
2,837.25 and then at 2,820.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 0.60 at 1,453.80.
Prices closed near the session high today in more quiet
trading. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1,500.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at 1,395.40. First resistance is
seen at last week’s high of 1,467.50 and then at 1,475.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1,443.80 and then
at 1,428.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 19 points at 13,516. Prices
closed near the session high. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,750. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 12,965. First
resistance in the Dow lies at this week’s high of 13,555
and then at last week’s high of 13,570. First support is
seen at today’s low of 13,432 and then at 13,400. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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