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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--September 20

Sep 21, 2011

 

Tuesday Evening, September 20--Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

 


http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp


Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $1.20 at $119.15 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering and bargain hunting. The key "outside markets" were mildly bullish for cattle today as the U.S. dollar index was slightly lower, while crude oil and stock index futures prices were firmer. The cattle bulls have regained the slight near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $121.22. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $115.35. First resistance is seen at today's high of $119.25 and then at $119.50. First support is seen at $118.50 and then at today's low of $118.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November feeder cattle closed up $1.22 at $139.77 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the August high of $141.70. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $135.82. First resistance is seen at $140.00 and then at last week's high of $140.42. First support is seen at $139.00 and then at today's low of $138.77. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

December lean hogs closed up $1.17 at $83.00 today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw short covering. The key "outside markets" were mildly bullish for hogs today as the U.S. dollar index was slightly lower, while crude oil and stock index futures prices were firmer. The September low of $80.55 is very strong support. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $84.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $80.55. First resistance is seen at $83.50 and then at $84.00. First support is seen at $82.50 and then at today's low of $82.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 1 3/4 cents at $6.90 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Corn bulls have faded badly recently and need to show more power soon. Some near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently.

However, the supply and demand fundamentals for corn are extremely bullish and cannot be ignored.

Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $7.25. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $6.76 1/2. First resistance for December corn is seen at $7.00 and then at today's high of $7.04 1/2. First support is seen at $6.85 and then at $6.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

November soybeans closed up 1 1/2 cents at $13.37 1/2 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Tepid short covering was featured. Some near-term chart damage has occurred recently. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above solid technical resistance at $13.75 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $13.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $13.50 1/4 and then at this week's high of $13.57 1/2. First support is seen at today's low of $13.35 1/4 and then at this week's low of $13.26. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December soybean meal closed up $1.80 at $350.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have faded badly and near-term technical damage has been inflicted. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above technical resistance at $360.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $341.30. First resistance comes in at today's high of $352.90 and then at $355.00. First support is seen at today's low of $349.60 and then at this week's low of $345.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December bean oil closed down 21 points at 55.63 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh four-week low close. Bean oil bears have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 57.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 54.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 56.00 cents and then at today's high of 56.29 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 55.46 cents and then at 55.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 1 3/4 cents at $6.74 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, the wheat market is still short-term oversold and due for at least a corrective bounce soon. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above psychological resistance at $7.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $6.39. First resistance is seen at $6.80 and then at this week's high of $6.91 1/4. First support lies at this week's low of $6.67 and then at $6.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 1 3/4 cents at $7.74 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance at $8.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $7.30 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $7.75 and then at $7.82 1/2. First support is seen at this week's low of $7.60 3/4 and then at $7.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

December oats closed up 3 1/2 cents at $3.49 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the near-term technical advantage, but bulls did gain a bit of upside momentum today. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at the September low of $3.38. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.65. First support lies at $3.45 and then at today's low of $3.43 1/2. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.53 3/4 and then at $3.56. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed down 23 points at 27.60 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh six-week low. Some near-term chart damage has occurred recently. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 30.21 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the August low of 26.38 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 28.14 cents and then at 28.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 27.25 cents and then at 27.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December coffee closed down 165 points at 260.40 cents. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Some near-term chart damage has occurred recently. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 274.75 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 250.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 262.50 cents and then at 265.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 259.50 cents and then at last week's low of 255.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December cocoa closed up $15 at $2,731 a ton. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,900. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,600. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,753 and then at this week's high of $2,781. First support is seen at today's low of $2,716 and then at this week's low of $2,691. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

December cotton closed down 11 points at 105.41 cents today. Prices hit another fresh two-week low today as the bulls have faded. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the September high of 115.47 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push prices below solid technical support at 101.74 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 103.86 and then at 102.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 107.30 cents and then at 110.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

November orange juice closed up 655 points at $1.6970 today. Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a fresh six-week high close. Bulls gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum today. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $1.7090. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at last week's low of $1.5905. First resistance is seen at $1.7090 and then at $1.7250. First support is seen at $1.6750 and then at $1.6500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

November lumber futures closed up $3.80 at $245.00 today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A V-Top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $230.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $250.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $247.00 and then at $250.00. First support is seen at $242.50 and then at this week's low of $239.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up 30.00 an ounce at $1,809.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key "outside markets" were mildly bullish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was slightly lower while crude oil prices were modestly higher. Trading has turned very choppy. This type of "backing and filling" action on the charts is not surprising. The gold market bulls still have the overall near-term and longer-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $1,865.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $1,765.40. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,814.30 and then at 1,825.00. First support is seen at $1,800.00 and then at $1,775.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

December silver futures closed up $0.932 an ounce at $40.095 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The key "outside markets" were mildly bullish for silver today as the U.S. dollar index was slightly lower while crude oil prices were modestly higher. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above strong technical resistance at last week's high of $41.60 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $38.81. First resistance is seen at today's high of $40.375 and then at this week's high of $40.90. Next support is seen at $39.50 and then at today's low of $39.23. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 555 points 372.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session low again today and hit another fresh 9.5-month low. Serious near-term chart damage has occurred recently. Copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of 391.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at November 2010 low of 355.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 375.00 cents and then at 377.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 372.35 cents and then at 370.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed up $0.68 a barrel at $86.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key "outside markets" were mildly bullish for crude today as the U.S. dollar index was slightly lower and U.S. stock index futures prices were firmer. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $90.60 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the September low of $83.47. First resistance is seen at $87.00 and then at today's high of $87.68. First support is seen at $86.00 and then at this week's low of $84.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

November heating oil closed up 117 points at $2.9660 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the late-August high of $3.0999. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at last week's low of $2.9120. First resistance lies at $3.00 and then at this week's high of $3.0139. First support is seen at this week's low of $2.9389 and then at $2.9000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 76 points at $2.6827. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $2.8669. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at $2.5870. First resistance is seen at $2.7000 and then at today's high of $2.7152. First support is seen at last week's low of $2.6630 and then at $2.6500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

November natural gas closed down 4.7 cents at $3.885 today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh contract low close. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $3.75. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.964 and then at $4.00. First support is seen at the contract low of $3.865 and then at $3.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro currency closed up 8 points at 1.3666 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 1.3925. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at last week's low of 1.3501. First resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of 1.3738 and then at 1.3800. Next support is seen at 1.3600 and then at this week's low of 1.3577. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

The December Japanese yen closed up 15 points at 1.3104 today. Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a fresh four-week high close. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of 1.3180. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 1.2860. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 1.3120 and then at 1.3180. First support is seen at today's low of 1.3044 and then at this week's low of 1.3003. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The December Swiss franc closed down 87 points at 1.1273 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1750. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 1.1234. First resistance is seen at 1.1350 and then at today's high of 1.1407. First support is seen at 1.1234 and then at 1.1200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The December Australian dollar closed up 73 points at 1.0141 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh five-week low early on. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded recently. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0300. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 1.0205 and then at 1.0285. Next support is seen at today's low of 1.0041 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The December Canadian dollar closed down 20 points at 1.0051 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Trading has been choppy and bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at last week's high of 1.0204. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of .9951. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.0100 and then at 1.0150. First support is seen at today's low of 1.0031 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The December British pound closed up 35 points at 1.5713 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. Serious chart damage has been inflicted recently. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage as prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.5900. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.5500. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 1.5741 and then at 1.5800. First support is seen at this week's low of 1.5618 and then at 1.5550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed down 29 points at 77.61 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 78.29. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 76.00. Next resistance lies at today's high of 77.96 and then at this week's high of 78.06. First support is seen at today's low of 77.32 and then at 77.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 6/32 at 141 17/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bond market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are still no early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 137 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 143 even. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 141 31 and then at 142 16/32. First support is seen at 141 even and then at today's low of 140 21/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 0.5 (32nds) at 130.17.0 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 132.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 128.11.5. First resistance is seen at today's high of 130.23.5 and then at the contract high of 131.04.0. First support is seen at today's low of 130.05.5 and then at this week's low of 129.27.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today but well off their session high, as some late news surfaced that Greece and its creditors may not be close to agreement on Greece receiving its next tranche of money. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum but need to show more power soon to keep it.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 5.50 at 2,295.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh seven-week high early on. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 2,400.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 2,108.25. First resistance is seen at today's high of 2,332.50 and then at 2,350.00. First support is seen at today's low of 2,283.75 and then at this week's low of 2,254.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 1.10 at 1,196.70. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,250.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of 1,123.90. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 1,213.50 and then at 1,229.50. First support is seen at this week's low of 1,186.80 and then at 1,175.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The Dow futures closed down 12 points at 11,335 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 11,700. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 10,745. First resistance in the Dow lies at 11,400 and then at today's high of 11,475. First support is seen at 11,300 and then at 11,250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff


 

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