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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--September 4

Sep 05, 2012

Tuesday Evening, September 4-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed up $0.15 at
$126.17 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and saw some more short covering. Prices last Friday did
close at a bullish weekly high close. Gains today were
limited by bearish outside markets—firmer U.S. dollar index
and weaker crude oil prices. Bulls still have some upside
technical momentum and are on a level near-term playing
field with the bears. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the August high of $127.22. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the August
low of $123.40. First resistance is seen at $126.45 and
then at $127.00. First support is seen at $125.50 and then
at $125.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

October feeder cattle closed up $0.27 at $146.95 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading.
Prices did hit a fresh seven-week high today. Feeder cattle
bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
150.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $144.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $147.40 and then at $148.00. First support is seen
at $146.50 and then at $146.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

October lean hogs closed up $0.02 at $74.20 today. Prices
closed near the session high today. Tepid short covering in
a bear market was featured today. Hog bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, my bias is
that the downside is limited for hog futures at present
price levels. The next upside price breakout objective for
the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $75.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at
last week’s high of $74.50 and then at $75.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $73.35 and then at
$73.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were up 1 cents at $8.00
3/4 in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session
low. Gains were limited by bearish outside markets today—
firmer U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices—and by
a poor weekly USDA inspections report. However, there was a
fresh USDA export sale of corn to Japan today. Indeed,
focus in the corn market is less on the supply and more on
what record high prices have done to demand for corn. The
corn bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the contract high of $8.49. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the last “reaction
low” on the daily chart, at $7.86. First resistance for
December corn is seen at $8.10 and then at today’s high of
$8.15. First support is last week’s low of $7.93 1/4 and
then at $7.86. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

November soybeans were up 6 cents at $17.62 1/2 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
hit a fresh contract and all-time high today. Soybean bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid
still-strong worldwide demand for beans. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing November prices above psychological
resistance at $18.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$17.01. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
$17.71 1/4 and then at today’s contract high of $17.89.
First support is seen at $17.50 and then at $17.35 1/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

December soybean meal was down $0.10 at $533.30 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and did
hit a fresh contract high today. Meal bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $550.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$510.00. First resistance comes in at today’s contract high
of $541.80 and then at $545.00. First support is seen at
$530.00 and then at $525.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

December bean oil was up 76 points at 57.84 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range and hit a fresh
12-month high today. Bean oil bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September 2011 high of 58.90 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last year’s
low of 55.98 cents. First resistance is seen at 58.00 cents
and then at today’s high of 58.60 cents. First support is
seen at 57.50 cents and then at today’s low of 57.26 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

December Chicago SRW wheat was down 6 cents at $8.83 in
late trading today. Prices were near the session low on
some profit taking. Wheat bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Still, the choppiness and sideways
trading at higher price levels, amid some higher
volatility, is a warning signal of a topping process. Wheat
bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at
$9.26 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the August
low of $8.57 1/4. First resistance is seen at $9.00 and
then at last week’s high of $9.14 1/2. First support lies
at today’s low of $8.81 and then at last week’s low of
$8.71 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat was down 5 3/4 cents at $9.00 1/4
in late trading today. Prices were near the session low on
some profit taking. The bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $9.36 1/2. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the August low of $8.74 1/4.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.19 and then
at last week’s high of $9.31. First support is seen at last
week’s low of $8.87 3/4 and then at $8.74 1/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

December oats were down 1 1/2 cents at $3.96 today in late
trading. Prices were near mid-range and hit a fresh
contract high early on today. Oats bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $3.75. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at today’s contract high
of $4.14. First support lies at $3.92 and then at $3.90.
First resistance is seen at $4.00 and then at $4.02.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed down 38 points at 19.40
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a
fresh three-month low today. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for the sugar market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower. Sugar
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 20.39 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the June low of 19.24 cents. First
resistance is seen at 19.50 cents and then at 19.75 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 19.31 cents and
then at 19.24 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December coffee closed up 60 points at 165.35 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Tepid short covering
in a bear market was featured. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for the coffee market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower.
Coffee bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at
170.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the August low of 160.25 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 167.90 cents and then
at last week’s high of 169.10 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 164.50 cents and then at last week’s low
of 162.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

December cocoa closed down $41 at $2,569 a ton. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw some profit-taking
pressure from recent gains. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for the cocoa market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower. Prices
Friday hit a 9.5-month high. Cocoa bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$2,700. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,500. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $2,594 and then at $2,600. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2,531 and then at $2,500. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5

December cotton closed down 158 points at 75.68 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the cotton market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices
were lower. Cotton bulls still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a three-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the August high of
77.49 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for
the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 73.30 cents. First resistance is seen
at 77.07 cents and then at the August high of 77.49 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 75.27 cents and
then at 74.72 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November orange juice closed up 235 points at $1.2130
today. Prices closed near the session high today on more
short covering and bargain hunting. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. Traders will continue to watch
for any fresh storms brewing in the Atlantic. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the August high of $1.2275. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$1.1015. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1.2150 and then at $1.2275. First support is seen at
$1.2000 and then at $1.1800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

November lumber futures closed down $4.10 at $278.90 today.
Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh five-
week low today. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $276.00. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $296.60. First resistance is seen at $282.00 and then at
today’s high of $284.00. First support is seen at today’s
low of $278.40 and then at $276.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $9.60 an ounce
at $1,697.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and hit a fresh five-month high. Bulls had a big day
last Friday and have now gained solid technical power.
Prices Friday scored a big and bullish “outside day” up on
the daily bar chart, closed at a bullish weekly and monthly
high close--and saw a big upside “breakout” from a bull
flag pattern that had formed on the daily chart. Gold
prices are also in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The gold market bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term
downside price objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at last Friday’s low of $1,647.10. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,701.60 and then at
$1,704.50. First support is seen at the overnight low of
$1,687.60 and then at $1,675.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
7.5

December silver futures closed up $0.918 an ounce at
$32.355 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh 4.5-month high. Bulls are in strong near-
term technical command. Prices Friday closed at a bullish
weekly and monthly high close--and saw a big upside
“breakout” from a bullish pennant pattern that had formed
on the daily chart. Prices are also in a six-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $32.50 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $30.265.
First resistance is seen at $32.50 and then at $32.75. Next
support is seen at $32.00 and then at today’s low of
$31.575. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 125 points at 346.95 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the copper market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
lower. Copper bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of 355.65 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the August
low of 328.85 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 350.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 351.70
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 343.25 cents
and then at last week’s low of 340.75 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: October crude oil closed down $0.89 a barrel
at $95.57 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
on profit taking and amid a firmer U.S. dollar index. Crude
oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. A two-month-old price uptrend is still in place
on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above major psychological resistance at $100.00 a
barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $92.00. First resistance
is seen at $96.00 and then at $97.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $94.97 and then at $94.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

October heating oil closed down 225 points at $3.1578
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after
hitting a fresh five-week high early on. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.2500. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.0800. First resistance
lies at $3.2000 and then at today’s high of $3.2160. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.1445 and then at
$3.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

October (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 119 points at
$2.9599 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and saw
mild profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the March high of $3.0402.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at $2.8000. First resistance is
seen at $2.9800 and then at last week’s high of $3.0098.
First support is seen at $2.9250 and then at $2.9000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

October natural gas closed up 5.1 cents at $2.85 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more
short covering. Bears still have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $2.50. First resistance is seen
at $2.91 and then at $2.95. First support is seen at $2.80
and then at today’s low of $2.762. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 13 points at 1.2583 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and saw some more mild
profit taking. The Euro bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.2700. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.2400. First
resistance for the Euro lies at last week’s high of 1.2652
and then at 1.2700. Next support is seen at 1.2550 and then
at 1.2500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The December Japanese yen closed down 18 points at 1.2760
today. Prices closed near the session low today on some
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
July high of 1.2851. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the August low of 1.2565. First resistance is seen at
last week’s high of 1.2804 and then at 1.2850. First
support is seen at last week’s low of 1.2698 and then at
1.2675. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The December Swiss franc closed down 15 points at 1.0486
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and saw some
more profit taking. The Swissy bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.0600. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0250. First resistance is seen
at last week’s high of 1.0546 and then at 1.0600. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0475 and then at
1.0435. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The December Australian dollar closed down 98 points at
1.0130 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit
a fresh five-week low today. Bulls have lost their near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at last week’s high of 1.0301. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at 1.0000. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 1.0198 and then at 1.0250. Next
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0121 and then at
1.0095. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The December Canadian dollar closed down 3 points at 1.0120
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on some mild
profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the April high of 1.0136. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 1.0026. First resistance
is seen at 1.0136 and then at 1.0150. First support is seen
at 1.0100 and then at 1.0050. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The December British pound closed down 2 points at 1.5876
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw mild
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend
on the daily chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.6000. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at last week’s low of 1.5747. First resistance is
seen at the August high of 1.5907 and then at 1.6000. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.5850 and then at
1.5800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 8 points at 81.62
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
tepid short covering. The bears still have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 83.25. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 81.00. Next resistance lies at 82.00
and then at last week’s high of 82.13. First support is
seen at last week’s low of 81.30 and then at 81.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 5/32 at 151 8/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low on some mild profit
taking. Prices did hit a fresh four-week high early on
today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for
the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 148 even. The next upside technical objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the July contract high of 154 17/32. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 151 29/32 and then at
152 16/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 150
30/32 and then at 150 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 9.0 (32nds) at 133.14.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking. Prices hit a fresh four-week high on Friday. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at the July contract
high of 134.18.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 132.100.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 133.26.5 and then at 134.00.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 133.11.0 and then at
133.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
narrowly mixed today. Stock index bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Following last
Friday’s commodity and stock market bullish comments from
Bernanke at in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, bulls are presently
confident heading into the historically difficult months of
September and October. It now appears more likely the Fed
will implement another round of quantitative easing of U.S.
monetary policy. The eyes of the market place are now
focused on later this week, when the monthly meeting of the
European Central Bank takes place on Thursday. It’s
expected the ECB will announce a fresh EU monetary stimulus
plan, which would also likely be at least initially
commodity and stock market bullish. ECB President Mario
Draghi said overnight the central bank’s purchase of short-
dated government bonds is within the bank’s mandate. On
Friday the important U.S. jobs report is released. Asian
markets were lower overnight following more downbeat
economic news coming out of China. The HSBC’s China
purchasing managers index in August fell to its lowest
level since 2009. European markets were little changed
ahead of the ECB meeting Thursday. Spanish and Italian bond
yields were lower overnight, on some building optimism the
EU debt crisis may at least be stabilizing a bit. In other
overnight news, European Union consumer price inflation in
July rose at a higher rate than expected, at a 1.8% annual
rate. However, that figure is still low and will not likely
have any effect on European Central Bank monetary policy
decisions.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 3.50 at 2,774.50.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the August high of 2,802.50. The bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at 2,650.00. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 2,782.75 and then at last week’s
high of 2,795.75. First support is seen at today’s low of
2,742.75 and then at 2,725.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 0.90 at 1,406.00.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the August high of 1,424.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the August low of 1,350.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,409.50 and
then at last week’s high of 1,415.90. First support is seen
at today’s low of 1,394.80 and then at 1,375.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed down 29 points at 13,050 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the August high of
13,305. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the August
low of 12,730. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s
high of 13,084 and then at 13,125. First support is seen at
13,000 and then at today’s low of 12,965. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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