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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report

Oct 13, 2011

Wednesday Evening, October 12-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.40 at
$121.22 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
mild profit-taking pressure. The overall supply and demand
fundamentals in the cash cattle market remain bullish.
Cattle bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $122.40. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
this week’s low of $120.30. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $121.80 and then at $122.40. First support
is seen at $121.00 and then at today’s low of $120.60.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

November feeder cattle closed up $0.20 at $143.32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range again today in quieter
trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for
the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
technical resistance at the contract high of $145.90. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $140.20. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of $144.10 and then at last week’s high of
$144.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $143.00
and then at $142.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

December lean hogs closed up $0.67 at $87.45 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. The market was
boosted in part by a sharply lower U.S. dollar index today.
Hog bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, market tops were put in place in recent months,
near last week’s high. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above
solid chart resistance at $88.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below
solid technical support at last week's low of $86.45. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $87.70 and then at
$88.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $87.00 and
then at this week’s low of $86.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 4 1/4 cents at
$6.40 3/4 today. Prices hit a fresh two-week high today and
then backed off and closed near mid-range. Wednesday
morning’s USDA supply and demand report was deemed overall
bearish for the corn market. However, a big U.S. corn
purchase by China Wednesday offset the bearish impact of
the USDA report. The corn bulls have gained fresh upside
near-term technical momentum following recent gains. It
does appear a harvest low is in place. Corn bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $6.80. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below psychological support at $6.00.
First resistance for December corn is seen at $6.45 and
then at $6.50. First support is seen at $6.35 and then at
today’s low of $6.28 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November soybeans closed up 4 cents at $12.39 1/2 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today on
more short covering and bargain-hunting buying. Today’s
USDA supply and demand report was deemed mildly bullish for
soybeans. My bias is that prices have put in a harvest low.
Bulls have regained some upside near-term technical
momentum. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
November prices above solid technical resistance at $12.80
a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the October low of $11.52. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.46 3/4 and then
at $12.50. First support is seen at $12.30 and then at
$12.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December soybean meal closed up $2.10 at $322.70 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh two-
week high today, on more short covering and bargain-hunting
buying interest. Bulls have gained upside momentum and my
bias is that prices have put in a harvest low. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above technical resistance at $330.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$323.90 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at
$320.50 and then at $317.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December bean oil closed down 32 points at 51.86 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw a
corrective pullback from big gains scored Tuesday. Bulls
have regained some fresh upside near-term technical
momentum. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 54.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 52.00 cents and then at
this week’s high of 52.61 cents. First support is seen at
51.50 cents and then at today’s low of 51.16. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 34 cents at $6.26
3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
gave back most of Tuesday’s big gains. Wednesday morning’s
monthly USDA supply and demand report was deemed bearish
for wheat. Wheat bears have the near-term technical
advantage and reaffirmed that notion today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of $6.65 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below major psychological support at
$6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.40 and then at $6.50.
First support lies at today’s low of $6.20 and then at
$6.11. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed down 18 3/4 cents at $7.11
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $7.50. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the October
low of $6.79. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$7.18 and then at $7.25. First support is seen at $7.00 and
then at today’s low of $6.96. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

December oats closed up 6 cents at $3.45 today. Prices
closed near the session high and hit another fresh three-
week high. Bulls have gained fresh upside near-term
technical momentum this week to suggest a market low is in
place. Short covering and bargain hunting were seen again
today. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at
$3.25. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $3.50. First support lies at $3.40 and then at $3.35.
First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.45 3/4 and
then at $3.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 1 point at 25.93 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at 27.50 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the
September low of 24.01 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 26.35 cents and then at this week’s high of
26.63 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 25.72
cents and then at this week’s low of 25.36 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

December coffee closed up 780 points at 231.20 cents.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering and bargain hunting buying. The lower U.S. dollar
index today helped to boost coffee. Still, serious near-
term chart damage has occurred in coffee recently. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 246.55 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week's
low of 219.80 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 231.75 cents and then at 235.00 cents.
First support is seen at 230.00 cents and then at 227.50
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

December cocoa closed up $42 at $2,646 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today. Short covering in a bear
market was featured. The lower U.S. dollar index today
helped to boost cocoa. The cocoa bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,750.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $2,540. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2,674 and then at this week’s high of
$2,703. First support is seen at $2,600 and then at this
week’s low of $2,580. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December cotton closed down 296 points at 100.51 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and were
pressured by a bearish USDA report. The recent “collapse in
volatility” in the cotton market made me suspect a bigger
price move was on the horizon, and we got it today. Cotton
bulls and bears are still on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 105.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push prices
below solid technical support at the September low of 98.21
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 99.67 and
then at 98.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 102.00
cents and then at 103.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

November orange juice closed up 225 points at $1.6370
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
closed at a fresh three-week high close. More short
covering and bargain hunting buying were featured today.
Bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum
this week. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the September high of $1.7090. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at this week’s low of $1.5470. First resistance is seen at
$1.6500 and then at this week’s high of $1.6640. First
support is seen at $1.6200 and then at today’s low of
$1.5900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

November lumber futures closed down $3.50 at $222.00 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. While the bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage, recent
price action suggests a near-term market low is in place.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the contract low of $211.10. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$235.00. First resistance is seen at $225.00 and then at
last week’s high of $227.40 and then at $230.00. First
support is seen at $220.00 and then at today's low of
$216.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $20.20 an ounce
at $1,681.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and hit another fresh three-week high. Bulls have
gained good upside near-term technical momentum recently
and have regained the slight near-term technical advantage.
Prices have been trending higher on the daily chart for
three weeks. A sharply lower U.S. dollar index helped to
boost gold today. Bulls' next upside technical objective is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$1,705.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below psychological support at $1,600.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,693.90 and
then at $1,705.40. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,662.00 and then at $1,650.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

December silver futures closed up $0.807 an ounce at
$32.805 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh three-week high. The silver market was
boosted by the sharply lower U.S. dollar index today.
Silver bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is
producing a close above strong technical resistance at
$33.585 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $28.435. First
resistance is seen at today's high of $33.10 and then at
$33.585. Next support is seen at $32.50 and then at $32.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 965 points 338.70 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh two-week high. More short covering was featured and
the market was also boosted by a sharply lower U.S. dollar
index. Copper bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage as a nine-week-old downtrend is still
in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 350.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 341.15 cents and then
at 345.00 cents. First support is seen at 335.00 cents and
then at 330.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed down $0.31 a barrel
at $85.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Losses
were limited by a sharply lower U.S. dollar index today.
Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. Prices
have rallied around $10.00 a barrel from last week’s low.
The bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $88.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $80.00. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $86.64 and then
at $87.50. First support is seen at $85.00 and then at
today’s low of $84.52. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

November heating oil closed up 261 points at $2.9296 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high. More short covering and bargain-hunting
buying were featured today. Bulls have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $2.8000. First resistance lies at today’s high
of $2.9549 and then at $3.0000. First support is seen at
$2.9000 and then at today’s low of $2.8859. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 20 points at
$2.7456. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
three-week high early on. Bulls have gained some upside
momentum as a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern has
formed on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.8000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
this week’s low of $2.6497. First resistance is seen at
today's high of $2.7713 and then at $2.8000. First support
is seen at today’s low of $2.7256 and then at $2.7000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

November natural gas closed down 12.3 cents at $3.493
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.926. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
$3.40. First resistance is seen at $3.60 and then at
today’s high of $3.63. First support is seen at the
contract low of $3.455 and then at $3.40. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 137 points at 1.3790 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh four-
week high. The bulls are gaining good upside near-term
technical momentum to suggest that a near-term market low
is in place. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.3925. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at 1.3500. First resistance for the
Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3825 and then at 1.3900.
Next support is seen at 1.3700 and then at 1.3650.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The December Japanese yen closed down 110 points at 1.2949
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh five-week low. Prices also scored a big and bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart and some fresh
near-term chart damage was inflicted today. The recent
“collapse in volatility” in the yen made me suspect a
bigger price move was on the horizon, and we got it today. 
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.310. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 1.2860. First
resistance is seen at 1.3000 and then at 1.3050. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.2912 and then at
1.2860. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The December Swiss franc closed up 157 points at 1.1195
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.1400. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 1.0749. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1227 and then at
1.1300. First support is seen at 1.1100 and then at 1.1050.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The December Australian dollar closed up 175 points at
1.0078 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today,
hit a fresh three-week high and scored a bullish “outside
day” up on the daily bar chart. Bulls now have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at 1.0300. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at this week’s low of .9671. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0123 and then at
1.0200. Next support is seen at 1.0000 and then at .9900.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The December Canadian dollar closed up 132 points at .9825
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh three-week high. Bulls have gained upside near-term
technical momentum recently. Bears do still have the slight
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at 1.0000. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of .9611. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of .9853 and then at
.9900. First support is seen at .9750 and then at .9700.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The December British pound closed up 173 points at 1.5751
today. Prices closed nearer the session high, hit a fresh
three-week high and scored a big and bullish “outside day”
up on the daily bar chart. Recent price action suggests a
near-term market low is in place. The bulls have gained
fresh upside near-term technical momentum recently. Bears
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
1.6000. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of
1.5517. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5789
and then at 1.5900. First support is seen at 1.5700 and
then at 1.5600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed down 65 points at
77.22 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and hit a fresh three-week low. Significant near-term
chart damage has occurred recently to now suggest a near-
term market top is in place. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 80.43. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 76.58. Next
resistance lies at 77.50 and then at 78.00. First support
is seen at today’s low of 77.11 and then at 77.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 full point at 138 28/32
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh five-week low. Bulls have faded recently and need to
show fresh power soon. But the bond market bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 136 even.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 142
even. First resistance is seen at 139 even and then at 140
even. First support is seen at today's low of 137 30/32 and
then at 137 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 6.5 (32nds) at 128.01.0
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
nine-week low early on. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. However, they have faded and need
to show fresh power soon. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 130.00.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 127.00.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 128.15.5 and then at 129.00.0. First
support is seen at today's low of 127.16.5 and then at
127.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today. Bulls are gaining upside near-term technical
momentum to suggest that market lows are in place and that
prices can trend sideways to higher into the end of the
year.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 8.00 at 2,296.50
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh three-week high. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
September high of 2,332.50. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the October low of 2,035.75. First resistance is
seen at 2,332.50 and then at 2,350.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of 2,274.50 and then at 2,262.25.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 8.60 at 1,198.20.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh six-week
high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1,229.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at last week's low of 1,068.50.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,215.50 and
then at 1,229.50. First support is seen at today’s low of
1,180.80 and then at this week’s low of 1,156.80. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

The Dow futures closed up 86 points at 11,416 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh six-
week high early on. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the September high of 11,700. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 10,500. First resistance in the Dow
lies at 11,500 and then at today’s high of 11,555. First
support is seen at today’s low of 11,390 and then at
11,300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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