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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 16

Apr 16, 2012

Monday, April 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Traders went home last Friday afternoon with worries about
what the new week would hold regarding the European Union
sovereign debt situation and the United Nations discussion
with Iran regarding its nuclear program. As the new trading
week gets under way it appears Friday’s worries have been
somewhat assuaged, as the U.S. stock indexes are slightly
higher, but the commodity markets are seeing general
selling pressure. Three main macro fundamentals traders
will focus on this week are the Iran-U.N. nuclear talks and
any further progress seen, the EU debt crisis and fresh
U.S. economic data coming out this week.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,375.00 and then at last
week’s high of 1,388.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at the overnight low of 1,360.70 and then at last
week’s low of 1,352.50. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh four-week low
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 2,725.00 and then at last week’s high of
2,742.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,682.00 and then at 2,675.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,800 and then at Friday’s low of 12,783. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Friday’s high of 12,890 and then more stops just above
resistance at last week’s high of 12,953. Shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at the
overnight low of 141 13/32 and then at 141 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at last week’s high of 141 27/32
and then at 142 even. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s
high of 131.23.5 and then at 132.00.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 131.10.0 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is higher early today. Bulls have
gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum just
recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at April high of 80.38 and then at 80.58.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.04
and then at 79.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly lower today. Prices
are still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $103.00 and then at $103.50. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$101.86 and then at $101.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. There was some
beneficial rain that fell in the U.S. Midwest during the
weekend, and that’s a bit bearish for the grains to start
the week. The key “outside markets” are in a mildly bearish
posture for the grains early today, as the U.S. dollar
index is firmer and crude oil prices are weaker.
 

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