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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 19

Apr 19, 2012

Thursday, April 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Grain futures prices popped sharply higher overnight on
some rumors of fresh China demand for U.S. corn. Short
covering and bargain-hunting are seen in the beleaguered
corn and wheat markets, while soybean bulls remain strong.
However, the present overall posture of the raw commodity
sector is very worrisome if you are a bull. The Continuous
Commodity Index is in a solid downtrend on the daily and
weekly charts. Of all the major commodity markets I follow
(which is most of them), the only markets in a price
uptrend on the daily chart at present are soybeans, soy
meal and soybean oil.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,390.00 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,378.90
and then at this week’s low of 1,359.60. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at this week’s high of
2,728.25 and then at last week’s high of 2,748.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,697.75
and then at 2,684.25. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,000 and then at Wednesday’s low of 12,955. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Wednesday’s high of 13,035 and then more stops just above
resistance at this week’s high of 13,070. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at the
overnight low of 141 14/32 and then at this week’s low of
141 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 142 even and then
at this week’s high of 142 9/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131.25.0 and
then at this week’s high of 131.29.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 131.13.5 and then at
this week’s low of 131.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. Trading
remains choppy and trendless. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 80.00 and then at
80.20. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
79.51 and then at last week’s low of 79.36. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $104.00 and then at $105.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $102.50 and then at
$102.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were solidly higher in overnight trading, on  short
covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside markets” are
in a mildly bearish posture for the grains early today, as
the U.S. dollar index is higher and crude oil prices are
steady. Corn and wheat bulls have faded badly recently as
technical damage has been inflicted. Soybean bulls are also
fading a bit to begin to suggest a near-term top is in
place in that market. Traders will closely scrutinize
today’s weekly USDA export sales report.
 

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