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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 23

Apr 23, 2012

Monday, April 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s a “risk off” trading day in the market place early
Monday, as the European Union is again in focus. French
elections on Sunday showed President Sarkozy with second-
place finish behind a Socialist party candidate. Most
believe a Socialist leadership in France would find that
country backing off on its firm commitment to resolve the
EU debt crisis. There was also very weak economic data
coming out of the EU Monday that suggests the EU is mired
in a recession. And the U.S. has its own stock market
worries as Wal Mart is accused of major bribery in Mexico.
All this is making for a skittish market place Monday
morning, which is bearish for not only the stock markets
but also most raw commodity markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,374.60 and then at Friday’s high of 1,383.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the April low of 1,352.50
and then at the March low of 1,338.80. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh six-week low
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,675.00 and then at
2,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,646.50 and then at 2,625.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,841 and then at last week’s low of 12,830. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,900 and then more stops just above resistance at 12,950.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh seven-week high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term support lies at 142 16/32 and then
at the overnight low of 142 1/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance
lies at the overnight high of 142 31/32 and then at 143
1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh 11-week high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the January and
February highs of 132.05.0 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.22.5 and
then at Friday’s low of 131.14.5. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is higher early today. Trading
remains choppy and trendless. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are still bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of
79.74 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at
last week’s low of 79.22 and then at 79.00. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. In
June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $103.90 and then at
Friday’s high of $104.68. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $102.50 and then at last week’s low of
$102.13. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. The key
“outside markets” are in a bearish posture for the grains
early today, as the U.S. dollar index is higher and crude
oil prices are lower. Corn and wheat are still in serious
near-term technical trouble.
 

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