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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 5

Apr 05, 2012

Thursday, April 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

While the overall market place is never wrong (it is what
it is!), it’s my bias that many traders over-reacted to the
FOMC minutes this week. Or, maybe the FOMC minutes were
just an excuse for some markets to correct to the downside
after recent gains. The media always seeks out a specific
reason why the market place does something, or tries to
rationalize the action of the market place. But many times
markets are not rational. Remember the old trading adage:
“Markets will do anything and everything possible to
frustrate the largest number of traders.”--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh two-week low overnight.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the overnight high of 1,397.60 and then at Wednesday’s high
of 1,408.60. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at 1,381.00 and then at 1,375.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh two-week low
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 2,746.00 and then at 2,765.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,722.50 and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,940 and then at 12,900. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 13,000 and then
more stops just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of
13,034. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls are regaining some upside technical
momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term support lies at 138 even
and then at the overnight low of 137 13/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 138 17/32
and then at 139 even. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 130.02.0 and then at 130.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 129.24.0 and then at the
overnight low of 129.12.5. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is higher again early today and
hit a fresh three-week high on more short covering. The
greenback bulls have gained upside near-term technical
momentum this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.27 and then
at 80.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 79.79 and then at Wednesday’s low of 79.54. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading modestly higher early today.
Bulls are fading again. Prices hit a fresh seven-week low on
Wednesday. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $102.43 and then
at $103.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at the overnight low of $101.56 and then at Wednesday’s low
of $101.08. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and soybean
bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum to
suggest more gains in the near term. Wheat bulls have faded
again. Traders will scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA
export sales report. But grain traders’ main focus now is
on the weather patterns in the U.S. midsection, heading
into the planting and growing season.
 

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