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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 13

Aug 13, 2012

Monday, August 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s another fairly quiet market place as the new trading
week gets under way. In overnight news, Asian stock markets
were weaker following a weaker-than-expected 1.4% annualized
Japanese GDP figure. That data followed last week’s weak
economic data coming out of China. European stocks were
supported overnight on news that an Italian 12-month
treasury bill auction was well-received Monday. However, in
a sign that the European Union debt crisis is still very
serious on the minds of European investors, Germany’s
auction of its treasury bills fetched a record low yield
Monday.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices poked to a fresh 3.5-month high
overnight. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum
on their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the May high of 1,411.50 and then at
1,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,396.80 and then at last week’s low of
1,387.40. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices poked to a fresh three-month
high overnight. Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,735.00 and then at the May high
of 2,753.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,712.00 and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices poked to a fresh 3.5-month high
overnight. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical
momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,100 and then at Friday’s low of 13,055. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,200 and then at 13,250. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 149 5/32 and
then at 149 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 148 18/32 and then at Friday’s low of 148 4/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.27.5 and then
at 134.04.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low
of 133.12.0 and then at last week’s low of 133.05.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 82.50 and
then at the overnight high of 82.76. Shorter-term support is
seen at last week’s low of 82.06 and then at 82.00.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. In September Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
last week’s high of $94.72 and then at $95.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$92.85 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading, on profit taking.
Friday morning’s key USDA monthly supply and demand report
was deemed overall bullish for the grains, but prices have
sold off in the wake of that report. It appears we are
seeing a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario play out
in the grains. Traders had been expecting such a bullish
report, and had already factored such into prices. My bias
is still that there is not much more room on the upside in
the grains, on a sustainable basis.
 

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