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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 17

Aug 17, 2012

Friday, August 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, German inflation remains subdued and rose
only 0.9% in July. The low inflation in the biggest economy
in the European Union lends more credence to a fresh round
of quantitative easing from the European Central Bank.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged her support for the
Euro currency in remarks Friday, which helped to buoy the
European stock markets. However, gains in European stocks
were limited by reports that said bad debt at Spanish banks
stood at a record high in June. Still, it’s another quiet
summertime trading day in the market place Friday. There has
been little “headline risk” in recent weeks, as much of
Europe is on vacation and the U.S. moves through the “dog
days” of summer. However, once September begins and the U.S.
Labor Day holiday is past, look for more headline risk
coming out of the European Union and its ongoing sovereign
debt crisis. That crisis has not just disappeared, as
evidenced by an upcoming German two-year bond auction next
week that is expected to produce a yield of near zero
percent.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls still have upside technical momentum
on their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 1,415.40 and then
at 1,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at Thursday’s low of 1,402.00 and then at last week’s low of
1,387.40. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Bulls have upside near-term technical
momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s
high of 2,774.00 and then at the April high of 2,791.50. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 2,750.00 and then at
Thursday’s low of 2,728.25. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Dow futures: Bulls still have upside near-term technical
momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,200 and then at 13,150. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of
13,240 and then at the May high of 13,280. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls have faded badly. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 146 2/32 and then
at Thursday’s high of 146 16/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies
at the overnight low of 145 15/32 and then at Thursday’s low
of 145 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Bears have downside technical
momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 132.20.0 and then at 132.28.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 132.10.0 and then at
Thursday’s low of 132.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been
choppy. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 82.75 and then at this week’s high of 82.96.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.38
and then at this week’s low of 82.25. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today, on some profit
taking from recent gains. In September Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at Thursday’s high
of $95.75 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $94.50 and then at $94.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly higher in overnight trading.
Focus in the grain markets is becoming less on the major
U.S. drought and the supply impact, and more on the high
grain prices and the resulting lessening demand impact. My
bias is still that there is not much more room on the
upside in the grains, on a sustainable basis.
 

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