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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 27

Aug 27, 2012

Monday, August 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is quieter to start the new trading week,
as the London markets are closed for a holiday, and as
traders and investors await key central bank meetings. The
Federal Reserve’s symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming has Fed
Chairman Bernanke speaking on Friday, and then next week’s
monthly European Central Bank meeting occurs on September 6.
Anticipation is higher that both central banks will announce
fresh monetary stimulus initiatives. Either way, many
markets will tread water in the coming days, ahead of those
key events. European stocks were lower overnight following a
weak reading on the German Ifo index of business sentiment.
German companies are becoming more downbeat regarding future
growth prospects. Meantime, Asian stock markets were lower
Monday following more weak economic data coming out of
China. Profits at China’s major industrial firms dropped
5.4% in July, on an annual basis. Also, HSBC downgraded its
2012 economic growth forecast for China from 8.4%, to 8.0%.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics also reported
manufacturing declined by 2.7%, on an annualized basis, the
first seven months of this year.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of
1,424.60 and then at 1,440.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,400.00 and then at 1,387.40. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at last week’s high of 2,802.50 and
then at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,780.75 and then at 2,760.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,100 and then at Friday’s low of 13,015. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,200 and then at 13,250. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls still have some upside near-
term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at last week’s high of 149 31/32 and then at 150 6/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 148 30/32 and
then at 148 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight high of 132.21.5 and then at last
week’s high of 132.27.5. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 132.11.5 and then at 132.00.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S.
trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage as a five-week-old downtrend line is in place on
the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.01 and then
at 82.25. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of
81.75 and then at last week’s low of 81.52. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls still have
some upside near-term technical momentum as prices hover
near the 3.5-month high scored last week. In October Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $97.72 and then at last week’s high of
$98.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $96.45 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. Bulls
still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Focus
now has turned more to the demand side of the balance sheet
in the grains, as the market place gets a better handle on
the supply side.
 

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