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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 30

Aug 30, 2012

Thursday, August 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The world market place remains on hold ahead of the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s annual meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming,
which begins today. Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks Friday.
Next week’s monthly European Central Bank meeting (September
6) will also be an important central bank event.
Anticipation is higher that both the U.S. and EU central
banks will announce fresh monetary stimulus initiatives at
these meetings. In overnight news, China Premiere Wen Jiabo
said his country will continue to buy European debt, which
gave support to the Euro currency. An Italian bond auction
fetched lower yields than last month, which hints there is
some growing optimism the EU debt crisis is at least
stabilizing. There was fresh, dour economic data coming out
of leading EU country Germany overnight, as unemployment
claims rose and business confidence declined to a 1.5-year
low.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,407.40 and then at this week’s high of 1,415.90 and then
at last week’s high of 1,424.60. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,400.00 and then at last week’s low of
1,395.40. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,782.50 and
then at this week’s high of 2,795.75. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at last week’s low of 2,750.50 and then at
2,725.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at last week’s low of 13,015 and then at 13,000. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,100 and then at Wednesday’s high of 13,125. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls still have some upside near-
term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s high of 150 15/32 and then at 151 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 149 22/32 and
then at this week’s low of 148 30/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s high of 133.00.0 and then at 133.08.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.22.5 and
then at this week’s low of 132.11.5. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage as a five-week-old downtrend line is in place on
the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 82.00 and then at this week’s high
of 82.13. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of
81.52 and then at 81.25. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. In October
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at Wednesday’s high of $96.37 and then at $97.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $94.91 and then at this week’s low of
$94.41. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Traders
will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export
sales data, especially as focus has turned to the demand
side of the balance sheet in the grains, as the market
place now has a bit better handle on the supply side. Grain
market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The major U.S. drought continues to be a bullish
underlying factor for the grains. But that news is not
fresh.
 

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