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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 31

Aug 31, 2012

Friday, August 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The world market place finally gets to hear and then digest
comments from U.S. Federal Reserve’s Board Chairman
Bernanke, who is speaking at the Fed’s annual symposium in
Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Presently, many veteran market
watchers, including this one, reckon odds are 50-50, or just
a bit higher, that the Fed will announce a fresh monetary
stimulus package at Jackson Hole, or at the FOMC meeting in
September. Odds are significantly higher that the European
Central Bank will announce a fresh stimulus package at next
week’s meeting. Look for very active trading in the
immediate aftermath of Bernanke’s 10:00 a.m. EDT speech.
However, trading could die down quickly as U.S. and Canadian
traders may hit the exit doors early today, ahead of the
long holiday weekend. Friday is the last trading day of the
month, which makes it an extra important trading day from a
technical perspective. In other overnight news, there was
more weak economic data coming out of the European Union.
The EU unemployment rate rose to 11.3% in July, while
inflation checked in at 2.6% in August, on an annualized
rate, which was higher than expected.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of
1,415.90 and then at last week’s high of 1,424.60. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at last week’s low of
1,395.40 and then at 1,385.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at Thursday’s high of 2,782.50 and then at this
week’s high of 2,795.75. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
Thursday’s low of 2,750.25 and then at 2,725.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,000 and then at Thursday’s low of 12,965. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,100 and then at 13,125. Shorter-term moving averages are
bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls still have some upside near-
term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s high of 150 23/32 and then at 151 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies 149 11/32 and then at this week’s low
of 148 30/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s high of 133.07.0 and then at 133.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.27.5 and
then at 132.22.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early
U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage as a five-week-old downtrend line is in place on
the daily bar chart. The DX is in danger of producing a
technically bearish monthly low close today. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 81.95 and then at this week’s high of
82.13. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of
81.52 and then at 81.25. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. In October Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
Thursday’s high of $95.60 and then at $96.37. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$94.51 and then at this week’s low of $93.95. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. A Russian official
said his country will not implement a grain export ban, and
that is having a bearish impact this morning. Grain market
bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The major U.S. drought continues to be a bullish
underlying factor for the grains. But that news is not
fresh. Focus is now less on the reduced supply and more on
the demand prospects, what with sharply higher grain
prices.
 

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