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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 9

Aug 09, 2012

Thursday, August 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is again quiet Thursday morning, amid a
lack of major, market-moving news in the world this week.
It’s the “dog days” of summer in the U.S. and much of Europe
is on holiday during August. In overnight overseas news, it
was reported Greece’s unemployment rate rose to a record
high of 23.1% in May. That’s up from a 16.8% jobless rate
last year. A monthly report from the European Central Bank
showed the ECB has ratcheted down its economic growth
projections for the EU for this year and next. China
reported its consumer price index rose 1.8% in July, from a
year earlier. The reading was down from the 2.2% rise, at an
annual rate, reported in June and also suggests the Chinese
central bank has scope for more economic stimulus. The Bank
of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, as expected.
The BOJ said the Japanese economy is expanding moderately.--
Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices poked to another three-month high
overnight. Bulls have upside technical momentum on their
side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at the overnight high of 1,403.90 and then at the May
high of 1,411.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at this week’s low of 1,387.40 and then at 1,375.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices poked to a fresh three-month
high overnight. Bulls have upside near-term technical
momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 2,723.25 and then at 2,735.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 2,686.25 and then at
this week’s low of 2,671.25. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Dow futures: Bulls have upside near-term technical momentum.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
13,100 and then at this week’s low of 13,057 and then at
13,000. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at this week’s high of 13,160 and then at 13,200.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls are fading badly. Prices hit a
fresh five-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 148 16/32 and then at 149 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 147 30/32 and
then at 147 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Bulls are fading badly. Prices hit
a fresh five-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.17.0 and then
at Wednesday’s high of 133.25.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 133.08.0 and then at 133.00.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 82.65 and then at 82.80. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 82.27 and then at
this week’s low of 82.06. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Prices hit a 2.5-
month high Wednesday. Bulls have some upside technical
momentum. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $94.00 and then at
Wednesday’s high of $94.72. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $92.82 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on some position
evening heading into Friday morning’s key USDA monthly
supply and demand report. Corn futures are near all-time
record highs as corn traders expect a very bullish USDA
report on Friday. In the Corn Belt, there are cooler temps
and some rain chances in the weather forecast. My bias is
still that there is not much more room on the upside in the
grains, on a sustainable basis.
 

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