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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 10

Dec 10, 2012

Monday, December 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti
announced he will resign from office early next year. That
news pressured the Euro currency and prompted an uptick in
Italian and Spanish bond yields. The news also prompted some
flight to safety buying of gold and the U.S. dollar. The
OECD issued a report overnight that said the U.S., China and
U.K economies will continue to grow slowly in 2013, but that
economies in the European Union, Japan and Canada will
contract. The OECD said China’s economic slowdown has ended.
Over the weekend Chinese industrial output was reported up
10% on an annualized basis in November, which was above
expectations. The China news is also a bullish underlying
factor for the raw commodity markets to start the new
trading week. The market place is awaiting this week’s last
Federal Reserve FOMC meeting of the year, on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The “Operation Twist” program ends and the FOMC
members must decide whether to extend a bond-buying program.
Many believe the Fed will continue to purchase U.S.
Treasuries outright and implement “QE4” at this week’s
meeting. That would be raw-commodity market bullish,
including bullish for the precious metals markets. Also in
the U.S., focus of the market place remains on the “fiscal
cliff” tax increases and spending cuts that is fast
approaching. President Obama and House Speaker Boehner did
meet face-to-face on Sunday to discuss the matter. While the
market place presently perceives odds are higher than not
that there will be a last-minute agreement among U.S.
lawmakers to avoid the fiscal cliff, the overall situation
continues to be a bearish drag on many markets, including
the raw commodities and stock markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today.
Prices are still in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,418.80 and
then at last week’s high of 1,423.90. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at Friday’s low of 1,408.60 and
then at last week’s low of 1,397.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today. The
bulls are fading a bit. The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,643.25 and then at
2,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at last week’s
low of 2,622.50 and then at 2,611.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at Friday’s
low of 13,085 and then at 13,050. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of 13,150
and then at 13,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are stilll
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 150 2/32 and then at 150 16/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 149 18/32 and
then at Friday’s low of 149 11/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 133.26.5 and then at the contract high of 134.01.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.18.5 and
then at Friday’s low of 133.15.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading
today, on some safe-haven demand. Bulls are gaining upside
near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
80.75 and then at Friday’s high of 81.05. Shorter-term
support is seen at Friday’s low of 80.39 and then at 80.00.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today, on short covering.
Bulls are fading. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at $87.00 and then at
$87.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
last week’s low of $85.68 and then at $85.36. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Soybean bulls have
gained some fresh upside technical momentum recently, while
trading in corn and wheat remains choppy. Grain market
traders will look to monthly USDA supply and demand report
on Tuesday for direction. My bias remains that there is not
strong downside price potential in the grains in the coming
weeks and months.
 

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