Jul 10, 2014
Home | Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin

AgDay Blog


Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 11

Dec 11, 2012

Tuesday, December 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the feature was the German ZEW economic
expectations index rising to a much higher-than-expected
reading of 6.9 in December versus November’s minus 15.7. The
report boosted European stocks and the Euro currency, while
Spanish and Italian bond yields fell. The market place is
awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting,
which begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon. The
“Operation Twist” program is ending and the FOMC members
will decide whether to extend a bond-buying program. Many
believe the Fed will announce it will continue to purchase
longer-term U.S. Treasuries, while stopping its sales of
shorter-term government debt, as was the case in the Twist
operations. The new plan would be ostensibly printing of
greenbacks by the Fed and would be raw-commodity market
bullish, including bullish for gold and silver markets. Also
in the U.S., attention of the market place remains on the
“fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending cuts that is fast
approaching. There is still no apparent movement from either
side on the matter. The market place presently perceives
odds are a bit higher than not that there will be a last-
minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the fiscal
cliff. Still, the overall situation continues to be a
bearish drag on many markets, including the raw commodities
and stock markets. U.S. economic reports due for release
Tuesday include the NFIB small business optimism index,
weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, the U.S. trade deficit report, monthly wholesale
trade and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer and hit a fresh four-week
high overnight. Bulls have near-term momentum on their side.
Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at the November high of 1,431.40 and then at 1,440.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,415.40 and then at last week’s low of 1,397.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,673.25 and
then at 2,685.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,644.25 and then at last week’s low of
2,622.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer and hit a fresh four-week
high overnight. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend as
bulls have near-term momentum. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 13,187 and then at 13,150. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at the
November high of 13,225 and then at 13,250. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 149
27/32 and then at 150 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 149 7/32 and then at 149 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today on profit
taking. Bull stills have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 133.22.0 and then at Monday’s high of
133.26.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
133.12.5 and then at 133.08.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading
today. Bulls are quickly fading again. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 80.50 and then at Monday’s high of 80.75. Shorter-
term support is seen at 80.00 and then at last week’s low of
79.78. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today, on short covering.
Bulls have faded recently. In January Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at $87.00 and then
at $87.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at Monday’s low of $85.33 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Soybean bulls have
gained some fresh upside technical momentum recently, while
corn and wheat bulls have faded badly. Grain market traders
will look to today’s monthly USDA supply and demand report
for fresh direction. My bias remains that there is not
strong downside price potential in the grains in the coming
weeks and months.
 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.

MARKETS

CROPSLIVESTOCKFINANCEENERGYMETALS
Market Data provided by Barchart.com
Enter Zip Code below to view live local results:
bayer
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions