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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 17

Dec 17, 2012

Monday, December 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, U.S. markets are subdued to start the new
trading week. The holiday season and end of the year are
approaching, with many traders winding things down or
stepping to the sidelines until January. Attention of the
market place remains on the U.S. “fiscal cliff” tax
increases and spending cuts that is fast approaching. The
market place reckons odds are a bit higher than not that
there will be a last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers
to avoid the fiscal cliff. The overall situation remains a
bearish drag on many markets, including the raw commodities
and stock markets. In overnight news, European stocks and
the Euro currency were weaker on more dour Euro zone
economic news. Euro zone exports were reported down 1.4%,
month-on-month, in October. Also, the German Bundesbank said
Monday the German economy has seen significant contraction
heading into the end of the year. In Japan, the Liberal
Democratic Party was swept into power over the weekend,
which means Japan’s monetary policy will remain very
accommodative. The Japanese yen was sharply lower against
the U.S. dollar Monday. Along with the U.S. Federal
Reserve’s commitment to easy money announced last week and
the European Central Bank being in the same position, such
are bullish underlying factors for the raw commodity
markets. U.S. economic reports due for release Monday
include the Empire State manufacturing survey and Treasury
international capital data.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Friday’s high of 1,419.30 and then at 1,425.30. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at last week’s low of
1,406.00 and then at the December low of 1,397.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today and hit
a fresh three-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,638.50 and
then at 2,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,609.25 and then at 2,600.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,055
and then at 13,000. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Friday’s high of 13,125 and then at
13,170. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls
have faded recently and need to show more power soon.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 148 19/32
and then 150 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 147 30/32 and then at Friday’s low of 147 15/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls
are fading and need to show fresh power soon. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at Friday’s high of 132.28.5 and then at
133.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of
132.17.0 and then at 132.10.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S.
trading today. Bulls have faded recently. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 79.78 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term
support is seen at Friday’s low of 79.57 and then at last
week’s low of 79.40. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bears still
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. In
January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at last week’s high of $87.68 and then at $88.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00
and then at last week’s low of $85.21. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Corn was steady,
soybeans firmer and wheat slightly higher. The grain market
bulls have faded recently, with wheat leading downside
price action. The wheat market’s price action recently is
worrisome for the entire grain futures complex. If wheat
prices continue to erode, there is likely to be spillover
selling pressure enter the corn and soybean markets and at
least limit their upside potential. All grain traders need
to keep a closer eye on the wheat market in the near term.
 

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