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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 18

Dec 18, 2012

Tuesday, December 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

U.S. and world markets are quieter and trading volumes lower
this week as the holidays and end of the year are right
around the corner. Many traders are winding things down and
stepping to the sidelines until January. Attention of the
market place remains on the U.S. “fiscal cliff” tax
increases and spending cuts that is fast approaching. On
Monday there was movement on the Republican side toward more
middle ground, which suggested both sides are coming closer
to a deal. The market place reckons odds are higher than not
that there will be a last-minute agreement among U.S.
lawmakers to avoid the fiscal cliff. The overall situation
has been a bearish drag on many markets, including the raw
commodities and stock markets. In overnight news, Asian and
European stock markets did push higher on the apparent
progress on the U.S. fiscal cliff talks. Data from the
European Union showed Spain’s local banks held a record
amount of bad debt in October as overall loans dropped to a
five-year low. This is a reminder of the major financial and
economic problems that EU leaders face in the coming months.
U.S. economic reports due for release Tuesday include the
weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, and the NAHB housing market index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today
and hit a fresh two-month high overnight. Bulls have gained
fresh upside momentum as a four-week-old uptrend is in place
on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-
, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,440.00 and
then at 1,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at the overnight low of 1,427.60 and then at 1,415.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,687.50 and
then at 2,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,662.25 and then at 2,650.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 13,184 and
then at 13,150. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 13,240 and then at 13,300. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and hit a
fresh six-week low overnight. Bulls have faded badly
recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 147 8/32 and then 147 16/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies
at the overnight low of 146 20/32 and then at the November
low of 146 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today and hit a
fresh six-week low overnight. Bulls are fading badly.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 132.12.5 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 132.04.0 and then at 132.00.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading
today. Bulls have faded recently. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 79.78
and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at last
week’s low of 79.40 and then at the October low of 79.20.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bears still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage. In January
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $87.00 and then at $86.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. The grain market
bulls have faded recently amid slack demand for U.S. grains
and a lack of fresh bullish fundamental news.
 

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