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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 19

Dec 19, 2012

Wednesday, December 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the Euro currency hit a fresh seven-month
high and European stocks rallied in the wake of a big credit
rating upgrade for Greece by Standard & Poor’s. There was
also a positive German Ifo business confidence report for
December released Wednesday. The apparent progress on the
U.S. fiscal cliff talks has also been supportive to world
stock markets recently. On the negative side, the Euro zone
construction industry showed its sharpest decline in several
months in October. Reports also said Spain’s prime minister
will not request fresh European Union bailout funds at this
time, but may in the future. U.S. economic reports due for
release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage
applications survey, new residential construction, and the
weekly DOE energy stocks report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today
and hit another fresh two-month high overnight. Bulls have
upside momentum as a four-week-old uptrend is in place on
the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,450.00 and then at
1,460.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,440.00 and then at 1,433.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer again early today
and hit a fresh two-month high overnight. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at 2,725.00 and then at
2,740.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,700.50 and then at 2,680.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh
two-month high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 13,250 and then at 13,200. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,350 and then at 13,400. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering after hitting a two-month low Tuesday. Bears have
fresh downside technical momentum. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 146 18/32 and then
147 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 145
19/32 and then at 145 even. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today
on tepid short covering after hitting a six-week low on
Tuesday. Bulls are fading badly. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.04.5 and then
at Tuesday’s high of 132.12.5. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
Tuesday’s low of 131.25.5 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading
today and hit a fresh three-month low overnight. Bears have
gained good downside momentum recently. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 79.39 and then at Tuesday’s high of 79.65. Shorter-
term support is seen at the September low of 78.94 and then
at 78.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls have gained
some upside near-term technical momentum recently. In
February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $90.00 and then at the December high of
$90.90. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $88.26 and then at $87.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans
were slightly lower and wheat was higher on some bargain
hunting and fresh demand news. The grain market bulls have
faded recently and bears still have some near-term
technical momentum on their side.
 

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