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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 20

Dec 20, 2012

Thursday, December 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stocks were narrowly mixed as
investors worried about the U.S. fiscal cliff negotiations
that appear to have again stalled, after some movement
toward an agreement was apparent earlier in the week. The
U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on a “Plan B”
budget plan that President Obama said he will veto. Markets
do not like uncertainty and most markets will remain jittery
until the fiscal cliff issue comes to pass. In other
overnight news, the Bank of Japan announced another monetary
stimulus plan Thursday, which was not unexpected. U.S.
economic reports due for release Thursday are many and
include the weekly jobless claims report, the consumer
confidence index, third-quarter GDP, revised corporate
profits, existing home sales, leading economic indicators,
the Philadelphia Fed business survey, the monthly house
price index,and foreign central bank holdings.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early trading
today. Prices Wednesday hit a two-month high. Bulls have
upside momentum as a four-week-old uptrend is in place on
the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of
1,445.80 and then at 1,460.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,427.30 and then
at 1,415.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. Bulls are having a good week. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Wednesday’s
high of 2,713.75 and then at 2,725.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,685.50 and then at
2,675.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls
still have some upside near-term technical momentum on their
side. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support
at 13,200 and then at 13,150. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 13,250 and then at this week’s
high of 13,310. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on more
short covering after hitting a two-month low Tuesday.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 147 4/32 and then 147 16/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies
the overnight low of 146 16/32 and then at 146 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today
on tepid short covering after hitting a six-week low on
Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 132.12.0 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 132.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of
131.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker again in early U.S.
trading. Prices Wednesday hit a three-month low. Bears still
have good downside momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
79.43 and then at 79.65. Shorter-term support is seen at
Wednesday’s low of 70.01 and then at the September low of
78.94. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls have
gained some upside near-term technical momentum recently. In
February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at Wednesday’s high of $90.33 and then at
the December high of $90.90. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $89.42 and then at
$89.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were solidly lower in overnight trading. The grain
market bulls have faded badly recently and bears have
downside near-term technical momentum on their side.
Traders will examine today’s weekly USDA export sales
report as the bulls are hoping for some better export
demand news.
 

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