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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 26

Dec 26, 2012

Wednesday, December 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web
Log

Note: I was out of the office this morning. My friend and fellow analyst/trader Ken
Seehusen produced my morning report. Ken's style is a bit different than mine, but I think
you'll also benefit from Ken's work.--Jim
The STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher in post Christmas trading
overnight but remains below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics have
turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below Monday’s low crossing at crossing at 2636.25
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the
rally off November’s low, the 75% retracement level of the September-
November decline crossing at 2761.06 is the next upside target. First
resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November
decline crossing at 2715.55. Second resistance is the 75% retracement
level of the September-November decline crossing at 2716.62.
First support is Monday’s low crossing at 2636.25. Second support is the
reaction low at 2609.25.

The March S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates
some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1416.32 are needed to
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally
off November’s low, October’s high crossing at 1456.30 is the next
upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at
1445.80. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 1456.30. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1416.32. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 1379.00.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-18 are needed to confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month’s decline,
the 75% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at
145-09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 147-08. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 148-18. First support is the 75% retracement
level of the September-November rally crossing at 145-09. Second support
is the 87% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at
144-09.

ENERGY MARKETS

February crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of its
recent losses. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If February
extends last week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 90.90 is the
next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 90.90 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February
renews the decline off last month’s high, the 87% retracement level of
the June-September rally crossing at 82.75 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 90.90. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 94.42. First support is
November’s low crossing at 84.16. Second support is the 87% retracement
level of the June-September rally crossing at 82.75.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this
week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a
short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 79.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If March renews the decline off November’s high,
September’s low crossing at 78.94 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.95. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.05. First support is last
Wednesday’s low crossing at 79.01. Second support is September’s low
crossing at 78.94.

GRAINS

March corn was higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates
some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but
remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible
near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50%
retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 6.77 3/4 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
7.33 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.15 1/4.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.33 3/4.
First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 6.87 1/2. Second
support is the 50% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at
6.77 3/4.

March wheat was higher due to short covering on Monday as it
consolidates some of the decline off November’s high. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that
additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline
off November’s high, the 62% retracement level of the May-July rally
crossing at 7.65 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 8.36 3/4 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low might be in or is near. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 8.05 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 8.36 3/4. First support is last Thursday’s
low crossing at 7.82 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of
the May-July rally crossing at 7.65 3/4.

March soybeans were higher due to short covering on Monday as it
consolidates some of last week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends last week’s decline, November’s low crossing
at 13.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving
average crossing at 14.55 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 14.55 1/2.
Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 15.01 1/4. First
support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 13.97 3/4. Second support is
November’s low crossing at 13.56.

 

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