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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 6

Dec 06, 2012

Thursday, December 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European Union countries’ collective
gross domestic product shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter,
from the previous quarter, and was down 0.6% from the same
period last year. EU businesses curtailed their investment
and drew down their existing stockpiles in the three months
ending in September. Most believe the EU will continue its
economic contraction at least into the fourth quarter of
2012. Meantime, Greece’s unemployment rate rose to 26% in
September, from 25.3% in August, it was reported Thursday.
On the positive side, German manufacturing orders increased
more than expected, at up 3.9% in October. In the U.S., the
focus of the market place remains on the “fiscal cliff” tax
increases and spending cuts that is fast approaching. U.S.
lawmakers are still jawboning on the matter. Wednesday, U.S.
Treasury Secretary Geithner said the Obama administration is
willing to go over the fiscal cliff if the wealthiest
Americans are not taxed more. While the market place
presently perceives odds are higher than not that there will
be a last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the
fiscal cliff, the overall situation has been a bearish drag
on many markets, including the raw commodities and stock
markets. The market place is starting to look ahead to next
week’s last Federal Reserve FOMC meeting of the year, on
December 10 and 11. The “Operation Twist” program ends and
the FOMC members must decide whether to extend the bond-
buying program. Many believe the Fed will continue to
purchase U.S. Treasuries and implement “QE4” at next week’s
meeting. That would be raw-commodity market bullish,
including bullish for the precious metals markets. U.S.
economic reports due for release Thursday include weekly
jobless claims, and the Challenger job cuts report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Wednesday’s high of 1,414.80 and then at this week’s high of
1,423.90. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at this
week’s low of 1,397.00 and then at last week’s low of
1,383.20. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,650.00 and
then at 2,665.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this
week’s low of 2,623.00 and then at 2,611.50. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls still
have some upside technical momentum on their side. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,000
and then at 12,950. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 13,075 and then
at 13,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at this week’s high of 150 21/32 and then at
151 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
150 3/32 and then at Wednesday’s low of 149 27/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today and hit a
fresh contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 134.00.0 and then at 134.08.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.24.0 and
then at Wednesday’s low of 133.15.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S.
trading today, on tepid short covering after hitting a six-
week low on Wednesday. Bears still have some downside near-
term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
80.12 and then at this week’s high of 80.34. Shorter-term
support is seen at this week’s low of 79.78 and then at
79.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls and
bears are struggling for near-term control with neither
gaining much of an advantage. In January Nymex crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $88.23 and then at $89.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $87.00 and then at
$86.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Soybean bulls have
gained fresh upside technical momentum recently, while
trading in corn and wheat remains choppy. Traders will
closely scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export sales
report. My bias remains that there is not strong downside
price potential in the grains in the coming weeks and
months.
 

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