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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--December 12

Dec 12, 2011

Monday, December 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s a “risk-off” day to start the new trading weeks, as the
market place was not impressed with the European Union summit
that ended Friday. A wire service story I read this morning best
summarizes the EU debt situation. The situation has turned into
“a rolling crisis” that appears not to be intensifying but also
which is not diminishing. What does this mean for most of the
markets, at present: more choppy and trendless trading.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 1,254.30 and then at last week’s high of
1,268.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,239.00 and then at last week’s low of
1,223.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight
high of 2,322.00 and then at last week’s high of 2,344.75. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,295.75 and
then at 2,284.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,000 and then more stops just below support at
11,950. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at Friday’s high of 12,130 and then at 12,200. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
support lies at 141 even and then at the overnight low of 140
25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-
term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 141 26/32
and then at 142 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 130.08.5 and then at last week’s high of
130.15.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
129.21.0 and then at last week’s low of 129.03.5. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading
today, on safe-haven buying interest. Dollar index bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.92
and then at the November high of 80.32. Shorter-term support is
seen at of 79.50 and then at the overnight low of 79.21.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today. Bulls have faded
a bit. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $99.68 and then at $100.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight
low of $97.89 and then at last week’s low of $97.36. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. The grain markets got a
surprisingly bearish USDA report on Friday morning—one that was
expected to be a yawner. The key “outside markets” are also
bearish today—weaker crude oil and stock index futures, and a
stronger U.S. dollar index. Grain markets are still technically
very weak.
 

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