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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--December 14

Dec 14, 2011

Wednesday, December 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Gold futures are under strong selling pressure again this morning
and hit a fresh two-month low, as the U.S. dollar index hits a
fresh multi-month high and the Euro currency falls to a fresh 11-
month low. It’s a “risk-off” trader mentality to start the
trading day. Gold has recently been acting like a risk asset with
other commodities, and less like a safe-haven asset. Serious
near-term chart damage has been inflicted in gold, as a downtrend
line on the daily chart was negated and a fresh downtrend is in
place. However, the longer-term price trend on the monthly chart
for gold remains up.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 1,226.30 and then at Tuesday’s high of
1,243.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at Tuesday’s
low of 1,212.80 and then at 1,200.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight
high of 2,276.50 and then at 2,300.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 2,250.00 and then at 2,225.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Tuesday’s low of 11,830 and then more stops just below
support at 11,800. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 11,900 and then at 11,950. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 17/32 and
then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight
high of 143 even and then at this week’s high of 143 9/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at this week’s high of 130.19.0 and then at the
October high of 130.22.0. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 130.07.0 and then at 130.00.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today and
hit a fresh contract high, on safe-haven buying demand. Dollar
index bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.25
and then at 81.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 80.78 and then at 80.58. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today, as trading has
been choppy at higher levels, which is not bullish. In January
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$100.00 and then at this week’s high of $101.25. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $98.00 and then at last
week’s low of $97.36. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were weaker in overnight trading, amid the “risk off”
trading day so far today. The key “outside markets” are bearish
today—lower crude oil and stock index futures, and a higher U.S.
dollar index. Grain markets are still technically very weak
heading into the end of the year. Grain bulls may be reluctant to
do much until the new year starts.
 

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