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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--December 15

Dec 15, 2011

Thursday, December 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Many commodity markets were pounded lower again Wednesday, led by
big losses in gold and crude oil. My bias is still that there is
not much downside price pressure left in most commodity markets
and that the new year will be generally bullish for commodities.
On Wednesday it almost got to the point in some commodity markets
where fear was the major market force. That’s another clue of
market bottoms being close at hand for many commodities. Remember
that it was Warren buffet who said he is fearful when other
traders get greedy, and he is greedy when other traders get
fearful.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at Wednesday’s high of 1,226.30 and then at Tuesday’s
high of 1,243.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at
the overnight low of 1,198.30 and then at 1,175.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,250.00 and then
at Wednesday’s high of 2,276.50. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 2,215.00 and then at 2,200.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Wednesday’s low of 11,730 and then more stops just
below support at 11,700. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 11,900 and then at 11,950. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh three-week high overnight.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term support
lies at the overnight low of 144 9/32 and then at 144 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at 145 even and then at the November 
high of 145 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh nearly three-month high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the September high of 131.05.0 and then
at 131.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.16.0 and then at
130.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today and
is seeing mild profit taking after hitting an 11-month high on
Wednesday. Dollar index bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 81.41 and then at
81.75. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 80.78
and then at 80.58. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly higher early today, on a
tepid upside corrective from strong losses posted Wednesday that
did produce serious near-term technical damage. In January crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $96.00 and
then at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at the overnight low of $94.71 and then at Wednesday’s low of
$94.21. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading, on tepid short
covering following selling pressure Wednesday. The key “outside
markets” are mildly bullish for grains today—firmer crude oil and
stock index futures, and a weaker U.S. dollar index. Grain market
traders will closely scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export
sales report.
 

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