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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 11

Feb 11, 2013

Monday, February 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Most Asian markets were closed Monday for
the Lunar New Year celebration. China is on holiday all week
for the Lunar New Year. That may limit buying interest in
the gold and silver markets this week, due to demand from
China slowing during its holiday season. Later this week the
Group of 20 nations meets in Moscow. A main topic will be
currency values as many industrialized nations have in
recent months, or longer, worked to devalue their currencies
to revive their economic growth. There is growing concern
that “currency wars” could break out if there is not some
form of agreement reached soon by the major nations. At
present, Japan is seen as the major instigator as the yen
continues to plummet in value. Reports during the weekend
said the U.S. and European Union finance officials are
considering issuing a joint statement on the matter,
designed to ease growing worries and to send a warning to
other countries. If the major countries cannot come to
meaningful agreement on the matter and continue to work to
devalue their currencies, that could become a major bullish
force for the gold market, which is viewed by many traders
and investors worldwide as a safe-haven “hard currency.” In
other news, the OECD said in a report Monday that the
European Union debt crisis is stabilizing amid Euro zone
economic improvement. The group also said there will be
economic growth divergence in the near future, with the
U.S., U.K., Japan and Brazil showing economic growth, while
China, Canada, France and India are set for economic
weakness in the coming months. There is no major U.S.
economic data due for release Monday.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today
and poked to another fresh five-year high overnight. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,525.00 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,500.00 and then at last week’s low of
1,490.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a fresh
four-month high early today. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
2,790.00 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 2,765.00 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hovering near
a five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Friday’s low of 13,910 and then at
13,850. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at last week’s high of 13,970 and then at 14,000.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bears
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage
as risk appetite in the market place has been on the upswing
for several weeks. That’s bearish for safe-haven bonds and
notes. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 143
27/32 and then at last week’s high of 144 6/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 143 even and then at 142 21/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.25.0 and then
at last week’s high of 131.29.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at Friday’s low of 131.13.0 and then at 131.07.5. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady early today and
did hit a fresh four-week high overnight. The bulls are
gaining some upside momentum but the greenback bears still
hold the overall near-term technical adavantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 80.42 and then at 80.79. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 80.17 and then at
80.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. However, they
have faded the past week or so and need to step up and show
fresh power soon. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at $96.00 and then at
Friday’s high of $96.57. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $95.00 and then at $94.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower overnight. Bulls have faded recently as
the seasonal “February Break” phenomenon may be at hand for
the grain markets. There may be some near-term selling
pressure in the grains, but I am still longer-term bullish
the grains. Thus, present price weakness in the grains
could be seen as value-buying opportunities looking at what
prices could be fetching in the coming months.
 

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