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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 12

Feb 12, 2013

Tuesday, February 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

News that North Korea detonated another nuclear bomb
underground, in defiance of United Nations sanctions, had
little impact on the market place overnight. However, North
Korea’s rogue status on the world stage could quickly flare
up into an international incident, which would prompt
investor demand for perceived safe-haven assets like gold,
the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries. Moody’s ratings agency
on Tuesday lowered its economic growth expectations for the
eight major economies of the world. Moody’s said the growth
rate of the group would be a collective 1.4% in 2013. That’s
down 0.2% from Moody’s forecast for the same group in
November. That news helped put some downside price pressure
on the European stock markets overnight. The Lunar New Year
celebration is occurring this week in Asia. China is on
holiday all week for the celebration. That is slightly
bearish for the gold market as it is limiting physical
buying interest from the Chinese this week. The Group of 20
nations meets in Moscow on Friday and Saturday. A main topic
will likely be currency values as many industrialized
nations have in recent months, or longer, worked to devalue
their currencies to revive their economic growth. The Group
of Seven nations on Tuesday issued a statement that said
their central banks were not attempting to devalue their
currencies, but instead trying to boost their economic
growth rates. The G-7 nations also said they will not target
specific currency exchange rates. The statement was meant to
head off growing concerns that “currency wars” could break
out if there is not some form of agreement reached soon by
the major nations, regarding currency exchange rates. At
present, Japan is seen as the major instigator as the yen
continues to plummet in value. The fact that the G-7 is
attempting to “jawbone” the matter before the G-20 meeting
even begins is an indicator the situation is considered
serious by the G-7 countries.  If the major countries cannot
come to meaningful agreement on the matter and continue to
work to devalue their currencies, that could become a major
bullish force for the gold market. U.S. economic data due
for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index,
and the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail
sales reports. President Obama delivers his State of the
Union speech Tuesday evening.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early trading
today and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,525.00 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,500.00 and then at last week’s low of
1,490.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady and hovering
near a four-month high early today. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage and have recently seen a
bullish upside “breakout” from a sideways trading range. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
Monday’s high of 2,779.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 2,763.00 and
then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today and hovering
near a five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at Monday’s low of 13,895 and then
at 13,850. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at last week’s high of 13,970 and then at 14,000.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as risk
appetite in the market place has been on the upswing for
several weeks. That’s bearish for safe-haven bonds and
notes. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 143 27/32
and then at last week’s high of 144 6/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 143 13/32 and then at
143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high
of 131.25.0 and then at last week’s high of 131.29.5. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.16.5 and
then at 131.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early today
but did hit another fresh four-week high overnight. The
bulls are gaining some upside momentum but the greenback
bears still hold the overall near-term technical adavantage.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 80.59 and then at the
January high of 80.99. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 80.23 and then at 80.00. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage and have early
this week regained some upside near-term technical momentum.
In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $98.00 and then at the January high of
$98.24. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $96.68 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Corn and wheat were weaker
and soybeans firmer. Grain market bulls have faded recently
as the seasonal “February Break” phenomenon appears to be
at hand. There may be some near-term selling pressure in
the grains, but I am still longer-term bullish the grains.
Thus, present price weakness in the grains could be seen as
value-buying opportunities looking at what prices could be
fetching in the coming months.
 

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