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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 4

Feb 04, 2013

Monday, February 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

(Note: I’ve been posting daily dispatches on Twitter for
quite some time. I invite you to follow me, and it’s free:
@jimwyckoff )

In overnight news, European stocks were weaker along with
the Euro currency, as Spanish and Italian bond yields crept
higher. There is political scandal in Spain and banking
troubles in Italy that are grabbing the European financial
news headlines to start the new trading week. However, the
Standard & Poors ratings agency said Monday that European
Union periphery countries that are weaker have been making
progress to climb back to economic health. However, S&P said
Greece is still in big trouble. Later this week China will
issue a fresh batch of economic data, including inflation
and trade balance reports. U.S. economic data due for
release Monday includes the ISM New York report on business,
manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the employment
trends index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading
today and are hovering near Friday’s five-year high. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Friday’s fresh for-the-move
high of 1,510.00 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at last week’s low of 1,491.20 and
then at 1,475.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today on
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at last week’s high of 2,764.00 and then at the
January high of 2,768.75. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
Friday’s low of 2,730.50 and then at last week’s low of
2,716.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today after hitting a
five-year high on Friday. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 13,850 and then at 13,800. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,908 and then at Friday’s high of 13,960. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and hit
another fresh contract low overnight. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 142 24/32 and then
at 143 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
contract low of 142 5/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today and hit a
fresh 4.5-month low overnight. Bears have downside near-
term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 131.04.0 and then at 131.08.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.23.0 and
then at 130.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher early today on short
covering in a bear market. Greenback bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
79.75 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 79.17 and then at last week’s low of 78.91.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today on some profit taking
after prices hit a 4.5-month high last week. Bulls still
have some upside momentum as a two-month-old uptrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. In March Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at $97.50 and then
at $98.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at $96.00 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight. Dry weather in Argentina is
still a bullish factor for corn and soybeans. Traders will
closely scrutinize today’s weekly USDA export inspections
report. Grain traders are also awaiting Friday morning’s
USDA monthly supply and demand report.
 

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