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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 8

Feb 08, 2013

Friday, February 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, China issued a fresh batch of much-
anticipated economic data Friday. China’s trade surplus came
in higher than expected, at $29.2 billion in January.
Forecasts were for a $26.5 billion surplus. December’s
surplus was $31.6 billion. That report further supported
notions the Chinese economy is on the rebound. Also reported
Friday were China’s inflation data. The consumer price index
was up 2% in January, from a year earlier, and down from the
2.5% annual rise seen in December. The robust trade data and
tame inflation numbers are a positive for the world market
place because they suggest China is on the upswing and also
will not have to tighten monetary policy to keep inflation
in check. Next week, China will be on holiday for the Lunar
New Year. The European Union debt crisis front has remained
fairly quiet for a few months. However, economic and
financial problems in the EU are still serious. Economic
data for Italy, released Friday, was downbeat. Italian
industrial output during all of 2012 fell to its lowest
level in many years. Italy is the third-largest economy in
the EU. Italian and Spanish bond yields are starting to
creep higher again, which is an early clue that the EU debt
crisis could be back on the front burner of the market place
at some point in the not too distant future. Such would be a
significantly bullish factor for the safe-have asset gold.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S.
trade in goods and services report, and monthly wholesale
trade.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early trading
today and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
this week’s high of 1,510.90 and then at 1,520.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and then at this
week’s low of 1,490.50. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage amid recent choppy trading. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at 2,750.00 and then at this
week’s high of 2,759.25. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,725.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,709.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today and hovering
near a five-year high. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 13,850 and then at Thursday’s low
of 13,805. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at last week’s high of 13,960 and then at 14,000.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early today
on tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at this week’s high of 144 6/32 and then at
last week’s high of 144 13/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 143 17/32 and then at 143 2/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of
131.29.5 and then at 132.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 131.20.5 and then at 131.12.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today on a
corrective pullback from this week’s good gains. Greenback
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, the bulls are gaining some upside momentum. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
this week’s high of 80.34 and then at 80.50. Shorter-term
support is seen at 80.00 and then at 79.75. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-month-old
uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In March Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$97.00 and then at $97.50. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $95.70 and then at
$95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. Grain traders are
anxiously awaiting this morning’s USDA monthly supply and
demand report for better direction. Look for more volatile
trade today after the USDA data. Bulls have faded this week
as the seasonal “February Break” phenomenon may be at hand
for the grain markets.
 

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