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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--February 14

Feb 14, 2012

Tuesday, February 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place wants to focus on something other than the
European Union debt crisis, which has been hogging the
financial news headlines for the past two years. However,
the issue just won’t go away. As the EU crisis continues at
a steady drip there are markets that view the matter as
bullish: U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes, gold and the U.S. dollar
index. I make this prediction: By the end of 2012, the EU
debt crisis will either be improving to the point of being
a non-factor for the market place, or it will have
escalated to the point of impacting most markets in a major
way by pushing the major world economies back into serious
recessions.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the July 2011 high of
1,354.50 and then at 1,365.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,344.00 and then
at 1,333.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices poked to another fresh 11-year
high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,575.25 and then at
2,585.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,561.25 and then at Monday’s low of 2,551.75. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Monday’s low of 12,790 and then more stops just
below support at 12,738. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 12,800 and then at last week’s high
of 12,880. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Trading has turned choppy. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
support lies at 142 even and then at Monday’s low of 141
26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high
of 143 even and then at 143 17/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Trading has turned choppy. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.12.5 and then
at 131.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low
of 130.28.5 and then at last week’s low of 130.18.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today,
on some short covering. Bears still have some downside
technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.46 and then
at the February high of 79.66. Shorter-term support is seen
at 79.00 and then at Monday’s low of 78.71. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading higher early today and hit a
fresh nearly four-week high overnight. A five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and bulls
have fresh upside near-term technical momentum. In March
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$102.00 and then at $102.24. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $101.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly weaker in overnight trading.
The key “outside markets” are mixed for the grains today,
as the U.S. dollar index is firmer while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes are also firmer. The bulls on Monday did
gain some confidence that the “February Break” seasonal
weakness just paid a very brief visit this year. Soybean
bulls gained good upside technical momentum on Monday.
 

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