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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--February 15

Feb 15, 2012

Wednesday, February 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Trading the rest of this week will be extra important for
the U.S. dollar index. The dollar index is a basket of six
major world currencies weighted against the greenback. The
dollar index scored a fresh three-week high on Tuesday. If
the DX can move higher the rest of this week and close near
the weekly high on Friday, then it would be a strong clue
that the index can embark on a fresh near-term uptrend. If
the DX slumps into the end of the week, then it would be
likely the present near-term downtrend in the greenback
would remain in place for some time to come.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh nine-month high
overnight as the bulls remain very strong. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the May
2011 high of 1,372.70 and then at 1,385.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,346.60
and then at 1,333.50. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit yet another fresh 11-year
high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,600.00 and then at 2,615.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,574.25 and then at Tuesday’s low of 2,553.25. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.5

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh four-year high overnight.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
12,840 and then more stops just below support at 12,790. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,950 and then at 13,000. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at the
overnight low of 142 29/32 and then at Tuesday’s low of 142
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high
of 143 12/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 143 20/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 131.13.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of
131.18.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
131.06.5 and then at this week’s low of 130.28.5. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but
need to show more power soon to keep it. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 79.61 and then at Tuesday’s high of 79.76.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.20
and then at 79.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading higher early today and hit a
fresh four-week high overnight. Bulls have gained fresh
upside near-term technical momentum. In March crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $102.50 and
then at $103.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $101.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. The key “outside
markets” are bullish for the grains today, as the U.S.
dollar index is weaker while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes are higher. The grain bulls this week have gained
confidence that the “February Break” seasonal weakness just
paid a brief visit this year. Soybean bulls have gained
good upside technical momentum this week.
 

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