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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--February 16

Feb 16, 2012

Thursday, February 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

All commodity market traders should keep a close eye on the
U.S. Treasury bond futures market. Reason: Any major bull
run in the raw commodity sector will not occur unless T-
Bond prices start to back down from their higher levels
(lower yields). To explain, it will take a significant rise
in investor risk appetite to uncork big bull market runs in
the perceived riskier commodity markets. At present, a
major portion of investment money rests in safe-haven U.S.
bonds (and notes). As long as T-bond prices remain at
higher levels it will strongly suggest investor risk
appetite remains low, which will keep most commodity market
prices under wraps.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are lower on profit taking after
hitting a nine-month high Wednesday. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s
high of 1,358.10 and then at 1,375.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at 1,325.00 and then at 1,312.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices seeing profit taking after
hitting an 11-year high Wednesday. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at last week’s high of
2,565.00 and then at 2,577.50. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 2,542.75 and then at 2,525.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are seeing profit taking after hitting a
four-year high Wednesday. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at last week’s low of 12,710 and
then more stops just below support at 12,650. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,763 and
then at 12,800. Shorter-term moving averages are still
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term support lies at
the overnight low of 143 9/32 and then at 143 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at this week’s high of 143 27/32
and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at this week’s high of 131.24.5 and then at 132.00.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
131.18.0 and then at 131.06.5. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage and are
gaining fresh upside momentum as prices hit a fresh three-
week high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.24 and then
at 80.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at
the overnight low of 79.86. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today and are
seeing a corrective pullback after prices Wednesday hit a
fresh four-week high. Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. In March crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $102.00 and then at this
week’s high of $102.54. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $100.00 and then at $99.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The key
“outside markets” are bearish for the grains today, as the
U.S. dollar index is higher while crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes are weaker. The grain bulls are again worried
about the “February Break” seasonal weakness. However,
soybean bulls have gained good upside technical momentum
this week. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning’s
weekly USDA export sales data.
 

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