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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--February 23

Feb 23, 2012

Thursday, February 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place has shifted its focus from the European
Union debt crisis to the rising tensions in the Middle
East. It’s likely the stare-down between Israel and the
U.S. versus Iran will not go away soon. This will continue
to put a bid into crude oil and gold markets, and in turn
be a bullish underlying factor for most other commodity
markets. It’s likely the Mid-East tension at present has
crude oil futures holding around a $15 or $20 price
premium.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,362.20 and then at the May 2011 high of 1,372.70. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,350.00 and
then at last week’s low of 1,334.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at last week’s and this
week’s high of 2,600.50 and then at 2,620.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 2,572.00 and then at 2,550.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Wednesday’s low of 12,895 and then more stops
just below support at 12,850. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 12,950 and
then at this week’s high of 12,980. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at the
overnight low of 141 24/32 and then at 141 16/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at this week’s high of 142 14/32
and then at 143 even. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Wednesday’s high of 131.03.0 and then at 131.16.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.23.5 and
then at 130.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today as trading
has turned choppy and sideways. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage, but need to show more power
soon to keep it. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.37 and then
at 79.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 78.81 and then at the February low of 78.43. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading firmer early today and near
this week’s nine-month high. Bulls still have good upside
near-term technical momentum. In April crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at this week’s high of
$106.72 and then at $107.50. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $106.00 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. The key “outside
markets” are mildly bullish for the grains today, as the
U.S. dollar index is weaker while crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes are steady to firmer. Soybean bulls still
have some upside technical momentum and soybeans are
presently leading price action in the entire grains
complex. Corn trading has turned choppy. Traders are
awaiting Friday’s USDA annual ag outlook conference supply
and demand projections.
 

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