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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--February 29

Feb 29, 2012

Wednesday, February 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil prices have backed well down from stiff technical
resistance at the $110-a-barrel level. It will likely take
a significant escalation in the Middle East tensions to
push nearby Nymex crude oil futures above $110. If that
does not occur, I look for crude to trade between $90 and
$105 in the near term, or longer.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit another fresh 3.5-year high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,385.00 and then at
1,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
Tuesday’s low of 1,364.80 and then at this week’s low of
1,353.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices poked to a fresh 11-year high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,650.00 and then at 2,675.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 2,625.00 and then at
Tuesday’s low of 2,607.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh four-year high overnight.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,050 and then at 13,100. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at Tuesday’s low of 12,945 and then
more stops just below support at 12,900. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at the
overnight low of 143 7/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at 144 even and then at this
week’s high of 144 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at Tuesday’s high of 131.28.5 and then at 132.00.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
131.13.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.05.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker early today and hit a
fresh 3.5-month low overnight. Bears have downside near-term
technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.36 and then
at 78.64. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 78.12 and then at 78.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading firmer early today. Bulls have
faded a bit this week. In April crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $108.00 and then at $109.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $106.20 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. The key “outside
markets” are mildly bullish for the grains today, as the
U.S. dollar index is weaker while crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes are firmer. Soybean bulls have upside
technical momentum, with corn and wheat bulls gaining some,
too, on Tuesday.
 

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