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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--January 18

Jan 18, 2012

Wednesday, January 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

I have read that some firms are predicting a bearish year
for the commodity markets. Some of those who are predicting
such cite a slowing Chinese economy as the main reason. I
don’t buy that argument. While China’s economic growth has
declined from around 10% annual GDP to around 9%, I would
not call that a significant slowdown. China remains a
commodity-consuming juggernaut. And other nations in Asia,
Africa and South America are also seeing stronger economic
growth, which means more demand for raw commodities. In my
opinion the only thing that will bring on a bear market in
commodities any time soon is a lurch back into a worldwide
economic recession, which is not likely.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high
of 1,302.30 and then at 1,315.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,281.30 and then at
1,272.70. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit another fresh two-month
high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the October high of 2,408.75 and
then at 2,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,387.75 and then at Tuesday’s low of
2,361.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,400 and then more stops just below support at
12,350. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Tuesday’s high of 12,515 and then at 12,550.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh four-week high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term support lies at 145 even and then
at the overnight low of 144 26/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance
lies at the overnight high of 145 12/32 and then at 146
even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last
week’s high of 131.23.5 and then at 132.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.13.0 and
then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker again in early trading
today, on more profit taking from recent gains. Dollar index
bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.37 and then at this
week’s high of 81.68. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 80.83 and then at last week’s low of 80.73.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading firmer early today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. In February
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $101.69 and then at $102.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $100.53 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. The markets are
still absorbing last week’s very bearish USDA data that did
produce chart damage to all the grains. The key “outside
markets” are in a modestly bullish posture this morning, as
the U.S. dollar index is weaker, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes are firmer. The dry and hot weather in
South America remains a somewhat bullish underlying factor
for corn and soybeans.
 

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