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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--January 20

Jan 20, 2012

Friday, January 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Note: I am out of the office this morning. My friend and fellow analyst/trader Ken
Seehusen produced my morning report. Ken's style is a bit different than mine, but I think
you'll also benefit from Ken's work.--Jim

The STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and is challenging weekly
resistance crossing at 2435.50 as it extends the rally off October’s
low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If March extends the rally off December’s low, weekly resistance
crossing at 2647.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 2335.17 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at
2442.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 2647.50.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2384.50. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2335.16.

The March S&P 500 index was lower due to light profit taking in
overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off October’s
low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off
December’s low, the reaction high crossing at 1331.40 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1274.62 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Thursday’s high crossing at 1311.30. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 1331.40. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 1291.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1274.62.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds were slightly lower in overnight trading as it extends
this week’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the
reaction low crossing at 141-10 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline this
winter. If March renews last week’s rally, December’s high crossing at
146-11 and then September’s high crossing at 146-12 are the next upside
targets. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 145-13. Second
resistance is December’s high crossing at 146-11. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 141-10.
Second support is December’s low crossing at 139-24.

ENERGY MARKETS

March crude oil was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some
of the rebound off last Friday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above this month’s high crossing at 103.74 are needed
to confirm an upside breakout of this winter’s inverted head and
shoulder’s pattern while opening the door for a larger-degree rally into
late-winter. If March renews last week’s decline, minor support crossing
at 95.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is this month’s
high crossing at 103.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level
of the 2011-decline crossing at 105.23. First support is last Friday’s
low crossing at 97.93. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
95.30.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some
of this week’s decline but remains below the broken October-January
uptrend line crossing near 80.99. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
Thursday’s breakout below the October-January uptrend line confirms that
a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-
degree decline during the last half of January. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 81.19 would temper the near-term bearish
outlook. If March renews the rally off October’s low, the 62%
retracement level of the 2010-2011-decline on the weekly continuation
chart crossing at 82.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.19. Second resistance is last
Thursday’s high crossing at 82.04. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 79.83. Second support is the reaction low crossing near
79.55.

GRAINS

March corn was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of
Thursday’s short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s decline,
December’s low crossing at 5.76 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.29 1/2 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 6.21 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 6.29 1/2. First support is Wednesday’s
low crossing at 5.92 1/2. Second support is December’s low crossing at
5.76 1/4.

March wheat was fractionally higher due to short covering in overnight
trading as it consolidates some of last week’s decline. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this month’s
decline, December’s low crossing at 5.77 1/4 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.27 3/4
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.27 3/4. Second resistance is
last Thursday’s high crossing at 6.48 3/4. First support is Wednesday’s
low crossing at 5.90.
Second support is December’s low crossing at 5.77 1/4.

March soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates some of this
week’s short covering rebound off last Thursday’s low. Stochastics and
the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.97 3/4 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews last
week’s decline, December’s low crossing at 11.04 1/2 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 11.97 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the
August-December decline crossing at 12.46 1/2. First support is last
Thursday’s low crossing at 11.50. Second support is December’s low
crossing at 11.04 1/2.


 

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