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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--January 26

Jan 26, 2012

Thursday, January 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Commodity market bulls were cheered by Wednesday’s FOMC
statement and Bernanke press conference. The more “dovish”
tone of the Fed has boosted commodity markets, led by gold.
The U.S. dollar index was hurt by the Fed’s proclamations
Wednesday, and at this point it’s not clear which way the
dollar index will trend in the near term. It could be that
the dollar index trades choppy and sideways for at least
the near term, or longer. I believe it would be a
miscalculation to just assume the dollar index will now
trend solidly lower in the wake of the FOMC.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls have upside momentum as prices hit a
nearly six-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,335.00 and then at 1,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,316.00 and then
at 1,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh 11-year high
Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at Wednesday’s high of 2,469.00 and then at
2,480.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,451.25 and then at Wednesday’s low of 2,436.75.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices Wednesday hit a fresh eight-month high.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
12,688 and then more stops just below support at 12,650. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,600 and then at Tuesday’s high of 12,630. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term support lies at 142 even
and then at the overnight low of 141 23/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 142 26/32
and then at 143 even. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s high of 131.12.5 and then the January high of
131.23.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.00.0 and then at
the overnight low of 130.26.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today
and hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Bears have gained
fresh downside near-term technical momentum recently. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 79.65 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 79.23 and then at
79.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading higher early today. Bulls have
regained upside technical momentum. In March crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at $101.00 and
then at $102.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $100.00 and then at the overnight low of $99.44.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were solidly higher in overnight trading. The key
“outside markets” are in a bullish posture for grains this
morning, as the U.S. dollar index is weaker, while crude
oil and the U.S. stock indexes are higher. Traders will
closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales
report. U.S. cash corn and soybean basis levels are firming
up, which is also a bullish clue for those markets.
 

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