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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--January 3

Jan 03, 2012

Tuesday, January 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The first trading day of the new year sees a “risk on” attitude
among traders and investors. Stock indexes, crude oil and gold
prices are sharply higher, while the U.S. dollar index is weaker.
Iran and U.S. tensions are trumping the European Union debt
crisis today. Some stronger manufacturing data out of China today
is also bullish for the commodity markets. The commodity markets
are starting out the new year in a bullish mood.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh nine-week high overnight. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the October
high of 1,288.70 and then at 1,300.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,260.00 and then at last week’s low of
1,243.10. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh three-week high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight
high of 2,324.25 and then at the December high of 2,344.75. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 2,300.00 and then at 2,284.50. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh five-month high overnight. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 12,300 and
then more stops just below support at 12,250. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 12,400 and then at
12,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as
the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 12/32 and
then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight
high of 143 30/32 and then at 144 16/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to beaerish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131.00.0 and then at last
week’s high of 131.07.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low
of 130.15.5 and then at 130.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today, on
some profit taking from recent gains. Dollar index bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.25 and then at
80.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.97
and then at 79.55. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading solidly higher early today. Trading
has turned choppy at higher price levels. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage, but there is stiff overhead
resistance when prices push above the $100-a-barrel level. In
February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at last week’s high of $101.77 and then at the
December high of $102.56. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $100.00 and then at the overnight low of
$99.65. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Markets were closed overnight due to the holiday. Grain market
bulls have gained upside near-term technical momentum recently
and are heading into the new year with a head of steam. The dry
weather in South American corn and soybean regions is a
significantly bullish fundamental for corn and soybean futures at
present. I look for more commodity fund money to flow into the
grain markets in the first quarter of the new year.
 

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